Outlook for Congress: Part 3, Longshots

by: Mimikatz

Mon Jun 16, 2008 at 21:10

Initially, NY-13 moves from "Top Target" to "Open" with the retirement announcement from Vito Fossella.  That now makes 25 Open Seats we can contest.  I'm moving VA-02 (Drake) to Top Target because of the favorable picture in VA.  It is R+6 and Gerald Nye is the Dem.  

What makes a longshot?  A heavily GOP seat with a stellar candidate, strong to phenomenal fundraising, lots of grassroots support, and unpopular incumbent. These are some of the factors that can propel a candidate to victory even in a strongly Republican district.  Or maybe it is a slower-starting candidate in a more favorable district.  In any event, here are some districts to watch, with the incumbent, PVI, challenger and, because most are "Safe R,"  a brief comment about what makes it worth watching.

AL-03 (Rogers)              R+4     Josh Segall  He's raising cash.
AZ-03 (Shadegg)           R+6     Bob Lord   Ditto.
CA-45 (Bono-Mack)        R+3    Bornstein
CA-46 (Rohrabacher)     R+5  Debbie Cook Huntington Beach mayor raises cash
CA-50 (Bilbray)              R+5   Nick Leibham
CO-04 (Musgrave)         R+9    Betsy Markey
FL-06 (Stearns)             R+8   Tim Cunha
FL-08 (Keller)                 R+3   8/25 primary                                          
FL-09 (Bilirakis)              R+4   8/25 primary
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen)     R+4   Annette Tadddeo
FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart)     R+6   Raul Martinez
FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)     R+4   Joe Garcia
IL-13 (Biggert)                R+5   Scott Harper
IN-03 (Souder)               R+16  Michael Mantegano
IN-04 (Buyer)                 R+17   Nels Anderson
OH-14 (LaTourette)        R+2    Bill O'Neill
KS-04 (Tiahrt)                 R+12   Donald Betts, Jr.
NJ-05 (Garrett)               R+4    primary, Shulman
NV-02 (Heller)                R+8    Jill Derby
PA-03 (English)               R+2   Kathleen Dahlkamper
PA-18 (Murphy)               R+2   Steve O'Donnell
SC-01 (Brown)                R+10 Linda Ketner Local businesswoman raising cash  
SC-02 (Wilson)               R+9     Rob Miller
TX-07 (Culberson)          R+16    Michael Skelly  local businessman  raising cash

That's 24 longshots, some really longshots, to watch.  The 3 South Florida seats are interesting, particularly as Obama tries to appeal to younger generation of Cuban-Americans who are more interested in contacts with Cuba than the elders.  All 3 challengers look promising and are raising respectable amounts of money.  Many rate these as "likely R" rather than safe R.  The two South Carolina seats are also interesting, especially SC-01.  They have been extensively covered at Swing State Project.