Clinton's popular vote argument still alive?

by: boomersun

Fri May 09, 2008 at 21:38

First remember the rule. If HRC can do it, she will, no matter how ridiculous it may seem.

boomersun :: Clinton's popular vote argument still alive?

Just when you think HRC has no remote chance on earth to catch obama in popular vote, some pundits are saying that she actually has one. Of course, they rely on the ridiculous idea that you count Florida & Michigan's popular vote. Here's how the theory goes, as put by one commentary for real clear politics.

"However, it is possible that she could counter Tuesday's blowout with two big blowouts of her own in the next two weeks. This could undo most of the damage done by her big loss in North Carolina, and put her back on track."

First, you start with West virginia. Rasmussen put her up by 29% with 17% undecided, ARG has her up 40%. Assuming 50% of the 660,000 registered Dems vote (26% turned out in 2004), and Hillary wins by 30%, you could see her net around 214,500 votes. Including the FL & MI popular vote, along with the "estimated" cacus turnout done by real clear politics, Obama currently leads by 197,698 votes. If HRC does get 214,5000 out of West Virginia, and Obama gets 116,000 votes, Obama will have a lead of 11,024 votes.

Then we have Oregon & Kentucky. Obama will definitely beat her in Oregon, and most likely by 15% or so. Unfortunately, according to pollster.com, HRC is beating Obama in Kentucky by 35%-40%, thus she'll likely net more votes on that night. Next we have Puerto Rico, where the last poll had Clinton up by 13%. Assuming there's a high turnout (the last election there had 70% turnout), she'll likely net some, and maybe a lot, votes out of there. Lastly, we have South Dakota and Montana, both states which Obama should win, but these states do not have many people and thus may not be enough to match the votes Clinton got out of Puerto Rico.

So where does this lead us in the in? It'll may mean HRC will claim a popular vote win, solely relying on FL & MI.

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Clinton's popular vote argument still alive? | 2 comments

correction (0.00 / 0)

Correct, HRC would get 214,000 out of WV, but net 98,000, leading to Obama's lead of around 99,000.

by: boomersun @ Fri May 09, 2008 at 20:53:07 PM CDT

Nope. (0.00 / 0)

Obama gained 26,000 in Ohio after provisionals came in, and RCP hasn't updated. NC and PA will also likely shift in Obama's favor when certified with provisionals.

I can see Clinton winning by a combined 200K to 300K in WV and KY. I also think Oregon (90K), MT (at least 15K) and SD (at least 10K) combined will bring in around 125K net for Obama. So net for Clinton at 75K-175K from where RCP has it now at 820K, except adjust Obama's vote on provisionals overall throughout the whole race at least 60K.

Best case for Clinton, that leaves Obama up 650-750K w/o MI and FL, and PR not factored in. Given that popular vote is only a tool of persuasion for supers, and 0.000000% of undecided supers think 0 votes for Obama in Michigan is truly "the will of the people," there is no way Clinton can make the case she wins this metric in any clean way.

By the time PR votes, the supers will have decided this thing en masse (before the May 31 meeting).

by: PocketNines @ Fri May 09, 2008 at 22:51:15 PM CDT