Dem Defense (0.00 / 0)

I should have mentioned that we have 8 open Dem-held seats.  Of these, only AL-05 (Cramer), a R+6 district, and possibly OR-05, are in doubt. A state legislator, oncologist Parker Griffiths, is the main caniodate in AL-05 (6/3 primary) and OR-05 has become its own comedy show.  Primary 5/20.  

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

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by: Mimikatz @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 22:51:24 PM UTC

Correction for NM data (0.00 / 0)

NM primary is 6/3.

The candidate in NM-01 is Martin HeiNrich not Heimrich. He is the likely nominee as none of the other candidates have as yet campaigned much.

NM-02 has a hotly contested primary between McCamley and Teague. Teague has been running TV ads for a month now and I have yet to see McCamley's run a TV ad but I hear they started recently or are about to begin. The Republican's likely nominee has been running his own ads for about 10 days now.

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by: The Grand Panjandrum @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 23:35:44 PM UTC

Thanks For Posting This, Mimi! (0.00 / 0)

I was looking at SSP's page earlier today, wondering whether I should do something about it over here.

I decided not to, but felt a twinge of guilt.

Now, not so much!

I actually think we're going to do better than 12-16 seats out of these.  I'm pretty much expecting a total GOP collapse as the multiplying catastrophes hit critical mass.

Heck, it's even conceivable that the Paulistas might sit this out, in hopes of winning primaries next time and putting their own folks in place.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 23:46:32 PM UTC

Ethically-Challenged and Week Republican Incumbents (0.00 / 0)

This is a good start, but the criteria you have used has resulted in some districts that should be considered competitive this cycle.  We also need to look at districts where the Republican incumbent is ethically-challenged and has a fight on his or her hands.  There is AK-AL, where both the CD and the Senate seat appear to be within reach due to Republican ethics.  Then there is NY-13, where Vito Fossella, the Republican incumbent, was recently arrested for drunk driving and then it came out that he has been having a five year extra-marital affair, which started when his girlfriend was still, well, a girl.  Oh yeah, and he also fathered a child with her.  I have not checked on the status of this district in a few weeks, but I believe the Republican incumbent is going to resign or already has.  Plus, it's the only Republican held CD in New York City.

I have also wondered whether other Republican held districts, where the incumbent is running, can be put into play.  There are Republican held congressional districts where the district appears favorable to Democrats based on the Cook PVI rating, but are considered safe Republican seats.  For example, the DE-AL CD has a PVI of D+7 and is held by Republican Michael Castle.  Does this irritate the crap out of anyone other than me?  DE-AL is rated as safe Republican by CQ politics and for good reason.  Castle has $1.5M cash on hand; his would-be Democratic rivals all have less than 3,000 cash on hand, as of March 31, 2008.  Castle also won his last election by 17 points.  But, in 2004, he won by over 39 points and in 2002, he won by over 44 points.  If the Democrats closed by 27 points from 2002 to 2006, they could close another 17 points between 2006 and 2008 in a D+ 7 CD in this environment.    

Now, I don't know much about this district.  It's just one of the more egregious examples of a blue CD held by a Republican.  If someone knows more about DE-AL, please comment.

In 2006, Richard Pombo was the poster child for Republican representative that the netroots concentrated on and helped to defeat.  So, who are the worst Republicans in winnable districts in 2008?  Who's going to be the Richard Pombo of 2008?

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by: gunnar @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 23:53:02 PM UTC

I'm working on 2 incumbent diaries (4.00 / 3)

One on the 20 or so top targets and one on longer shots.  Maybe this weekend for the first, which covers seats with PVI of R+5 or better, plus seats with challengers with 84% of the incumbent's cash or better plus ethically challenged.

Right now I'd nominate Virgil Goode VA-05 for the Pombo of 2008.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

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by: Mimikatz @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 00:16:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup (0.00 / 0)

Tom is gonna kick his butt. Actually, we have a whole stable of cartoon characters in Virginny, all of whom deserve to be hoisted on separate petards. Thelma Drake? Looney Tune. Eric Cantor -- seriously, the biggest nutter in the Congress. With Virgil, I actually think it's mostly an act, but a dangerous one. Rob Wittman is the quiet new rubber stamp in the 1st, but the rest are unbelievably batshit crazy.  

