| Here's my prediction. Clinton will unfairly claim a popular vote win.
This is based on three assumptions, (by the way, I included the new 26,000 votes recently awarded Obama from the provisional ballots in Ohio)
#1: FL & Michigan are counted
#2: Obama receives all of the "uncommitted votes" out of Michigan, while Hillary gets her votes out of Michigan
#3: The numbers include "estimates" from caucus states.
Now here's how I came up with my numbers. Please feel free to double-check my math if you think it is incorrect and I'll change it. Lastly, I do not agree that Michigan should be counted at all, nor Puerto Rico. However, the Clinton campaign will, so we might as well figure out how they're gonna look at this. And yes, I know the popular vote doesn't matter. But it matters to the Clinton campaign (and some super delegates), so we're gonna be hearing abou it. The margins out of Kentucky and West Virginia are generous to Clinton, but not inconceivable. |
| Including FL, MI (obama gets uncommitted votes) and estimates from caucus states, Obama currently has a 461,888 popular vote lead. This will be the baseline number.
First, we have West Virginia. To allocate turnout, I will just say 42% of voters will turnout since that is the average of all the primaries thus far. There are 821,433 total Dem & Unaffilated voters in West Virginia. West Virginia allows Dems & unaffiliated voters to vote. Assuming 42% of them show up, we'll have 345,001 total votes. Let's say Clinton wins 70-30 in West Virginia, a generous margin to Clinton but one not impossible, as polls have shown Obama receiving only 27% of the vote. This would give Clinton a netgain of 138,000 votes.
So after West Virginia, Obama's popular vote lead is down to 323,888
Next, we have Kentucky. Again, let's be generous to Clinton and give her another 70-30 win. This is possible, with several polls showing Obama in the high 20s. Kentucky has 1,629,845 registered Democratic voters (http://www.kentucky.com/news/state/story/393155.html) . Let's assume 42% turnout, this would mean 684,534 voters vote. From a 70-30 victory, Clinton would net 273,814 votes.
So after Kentucky & West Virginia, Obama would lead in the popular vote by 50,074 votes.
Next we have Oregon, where Obama should do well in. Let's assume Obama wins by 56-44%, which is about what the latest Rasmussen poll shows him winning by. Oregon has 803,042 registered Democrats. Let's again assume 42% vote. This would mean 337,277 votes vote. Assuming Obama wins by 12%, he would net 40,474 votes.
So after Kentucky, West Virginia, and Oregon, Obama would be leading by 90,548 votes.
Next we have Puerto Rico. There are 2,000,000 registered Democrats. While 80% did turnout for that gubernatorial election, let's assume again that it goes with the national average and 42% turnout. In this instance, 840,000 democrats would turn out to vote. And let's assume that Clinton wins by 13%, which the latest and only poll shows. Therefore, Clinton would net 109,620 votes
So after Kentucky, West Virgina, Oregon and Puerto Rico, Clinton would be ahead by 19,072 votes.
Next we have Montana. Montana has 519,000 registered Democrats. Assuming 42% turnout, we have 217,980 votes. The only poll ever done by Montana showed Clinton with 10% lead, but that was way back in December. Let's give Obama a 6% win in Montana. He may win by more, but it's conceivable that it could be 5%. In this instance, he would net 12,989 votes.
So after Kentucky, West Virginia, Oregon and Puerto Rico, Clinton would be ahead by 6,083 votes.
Lastly, South Dakota. The only poll of that state had obama winning by 12%, so let's go with that number. South Dakota only has 190,421 registered Democrats. Assuming 42% turnout, we'll have 79,976 votes. If Obama does win by 12%, which would be 56-44%, he would net 9,598 votes.
So our grand total, including Michigan, FL & estimates from caucus states, would be Obama winning the popular vote by 3,515 votes.
Without Michigan counted, Obama would win by 93,656.
Now this projection is a very rough estimate. It really depends on how much Clinton wins Kentucky, West Virgina and Puerto Rico by since they are the biggest 3 primaries left to go. If Obama can close the margin just a little bit, or if the turnout is low, then Obama will likely be ahead in the popular vote in the end. Closing the margins in those states is more important than increasing his margins in Montana or South Dakota. Even if Obama wins Montana and South Dakota by more than expected, he will likely only increase his margins slightly since those states don't have many voters. |
