Obama VP Rundown - 20 candidates, with analysis and rankings

by: Syrith

Thu May 22, 2008 at 14:14


In a matter of weeks or months, Barack Obama will select a vice presidential candidate to run with him this fall.  

In order to get my head around the complexities of the Vice Presidential Selection Process and potential/desired outcomes, I scoured sites from HuffPost, to DKos/MyDD, Open Left, RCP, electoral college, and others to identify all of the candidates being bandied about as either front-runners or reasonable dark horse contenders.  I stuck them all in a spreadsheet.  

Next, I went through the same process to identify criteria by which a candidate might be selected.  These criteria fall into two broad categories, which may be represented using the following principles:

1) ELECTORAL STRENGTH OF TICKET: VP should help Obama win electoral votes, or at least not hurt his chances to win them

2) CAPABILITY / FUTURE PRESIDENTIAL POTENTIAL: VP should make a good president someday, next election or if Obama leaves office

I added a variety of criteria which affect these principles to the spreadsheet.  

Below the fold, I include the Top 20 VP candidates being discussed, and a personal ranking with analysis and arguments for why I've placed them where I have.  This includes a set of strengths and weaknesses that I've identified for each, using this brainstormed list of criteria that draw upon the 2 principles above.    

Syrith :: Obama VP Rundown - 20 candidates, with analysis and rankings
Here are the criteria I've considered:

CRITERIA, IN VERY APPROXIMATE ORDER OF PRIORITY
Should Be / (Should Not Be)
-  Progressive / (Conservative)

-  Swing or Red State or Regionally Strong / (Blue State or Regionally Weak)

-  Demographically Strong - Race, Gender, Age*

-  Charismatic, Good Surrogate / (Boring, Ugly, Awkward, Wonky)

-  Democratic / (Republican/Other)

-  Obama Supporter / (Clinton Supporter)

-  Always Anti-War / (Formerly Pro-War)

-  Post-Partisan, Change and Hope message / (Partisan, Cynical)

-  Governor / (Senator, Rep, out of office, other)

-  Military/Foreign Policy Experience / (None)

-  Environment/Other Domestic Policy Strengths / (None)**

-  Interested in being VP / (Uninterested)

*demographics could factor both ways - I've weighted "female" as positive electorally, "non-white/minority/young" as mixed, with positive and negative cascading effects

**I place a high premium personally on environmental issues.  Keep in mind that my rankings are NOT intended to be predictive of actual outcomes, NOR are they intended to be my interpretation of the best pick representing everyone else's interests - some strengths are more important to me than others, as they doubtless are for you.  I hope this provides a useful framework either way.  

Here is the link to the VP spreadsheet
, with 20 top candidates and analysis!

Please read it over, and weigh in on the comments if you like what you see, think it's intriguing, stupid, unhelpful - whatever ya got!

Poll
Was this rundown helpful to you?
Yes, VP list was comprehensive, criteria relevent
Yes, but VP list or criteria incomplete/imperfect
No, VP list and criteria very poor/wrongheaded
No, another reason
No, too much navel-gazing, get outside and work!

Results


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What a Campaign! (0.00 / 0)
Let's hope Obama picks a terrific Vice President.  

Interesting (0.00 / 0)
The choices seem pretty slim. Polling heavily favors Edwards right now, and progressives like him. Too bad he said no.

A long list of imperfect options, really.  


I wonder why (0.00 / 0)
He said no.

Honestly we have a much better shot of winning than we did in 04 and he likes Obama a helluva lot more then he liked Kerry. He's polling well. He wouldn't have to get vetted any more.

I wonder if Obama asked him to at least be considered if he would say yes.  

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power


[ Parent ]
Imperfect maybe... (0.00 / 0)
but not weak, by any means.  Don't you see choices on this list, Chris, that look better than Lieberman did in 2000, and even than Edwards did in 2004?

[ Parent ]
Thanks... (0.00 / 0)
for doing the work.

Personally, I don't think being an Obama supporter per se should weigh very heavily if at all. Edwards would probably be a strong selection but he's only been on board for a week or so. Al Gore (who I realize wouldn't accept) still hasn't endorsed Obama, but would be an extremely strong choice. In any case, I think we can assume that virtually every name on your list will be an Obama supporter after Denver. That's all that really counts, isn't it?