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by: Ron @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:54:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pombo vs. Goode -- Just for Fun (4.00 / 1)

Year                          2006                    2008
Creepy Incumbent   Richard Pombo          Virgil Goode
CD                           CA-11                    VA-5
Who Loves Ya          Big Oil                   Big Tobacco
Donor in Jail         Jack Abramoff          Mitchell Wade
Run if You're A      Spotted Owl                Moslem

Fun With Tobacco: Pombo was nicked-named "Marlboro Man" by George Bush; Goode worried that his elderly mother would be denied "the one last pleasure of smoking a cigarette on her hospital deathbed."

Worst Idea Pombo: Rewrite Endangered Species Act to remove requirements to designate critical habitat for endangered species.

Worst Idea Goode: Reduce legal immigration from countries outside Europe.

Turncoats:  Pombo planned rape of environment as Chair of House Resources Committee; Goode was originally a Democrat, becoming a Republican in 2002.

Quotable Pombo: "A lot of people want to paint me a certain way and try to make it out so I fit this caricature that has been created as an anti-environmentalist and all of the negative things. Quite frankly it's not true."  

Quotable Goode: ". . . if American citizens don't wake up and adopt the Virgil Goode position on immigration there will likely be many more Muslims elected to office and demanding the use of the Koran."

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by: gunnar @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 05:25:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Vito Fossella Is A Stand Up Guy! (0.00 / 0)

Except when he falls down drunk.

Then, not so much.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 00:21:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Vito's Campaign Slogan (4.00 / 1)

All Vito Fossella needs now is an allegation of spousal abuse.  Then he could run on this slogan, "Knock em down, knock em up, knock em round.  Vito Fossella for Congress."

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by: gunnar @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 05:33:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very Funny! But You Need A Course In Remedial Poesy (4.00 / 1)

It should be, "Knock 'em up! Knock 'em down! Knock 'em around!  Keep Vito Fossella Around--For Congress!"

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 18:25:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're ending better. (0.00 / 0)

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by: gunnar @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:55:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have a good feeling about MO-09 (0.00 / 0)

I met two of the candidates at the state convention, and came away impressed, especially with Judy Baker.

Join us at the Missouri community blog Show Me Progress!

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by: clarkent @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 00:25:48 AM UTC

About NM01 (0.00 / 0)

Unfortunately Heimrich seems to be in the lead right now because he's been running for over a year, has lots of name recognition, and is much loved by the DCCC.  

The sad fact is that he's not a good debater, not a good campaigner, spends way too much time staring at himself in the mirror, and has already been painted as an empty suit does not bode well for the Fall. To make matters worse he will be running against a fairly popular Republican in November who can easily beat him.  Either of Martin's primary opponents are better candidates for the Fall but no one seems to care about that so looks like we are set to elect a fairy young Republican to Congress.

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by: mwfolsom @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 00:27:18 AM UTC

Thank You For This (0.00 / 0)

I've really been wanting more detail. I've been reading all this stuff about how the Republicans are scared shitless because of special elections, and then I see predictions of maybe 20 or 25 Democratic pickups in the House and 7 in the Senate and think: "It that all there is?"

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by: C-Pluckhahn @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 00:54:09 AM UTC

Why is IL-18 likely Rep? (0.00 / 0)

do we not have a good candidate?  One would think that with Obama at the top of the ticket, the district only being R+5, and it being an open seat, we would have a better shot?  Anyone know about this?

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by: bennytoothpick @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:58:13 AM UTC

IL-18 (0.00 / 0)

I don't know much about the race, but Callaghan seems to be a political newcomer and her fundraising has been limited.  It may be due to a late entry into the race, and the race bears watching.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

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by: Mimikatz @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 15:16:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MN - 3 (0.00 / 0)

It's Ashwin Madia, and he's awesome.  Marine, Iraq vet, lawyer, first generation American.  He's going to be a star someday.  And he's almost definitely going to win this seat.

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by: New Left 2004 @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 05:25:53 AM UTC

Cook Political Report? (0.00 / 0)

Good work, Mimikatz!

Question:  Why are you working from Swing State Project ratings rather than Cook Political Report or CQ Politics?

I don't know enough about the ingredients that each of these observers put into their ratings to argue one way or another. I'm just curious about your reason(s) for this choice.

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by: hardheaded liberal @ Sat May 17, 2008 at 19:50:41 PM UTC