No Drama Left In Remaining Nomination Contests

by: Chris Bowers

Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:02

Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule

State	Date	O %	C %	P. Del	Obama Del	Clinton Del
West Virginia	May 13	24.3%	61.3%	28	9	19
Kentucky	May 20	30.7%	58.7%	51	18	33
Oregon	May 20	53.3%	39.0%	52	30	22
Puerto Rico	Jun 01	37.0%	50.0%	55	24	31
Montana	Jun 03	--	--	16	8	8
South Dakota	Jun 03	46.0%	34.0%	15	8	7
Sub-Total	June 03	--	--	217	97	120
Pelosi Club	Jun 04	NA	NA	6	7	-1
Total	June 21	--	--	223	104	119

Which leads us once again to the competing campaign delegate counts:

Projected Obama Campaign Delegate Count

Type	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Remaining	50% + 1
Pledged	1,594	1,423	19	217	1,627
Super	284	276.5	0	233.5	--
MI + FL	184	184	0	0	NA
Projected	104	119	0	-223	NA
Total	2,166	2,002.5	19	227.5	2,208.5

Current polling projects that Obama only needs 42.5 superdelegate endorsements between now and June 3rd in order to clinch the nomination on June 4th, at least according to his campaign's count.

Projected Clinton Campaign Delegate Count

Type	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Remaining	50% + 1
Pledged	1,591.5	1,425.5	19	217	1,627
Super	289	285.5	0	275.5	--
Florida	67	105	13	0	NA
Michigan	31	47	5	45	NA
Projected	104	119	0	-223	NA
Total	2,082.5	1,982.5	37	314.5	2,208.5

'
The Clinton campaign count doesn't help her that much, as Obama only needs 35.8% of the remaining superdelegates, Edwards delegates, and Michigan delegates in order to secure the nomination. It buys her time, but really only until June 15th, and does not change the outcome. Don't expect superdelegates to accept what will be a clearly bogus argument on the popular vote, either. And, as a final problem, one of her pledged delegates switched to Obama today.

Ah, I'll miss the nomination at a glance series. What are your predictions for tonight?