Maps: Where are the Superdelegates?

by: dreaminonempty

Thu May 15, 2008 at 13:36


My curiosity got the better of me today and I went over to DemConWatch and counted up how many superdelegates have endorsed from each state or territory.  A moving target, of course; the map already needs an update!  

Here's the map:

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Click to enlarge.

The color of the state shows the margin among declared superdelegates only.  The size of the circles is proportional to the superdelegate lead in a given state.  

Below, a comparison to the pledged delegate map, some trivia and an update to the county-by-county results map.

dreaminonempty :: Maps: Where are the Superdelegates?
The most striking feature is the shut-out in the north-central part of the country.  Obama's superdelegate lead would not be possible without the strong support of superdelegates in states that Don't Count because they're small, red states, many with caucuses.

In the Intermountain West: MT, UT, ID, WY  Obama 13, Clinton 1.
In the Plains: ND, SD, NE, KS, OK  Obama 27, Clinton 2.

For both regions together, that's 95% of superdelegates for Obama.

Goodness, maybe folks don't like being told they Don't Count!  

There is one state where Obama has no superdelegates, and that's Arkansas.  The top five states for Obama are Illinois, California, Wisconsin, DC, and Massachusetts, accounting for 27% of his superdelegates.

There are eight states where Clinton has no superdelegates.  The top five states for Clinton are New York, California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Texas, accounting for 41% of her superdelegates.

The bravest superdelegate, in my opinion, is Marianne Spraggins of New York, the only one of 46 declared New York superdelegates to support Obama.

Here's the map showing primary and caucus results and pledged delegate leads:

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Click to enlarge.

Comparing the two maps, the superdelegates seem to swing more to extremes, although part of that is home state effects.  Also, it's clear how much better Clinton did in West Virginia than nearly every other state.

County Maps

While I'm at it, here's the updated maps following the West Virginia election:

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Click to enlarge.

No surprises from West Virginia, except perhaps a little more support for Edwards than neighboring states.  See my previous diary for maps of education, population, race and ethnicity in the region.  The cartogram on the right, where the size of each county is proportional to its population, shows how even within the Appalachians, cities show moderate to strong support for Obama.  The region of very strong Clinton support, while extensive in geography, is more limited in population.

Notes:  Michigan county results are estimated from county results for Clinton and Uncommitted and exit polls, Texas county results are from the primary, and Kansas results are shown by State Senate district.

Cross posted at DailyKos.


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Do the maps show where the uncommitted delegates are? (0.00 / 0)
The answer's probably obvious to someone who can read maps, but not to me.

Nope. (0.00 / 0)
Glancing at the list, it looks like there are a fair number in states that were close, states that have not yet voted or voted recently, and Florida and Michigan.

[ Parent ]
Interesting you chose these colors green and yellow. (0.00 / 1)
Obama gets Corn Belt supers = ethanol
Clinton gets "Green" energy Supers in the blue states

Obama was set up by the ethanol (and nuke power and clean coal)lobby, and it is interesting that this is clear picture of that: where Clinton gets the Green supers, like these Senators who voted against the Cheney Oil Bill
Boxer (D-CA)
Carper (D-DE)
Chafee (R-RI)
Clinton (D-NY)
Corzine (D-NJ)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Murray (D-WA)
Nelson (D-FL)
Schumer (D-NY)

Obamas initial support to run came from the dirty energy lobby. For example,

partners from the Atlanta-based law firm Alston & Bird donated $33,000 to Obama in the first 90 days of 2007.

Alston & Bird has a large lobbying division in Washington. It billed its clients nearly $3.9 million in 2006, ranking 35th among Washington lobbyists. Alston boasts on its website that it offers clients "unique experience with how policy is made" and knows "the people who make it: government and agency officials; members of Congress and their staff."

Daschle joined Bob Dole (R)  at Alston & Bird in 2003, and both now are Obama advisors through The Bipartisan Policy Center

...Obama's biggest single source of corporate money - $160,000 - came from executives at Exelon Corp., the nation's largest nuclear power provider, and its subsidiary, Commonwealth Edison, an Illinois utility.