I strongly agree that we should be pulling for a progressive candidate here. Chuck Hagel, Michael Bloomberg, etc; thanks but no thanks. And I have big problems with a Reagan Democrat like Jim Webb for his FISA/Telco stance, (not to mention his women in the military statements).

Personally, I'd feel that both Barack and the country would be well served by:
Wes Clark
John Edwards
Sharrod Brown
Kathleen Sebelius
Bill Richardson
Brian Schweitzer


I'm with you on Schweitzer (0.00 / 0)
Other advantages:  rural/ag appeal balances Obama's urban appeal;  he's Catholic;  he's a straight talker who speaks his mind (which Obama would want);  he's a highly popular Democratic governor in a Red State; lived and worked overseas, speaks Arabic; he's young (52) and vital; he hates lobbyists (a huge issue in the Fall that is already bubbling up); national press likes him.

The negatives you list are balanced by Obama.

The one thing we don't know about Schweitzer is this: does he want and can he handle the 24/7 spotlight and parsing of every word you say freakshow that is Presidential politics.

 


Have you considered Bill Bradley or Graham? (0.00 / 0)
Some other people have been talking about Graham to help win Florida, and I'd like to see more people talk about Bradley.

It is discouraging that some of the best options (Gore and Brown IMO) have indicated they're not that interested.

I'm also not sure being out of office should be considered a weakness especially if there are any recently retired or term-limited governors worthy of consideration.

Given Obama's minority status, choosing a white male may be wise as well.

That being said, I understand your criteria are more a personal wish list than strategic thinking.

I guess I lean towards Feingold or perhaps Bill Ritter ... I believe Obama has indicated he doesn't feel his VP needs significant foreign policy experience, and lack of general experience would reinforce the change meme.


I hope Edwards can be swayed. (4.00 / 1)
I strongly endorse John Edwards for VP.

He helps the ticket - a LOT.

He has been vetted and approved, no surprises or negatives.

He adds to the message of Change, not just winning but moving the mandate of change forward. And with a big win too.

He protects Obama, and Obama's mandate for change.  A 'balanced' ticket like Webb could threaten the outcome of a change Presidency if disaster strikes.

JRE can contribute to the drive to involve more and more people in governing their democracy.

His supporters are very very motivated, getting these people to rest will be a full time job.

And if anyone can pass this along to John "being VP is not that same as running for VP." In 8 years no one will remember you ran twice. And you will be the presumptive, for all the good that does.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


I think No is NO (0.00 / 0)
in this case. I suspect he's soured on politics generally, and remember (I hate to say it) his wife is very ill. He may not want to spend the last years of their life together attending other peoples' funerals.

Plus I do know (second hand) that he doesn't think very highly of Obama as a candidate (Clinton either) on the issues he cares about.  


[ Parent ]
poppycock and balderdash (0.00 / 0)
Edwards respects the abilities of both candidates, that he has very strong principles and policies is to count in his favour. That he may have "soured on politics" is even more outlandish. But it's fun to speculate I guess.

Edwards whatever his role in the upcoming Democratic Party resurgence, it will be central, and he will be admired for his dedication.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
David Walker (0.00 / 0)
Great spreadsheet and rundown in your notes. I'm a big fan of Schweitzer, so happy to see him at #1.

Here's another candidate. Is everyone familiar with David Walker? Former head of the Government Accountability Office (the country's chief accountant for 9 years), he recently resigned to focus on waking the public up to the fiscal crisis. He's been holding a series of forums around the country to educate people.

He appeared on CNBC today explaining the challenge and what we need to do. As much as I like Obama, I'm concerned whether he has the stomach to tackle the real change that is needed.

Here's the full list of Walker's CNBC segments in order (the first two cover the meat of it):

http://www.cnbc.com/id/1584023...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/1584023...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/1584023...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/1584023...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/1584023...

The editor of Roll Call wrote this week that Obama or McCain should pick Walker as VP:

http://durantdemocrat.com/arti...

Incidentally, Walker was the one who took Cheney to court in 2002 to try and obtain release of documents from the energy task force.


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