In addition to the 24 open seats discussed here, there are 20 top targets and, for the forthcoming last installment, 20 or more long shots. Incumbency is worth at least 5 points, so these seats all have a PVI of R+5 or better, or a strong candidate who at this point is raising nearly as much (>80%) or more money than their target or running against a scandal-plagued incumbent. Here are the seats, again with the incumbent, PVI, Dem candidate and Swing State Project ranking.
AK-01 (Young) R+14 Ethan Berkowitz Tossup
CT-04 (Shays) D+5 Jim Himes Lean R
FL-13 (Buchanan) R+4 Christine Jennings Likely R
FL-24 (Feeney) R+3 8/26 primary, Kosmas Likely R
ID-01 (Sali) R+19 Walt Minnick Likely R
IL-10 (Kirk) D+4 Dan Seals Lean R
MI-07 (Walberg) R+2 Mark Schauer Lean R
MI-09 (Knollenberg) Even Gary Peters Lean R
MO-06 (Graves) R+5 8/5 primary, Barnes Lean R
NC-08 (Hayes) R+3 Larry Kissell Lean R
NY-13 (Fossella) D+1 9/9 primary Tossup
NY-29 (Kuhl) R+6 Eric Massa Lean R
NV-03 (Porter) D+1 8/12 primary, Dina Titus Lean R
OH-01 (Chabot) R+1 Steve Dreihaus Lean R
OH-02 (Schmidt) R+13 Dr. Vic Wulsin Lean R
PA-15 (Dent) D+2 Sam Bennett Safe R
VA-05 (Goode) R+5 Tom Perriello Safe R
VA-10 (Wolf) R+5 Judy Feder Likely R
WA-08 (Reichert) D+2 Darcy Burner Lean R
WV-02 (Capito) R+5 Anne Barth Likely R
The two "safe R" seats were added because of the Dem PVI in PA-15, although Dent has proven to be a tough opponent, and the stellar fundraising of Tom Perriello in VA-05, which is a R+5 district. I might have moved that seat to Likely R. Some others we might have liked to see on this list such as CO-04 (Musgrave) are relegated to long shots at this point, primarily because of fundraising. But it's early, and some candidates have just gotten started. I'd guess at this point that we could take at least half of these seats, some of which (MI-07, NC-08, NY-29, WA-08) I might upgrade to tossups. Some of our best opportunities may come from the longshots. If we get 5 or more from that list, that would make at least 30 seats. But expect the picture to brighten as the campaign progresses.