Exelon spent $500,000 to influence policy in Washington last year.
 



John McCain vetoes every Environmental Bill already.

Obama Supported ADM... (4.00 / 1)
Even knowing what "ethanol" did in terms of input-to-output ratio and its effects on global warming. He seemed all too willing to stand by them when he got campaign contributions, but has done little on other alternative energy sources - other than lift, whole-cloth Clinton's Green Jobs Policy for his feel-good speech in Cape Girardeau, MO.

My grandmother was from Cape Girardeau - a loyal Democrat through and through, Harry Truman-style. They don't call Missouri the "Show Me State" for nothing. He'll have a hard time there - as evidenced by his paper thin win in the primary.

Thanks a load, though, Claire McCaskill!


[ Parent ]
Exelon details. (4.00 / 1)
I'm hesitant to conclude that energy policy is the reason these supers endorsed Clinton (except Chafee), as most have given other, in my opinion stronger, reasons for endorsement.  Not to mention I don't think Clinton has much of an energy policy either.

Obama has received $179111 from Exelon employees according to Open Secrets.  This includes 28 donations of $2300.  It depends on how you define it, but it looks like over half of the donors are executives.  Most of the donations seem to be early last year.

A lot of those 28 max donors also maxed out to John McCain, it's interesting to note.  

I don't like Obama's energy policy very much, but $179000 just isn't very much compared to his $200 million dollar haul or whatever it's up to by now.  I don't think we should worry that dirty energy companies are wooing him with cash, I think we should worry that his energy policies are perhaps more than a bandaid - maybe a tourniquet - but what the patient needs is an intensive care unit.


[ Parent ]
an intensive care unit. (0.00 / 0)
Indeed.

Heres the details of the plan that works like that:

What Should Al Gore Do?

John McCain vetoes every Environmental Bill already.


[ Parent ]
Goodness, You're Right! (4.00 / 1)
People don't like being told they don't count: Florida, Michigan, West Virginia.

Then, of course, there are all those other states east of the Mississippi where Barack lost the over 45- crowd that doesn't buy Barack's feel-good rhetoric, those without college degrees, those who don't live in urbia, those who don't have $100K lying around at their disposal. And for the religiously-challenged, Catholics and Jewish voters don't take kindly to being told to piss off, either.

Goodness, what are we going to do about that?

For some good reading, might want to check out David Broder's WaPo OP-ED today: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Also informative is John Mercurio's OP-ED over at Barack Central (aka MSNBC): http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24...


People don't like being told they don't count: (0.00 / 0)
Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

West Virginia counts, it just isn't determinitive on its own. Michigan and Florida do not and should not count and the Clinton campaign agreed with that until they started to lose.

Barack did ok with the demographics you listed west of the Mississippi and nobody is telling those to the east to ''piss off''. Does he have work to do to gain their support versus McCain? Sure. But you are making the usual Clinton supporter error of equating primary results and support with general election support. Some links to better and more informative reading with regard to this are listed below.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107...

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


[ Parent ]
Not reflected in the superdelegates. (0.00 / 0)
The superdelegate support of Clinton and Obama in FL, MI and WV is not overwhelmingly in favor of Clinton like it is overwhelmingly in favor of Obama in parts of the West.  This implies that the superdelegates as a whole, at least, do not feel that Obama is belittling their state, although some certainly may.  Actually, both MI and FL have an unusual amount of superedelegates still undeclared.

And it's clear that those other states east of the Mississippi have a pretty unremarkable split in superdelegates considering the vote in each state, with the exception of New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.  

If you have a quote where Obama or his chief campaign strategist told those without college degrees, those who don't live in cities, those who don't have $100K lying around at their disposal, Catholics or Jews to "piss off," I would love to see it.  I know plenty of Obama supporters online have said such things, and they were clearly in the wrong.


[ Parent ]





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