an obama/novick primary win in changes oregon to lean dem (0.00 / 0)

and will deliver a novick win in the general; novick's way ahead in the crosstabs for the 35 and under crowd. lemme see if i can find the link...

end the blurring--vote steve novick for u.s. senate in oregon

---

by: petrichor @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 16:44:33 PM UTC

here's the details (0.00 / 0)

from loaded orygun:

Also strongly benefitting from the youth vote is Steve Novick, with 35% of the under 35 vote--the rare sight of a candidate outpolling 'undecided' (32%) for a change! His lead is 24 points, and if there is a significant undercount of youth voting turnout in this race, those Obama votes also look to be bigtime Steve votes.

the SUSA results:

Candidate <35    Obama
Merkley    11%    20%
Novick     35%    28%

though, to be fair, much like clinton merkley has the edge amongst women.

end the blurring--vote steve novick for u.s. senate in oregon

---

by: petrichor @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 16:57:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I find it interesting... (4.00 / 1)

How the some of the bluest-state Democratic challengers have gone nowhere so far (Tom Allen) or are fading a bit (Al Franken), where the races in Alaska, Texas, and North Carolina have essentially jumped out of nowhere over the last two months.  

In a way, I think this is good for the country at large.  Obviously we should defeat any Republicans we can, but defeating Santorum-esque wingnuts is proportionally better than taking out the Susan Collins of the world.  

The likely result is that the Republican "moderates" will survive as a valid force within the Republican party going into 2010, which could hurt the Democrats in 2010 as Linda Lingle, Jodi Rell, and Arnold Schwarzenegger transition onto the national stage, but will potentially be good for the country, provided enough progressive economic legislation like the EFCA gets through.  

---

by: telephasic @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 17:11:40 PM UTC

Franken's Fade (4.00 / 1)

He's done a poor job confronting his recent problems with his business finances.  Yes, he's taken care of the back taxes issue - in some cases he actually over-paid the taxes! Yes, he's taken care of the unpaid workers' comp. issue.  But he's done very little to stem the developing spin on those issues - in fact, his down-playing and blaming it all on "accountants" has allowed the "he can't be trusted to run the nation when he can't run a business" notion to take hold.

I support Franken and I've donated to his campaign, but he really has to get out in front of this issue and take on Coleman much more directly and substantively.  Norm is a scrappy politician - this race is no cake-walk for Franken.  Thus far, he's allowed Coleman and his supporters to dominate the the discussion and define him as a political neophyte that owes his success to a few witty books that are basically mean-spirited, anyway.  That ain't the Franken I know - but he's not effectively confronting that spin.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

---

by: SpitBall @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 17:26:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maine (0.00 / 0)

what the heck actually happened (or didn't happen) in Maine? At the getgo this was supposed to be a top tier race and now it's basically fallen by the wayside. Anyone have any clue or insight?

My Silver State - Nevada's Progressive Community Blog

---

by: Sven @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 21:13:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen shows Hagen (NC) ahead (0.00 / 0)

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

48-47 Hagen over Dole
Similar time frame to the PPP poll

---

by: tietack @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 17:17:44 PM UTC

Worst possible time (0.00 / 0)

These predictions are based on polling taken at the worst possible time for Dems -- the midst of a bitter and divisive primary that has temporarily weakened Dem voter enthusiasm. What happens in November will be driven by how the Obama campaign shapes the political atmosphere. Unless he screws up badly, which is extremely unlikely, a wave of excitement about change and a fresh start will sweep the country and boost every decent Dem candidate. McCain will help by personifying the failed current regime.

Unless Obama makes the mistake of tacking to the right in his campaign and turning off his supporters, Dems should pick up 8 or 10 Senate seats.

---

by: DaveW @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 17:29:35 PM UTC

North Carolina EVEN Accroding To Rasmussen (0.00 / 0)

Wanted to blog about this yesterday, but had too much on my plate...

Better than evern,, actually:

Election 2008: North Carolina Senate
North Carolina Senate: Hagan (D) 48% Dole (R) 47%
Sunday, May 11, 2008

Democrat Kay Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, easily won the Democratic Primary last Tuesday night and starts the general election campaign essentially tied with incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in North Carolina Hagan attracting 48% of the vote statewide while Dole earns support from 47%. A month ago, Dole led Hagan by thirteen percentage points.

