| Just when you think HRC has no remote chance on earth to catch obama in popular vote, some pundits are saying that she actually has one. Of course, they rely on the ridiculous idea that you count Florida & Michigan's popular vote. Here's how the theory goes, as put by one commentary for real clear politics.
"However, it is possible that she could counter Tuesday's blowout with two big blowouts of her own in the next two weeks. This could undo most of the damage done by her big loss in North Carolina, and put her back on track."
First, you start with West virginia. Rasmussen put her up by 29% with 17% undecided, ARG has her up 40%. Assuming 50% of the 660,000 registered Dems vote (26% turned out in 2004), and Hillary wins by 30%, you could see her net around 214,500 votes. Including the FL & MI popular vote, along with the "estimated" cacus turnout done by real clear politics, Obama currently leads by 197,698 votes. If HRC does get 214,5000 out of West Virginia, and Obama gets 116,000 votes, Obama will have a lead of 11,024 votes.
Then we have Oregon & Kentucky. Obama will definitely beat her in Oregon, and most likely by 15% or so. Unfortunately, according to pollster.com, HRC is beating Obama in Kentucky by 35%-40%, thus she'll likely net more votes on that night. Next we have Puerto Rico, where the last poll had Clinton up by 13%. Assuming there's a high turnout (the last election there had 70% turnout), she'll likely net some, and maybe a lot, votes out of there. Lastly, we have South Dakota and Montana, both states which Obama should win, but these states do not have many people and thus may not be enough to match the votes Clinton got out of Puerto Rico.
So where does this lead us in the in? It'll may mean HRC will claim a popular vote win, solely relying on FL & MI. |
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