No Drama Left In Remaining Nomination Contests

by: Chris Bowers

Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:02

As Matt noted below, Obama is going to get crushed in West Virginia tonight. In fact, crushing victories look par for the course the rest of the way out:

Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule

State Date O % C % P. Del Obama Del Clinton Del

West Virginia May 13 24.3% 61.3% 28 9 19

Kentucky May 20 30.7% 58.7% 51 18 33

Oregon May 20 53.3% 39.0% 52 30 22

Puerto Rico Jun 01 37.0% 50.0% 55 24 31

Montana Jun 03 -- -- 16 8 8

South Dakota Jun 03 46.0% 34.0% 15 8 7

Sub-Total June 03 -- -- 217 97 120

Pelosi Club Jun 04 NA NA 6 7 -1

Total June 21 -- -- 223 104 119

Which leads us once again to the competing campaign delegate counts:

Projected Obama Campaign Delegate Count

Type Obama Clinton Edwards Remaining 50% + 1

Pledged 1,594 1,423 19 217 1,627

Super 284 276.5 0 233.5 --

MI + FL 184 184 0 0 NA

Projected 104 119 0 -223 NA

Total 2,166 2,002.5 19 227.5 2,208.5

Current polling projects that Obama only needs 42.5 superdelegate endorsements between now and June 3rd in order to clinch the nomination on June 4th, at least according to his campaign's count.

Projected Clinton Campaign Delegate Count

Type Obama Clinton Edwards Remaining 50% + 1

Pledged 1,591.5 1,425.5 19 217 1,627

Super 289 285.5 0 275.5 --

Florida 67 105 13 0 NA

Michigan 31 47 5 45 NA

Projected 104 119 0 -223 NA

Total 2,082.5 1,982.5 37 314.5 2,208.5
'
The Clinton campaign count doesn't help her that much, as Obama only needs 35.8% of the remaining superdelegates, Edwards delegates, and Michigan delegates in order to secure the nomination. It buys her time, but really only until June 15th, and does not change the outcome. Don't expect superdelegates to accept what will be a clearly bogus argument on the popular vote, either. And, as a final problem, one of her pledged delegates switched to Obama today.

Ah, I'll miss the nomination at a glance series. What are your predictions for tonight?

Chris Bowers :: No Drama Left In Remaining Nomination Contests

Tags: Delegates, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, Montana, Kentucky, Oregon, West Virginia, nomination at a glance, (All Tags)

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No Drama Left In Remaining Nomination Contests | 6 comments

My prediction for WV.... (4.00 / 1)

Clinton wins by over 40 percent and nets out 12 delegates. If Obama can turn out more voters than expected, he may only lose 8.

Also, your Montana delegate allocation should be changed. Although Montana only has 1 CD, it allocates its delegates based on the old map when it had 2 CDs. As such, I think Obama should be favored to win both and take the delegates by a 9-7 margin.

by: PsiFighter37 @ Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:27:49 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

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interesting (0.00 / 0)

So it seems the bonus at-large delegate Montana got (for scheduling in June) is effectively allocated to the loser (unless the margin is very large.) That's amusing.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

by: Hopeful in NJ @ Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:54:49 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

easy win for Clinton...so what? (0.00 / 0)

I predict tonight won't be quite as bad as the few polls that were taken indicate. I just can't see Clinton having her largest point spread in a state that even she can't plausibly claim to be one of her home states. I look for a 62-38 popular vote split or thereabouts. I predict a lot of spinning from Clinton, Wolfson, Mcauliffe, etc. about hard working white voters, how all the previous contests including the ones just last week don't count and West Virginia is the most important state, how Clinton is the strongest candidate against John McCain, and of course a lot of appeals to donate money to her bankrupt campaign. Chris Matthews and company will make half-hearted efforts to push Matt Stoller's "embarrassing" and "scary" spin but it will be clear that even they don't really believe Hillary has a real path to victory anymore.

by: redwards95 @ Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:42:09 AM CDT

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Time to start doing your House charts (4.00 / 6)

Here we are with potentially 30+ seats to gain. It's time to start handicapping the House.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

by: Mimikatz @ Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:04:21 PM CDT

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Seconded (0.00 / 0)

I loved those in 2006, was pretty much the sole reason I went to myDD. Can't wait to see them back! Senate too?

And while we're requesting, how about a Presidency At A Glance series?

by: themann1086 @ Tue May 13, 2008 at 14:51:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If I'm Being Honest (4.00 / 1)

What are your predictions for tonight?

Young David Archuleta sings three earnest, uplifting anthems, squinting through his dead, dead yes, holding the microphone in his left hand while making sweeping gestures with his right.

David Cook has one tremendous performance and two underwhelming ones.

Syesha Mercado will be solid, but she's going home tomorrow. Welcome to the boomtown.

by: Adam B. @ Tue May 13, 2008 at 13:53:18 PM CDT

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No Drama Left In Remaining Nomination Contests | 6 comments