* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-01 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology and Analysis
I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
- For each state, take all polls conducted for the state over the previous thirty days, and average them.
- If one polling firm has more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days, take only the most recent poll.
- Every state has at least two polls. If two polls were not conducted in a state over the last thirty days, use the two most recent polls.
- If only one poll has been conducted in a state, then only use that poll.
- No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease. Also, when the amount of data increases, I will be able to start projecting the swing, "toss-up" states. Right now, however, there just isn't enough data to push those states into one camp or the other.
Right now, the electoral map significantly differs from the fairly static ones we grew so used to in 2000 and 2004. In particular, far more states are in either the "toss-up" or one of the "lean" categories than in the past two elections. There are several reasons for this:
- Lack of polling information: Right now, there is relatively little recent polling information for most states. As such, the state averages include polls taken from late February through mid-May. This time frame includes some very positive stretches for Obama (late February, early March and May) and some very negative times for Obama (mid-March through late March, and late April). Because of the wide range of times when these polls were taken, Obama will appear stronger in some states than he really is, and weaker in other states than he really is. As we receive more data, the map will probably approach a more familiar color scheme.
- Rasmussen Dominates Averages: Simply because they put out so many polls, right now most state polling has been conducted by Rasmussen. This can skew some results, since Rasmussen has been about four or five points more favorable to McCain than other polling firms this year.
- Newfound Democratic Strength. The general pro-Democratic and anti-Republican mood in the country will probably push some surprising states, like Alaska and Texas, out of the "Solid McCain" category. Also, Democratic organizing in virtually every state during the primary season will also result in surprising Democratic strength in unexpected areas, like North Dakota.
- Obama's Senior Weakness: A third factor that will cause the maps to look different is Obama's weakness among self-identified Democratic seniors. Until he shores up that base, surprising weakness in states like California, Florida and Massachusetts should continue.
So, for a variety of reasons, some methodological, some dealing with the general mood of the public, and some specific to the candidates themselves, the 2008 map starts out quite a bit different from the 2000 and 2004 maps with which we have all grown familiar. It remains to be seen if the 2008 will start to approach something more "normal" as the campaign plays out and more data becomes available. For right now, however, there are a surprisingly large number of swing states in this election, and some very different maps seem possible this year.
Tomorrow, I will be rolling out my first Senate Forecast of the year. On Wednesday, comes the first House Forecast. |
STATE BLOGS