Hagan currently leads by three points among women while Dole wins by three among men. Hagan leads among voters under 50 while Dole leads among older voters.

Both candidates are popular with the state voters-at least before the campaign season gets under way. Fifty-six percent (56%) have a favorable opinion of Dole while 53% offer positive reviews of Hagan.

Dole is supported by 85% of Republicans, Hagan by 80% of Democrats, and Dole leads by nine points among unaffiliated voters. The incumbent is hurt by the declining value of the Republican party label. Nationally, the number of people who consider themselves to be Democrats has risen to record highs in recent months. The partisan gap (the number of Democrats minus the number of Republicans) has grown to a full ten percentage points in the early phase of Election 2008.

Hagan apparently intends to take full advantage of this partisan reality. She recently reminded Tar Heel voters that " Elizabeth Dole votes with President Bush 92 percent of the time.... you are not representing the interests if you are voting straight-party like that with Bush all the time. That is not what North Carolinians want."

North Carolina is defintely in play for both President and Senate, and this alone should be enough to spread their resources to the breaking point--especially when Obama pounds McSame with being Bush III, and McSame has to choose between the base and swing voters--and by implication, Dole has to do the same.

Sweet!

Welcome to the Mid-Atlantic, North Carolina!

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

---

by: Paul Rosenberg @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 17:45:08 PM UTC

An oversight Chris (0.00 / 0)

You forgot Maine.

---

by: Jon Niola @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 17:48:17 PM UTC

Tom Allen can win it! :) (0.00 / 0)

eom

---

by: Jon Niola @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 17:49:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hagan, Hagan, Hagan (0.00 / 0)

Chris, Tietack, let's spell our candidates' names correctly.

---

by: KCinDC @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 17:51:38 PM UTC

Spelling mistake, but (0.00 / 0)

But it begs the question on name recognition - the Rasmussen data suggests a higher "don't know" w/r/t Hagan's Favorable/ Unfavorable numbers.

which suggests that Hagan's numbers have room to grow as the campaign goes on. AFAIK, she hasn't run statewide before.

---

by: tietack @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 19:11:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maine and MS (0.00 / 0)

By the strict criteria stated, that the Democrat polls within single digits, Maine does indeed belong off this list. However, there have been polls in Mississippi placing Barbour ahead or within single digits, I believe.

---

by: thesleepthief @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 18:22:26 PM UTC

Ugh (0.00 / 0)

I mean Musgrove, obviously.

---

by: thesleepthief @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 18:23:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perfect (0.00 / 0)

Then I can express my frustration and vote for McCain.
Since the senate and Congress will be democratic, no problem then.

I'm not saying that's what I will do but the though crossed my mind more than once.

---

by: TaiChiMaster @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 19:38:01 PM UTC

Besides (0.00 / 0)

after 4 more years of McBush - support for the GOP will be colder that yesterday's piss, right?

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

---

by: SpitBall @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 19:45:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Main problem with that (0.00 / 0)

is that the President controls foreign policy. I could totally see McCain escalate the conflict in Iraq, launch air strikes in Iran, horribly screw up our policy with Pakistan, China, Russia, etc. etc. He could do a lot of damage in four years and Congress would be basically helpless to stop him. Also, domestically we'd never get UHC among a number of other things.  

---

by: Korha @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 22:27:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oregon Smith-Merkley (0.00 / 0)

The Oregon Smith vs Merkley contest actually belongs in the "toss up" category since it is within the margin of error. Reporters like to say that 'candidate x is ahead, but it's a "statistical tie"', which is nonsense. Such results mean the two are indistinguishable based on the data. And the trend favors the Dems. Both Merkley and Novick are solid liberal/progressive. Smith is running scared. He gave an anti-war speech a while back when it became clear that he was going to be in trouble in November, which was a total flip flop and not convincing to some people. He is another one who cultivates a "moderate" image but votes with the Bushies where it counts. He has a lot of money, so it may take some out-of-State financing to beat him. If he's ever to be unseated, this is the year. Frankly, I think taking the Senate is as important as taking the White House. We will need to tie him to Bush relentlessly.

---

by: DeanOR @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 19:25:37 PM UTC