Gimme That Old Time Delegate Count

by: Chris Bowers

Wed May 28, 2008 at 13:53


I had promised myself that I wasn't going to write about the Democratic presidential nomination campaign anymore, or at least that I wouldn't write about it as an unresolved, ongoing process anymore. However, with very few new general election polls after the holiday weekend, what's one more for old time's sake?

Anyway, in advance of the Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting this Saturday, DNC lawyers have issued an advisory opinion that the DNC is required to strip Michigan and Florida of at least half their delegates. Assuming for a moment that Florida and Michigan are seated with half delegations based on the results of the January 22nd primaries, we are presented with the following delegate chart:

DNC Advisory Ruling Delegate Count
Type Obama Clinton Edwards Remaining 50% + 1
Pledged 1,660.5 1,499.5 7 86 1,627
Super 318.5 280.5 0 197 --
Florida* 37 56.5 5.5 6.5 NA
Michigan** 13.5 40 0 25.5 NA
Total 2,029.5 1,876.5 12.5 314.5 2,116.5

* = Florida pledged delegates currently split 105 Clinton, 69 Obama, and 11 Edwards, based on the results of the January primary and two Edwards pledged delegates flipping to Obama. Superdelegate totals in the state currently stand at 8 Clinton, 5 Obama, and 13 uncommitted.
** = Michigan pledged delegates current split 73 Clinton, 22 Obama, and 33 uncommitted, based on the results of the January primary and April district conventions. Superdelegates totals in the state currently stand at 7 Clinton, 5 Obama, and 17 uncommitted.

And here are the future projections:

Future Delegate Projections
Type Obama % Clinton % Obama Clinton
Puerto Rico 37% 50% 24 31
Montana 52% 35% 9 7
South Dakota 46% 35% 9 6
Pelosi Club -- -- 7 -1
Sub-Total -- -- 49 43
Grand Total -- -- 2,078.5 1,919.5

This leads to a grand total of Obama 2,078.5, Clinton 1,919.5, Edwards 12.5, and 222.5 uncommitted.  Obama would be 38 delegates away from officially clinching at this point, and Obama + Edwards would be 25.5 away from officially clinching. If reports of Obama banking three dozen or so superdelegates in order to officially clinch on June 4th or June 5th are accurate, then Obama will comfortably clinch before the June 14th Michigan state convention.

So, barring something truly shocking, Obama will reach the magic number no later than next Thursday. The nomination campaign, and all major federal primaries will be over. From that point, we will have exactly five months to come together, crush Republicans, and build the enormous trifecta.  

Chris Bowers :: Gimme That Old Time Delegate Count

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Gimme That Old Time Delegate Count | 18 comments
typo? (0.00 / 0)
I'm pretty sure there's a small sum error in the "DNC Advisory Ruling Delegate Count" table - shouldn't Edwards' 18 delegates, plus 5.5 est. from Florida, total 23.5 and not 12.5?  
Re: typo (0.00 / 0)
I agree, and the typo is also carried through below where he says that Obama + Edwards is only 25.5 away from officially clinching.  In fact, he would be 14.5 away.

Not that it matters, though, Clinton's "closing argument" to Super Delegates was reported in Ambinder.  

http://marcambinder.theatlanti...

One can only hope that Obama can reach the magic number (whatever it turns out to be) sooner rather than later.  While I do not see Clinton's final argument going anywhere, I just do not want it as a distraction all of the way up to and through the convention at this point.  

[ Parent ]
Fixed (n/t) (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
basically the projections were right (0.00 / 0)
Obama's continued pickup of pledged delegates and add-on superdelegates put the race out of reach.  Clinton still requires an overwhelmingly large fraction of the super-delegates to support her.  

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
I played with CNN's calculator today (0.00 / 0)
and it would basically require Clinton to get 95% of the superdelegates even if you give her the favorable outcomes in MT, SD, (50%/%50% for both) and PR (60%/40%).

Not going to happen.

[ Parent ]
Typo 2? (0.00 / 0)
Hey Chris,

Shouldn't the delegate totals be reversed in MI with Clinton with 40 and Obama with 13.5?

Fixed (0.00 / 0)
Man, I'm really out of practice on these delegate counts. So many typos...
[ Parent ]
What's with the "banking" strategy? (0.00 / 0)
I get the desire to shut it all down immediately after the voting ends.  But why doesn't it make more sense to have them come out sooner, so that the June 3 elections put him over the top rather than the supers?

I'm sure Obama's campaign is smart, so can you explain why this option makes more sense to them?

Tim Wolfe

Unless, of course, you announce the supers on June 3 itself (0.00 / 0)
And then it makes that day a crushingly overwhelming day for him, and ends it more decisively than spreading the two events out would.
[ Parent ]
Hmm (0.00 / 0)
Interesting idea.  But couldn't that also look like stepping on the voters, given that it is organized by the campaign as opposed to supers just announcing on their own?

In any case, I was under the impression that the Obama campaign was thinking of saving them all up until a day or so after the last primaries.

Tim Wolfe

[ Parent ]
My theory... (0.00 / 0)
On June 3rd, Obama will release a press-release listing the dozens of Super Delegates at once as soon as or right before polls close so as not to step on the toes of the voters... but the number that are listed will be JUST SHY of officially clinching.  Then, once the votes are counted in the states, those returns will push him over the required number of delegates.

Networks declare victory.  Obama gives speech declaring victory.  Clinton... ?

[ Parent ]
Clinton pouts, whines, in a fury... (0.00 / 0)
...and takes it to the convention and beyond.

She will never, ever conceded, that is assured.

We will have to plan a post-primary strategy to deal with her attempts to destroy Obama and the Democratic party.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
It's about timing (0.00 / 0)
I think that the idea is for it to look like Obama is put over the top as the result of one of the remaining primaries.
[ Parent ]
let's speculate (4.00 / 1)
Besides the possibilities above, it may also be the decision of the remaining superdelegates, rather than Obama's campaign.    

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
[ Parent ]
Holy Smokes! (4.00 / 5)
Obama is going to win?!! Wow... and here I thought it was completely up in the air.  

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
The superdelegates (1.00 / 4)
are just politicians.  Although Clinton is looking like the stronger candidate versus McCain, they won't risk inviting the wrath of Obama's ascendant machine and the scorn of the beltway media.  It's no big deal for them if the nominee loses. Congress--and their careers--are in safe hands as long as they go along with the program.
RE: The superdelegates (4.00 / 1)
I saw that this comment had been "troll" rated by several users.  While I do not agree with all the sentiments in the comment, FWIW, I recommended this comment and therefore revived it from the "Hidden Comment" list because I simply do not believe that it is a troll comment.  
[ Parent ]
It's a troll comment (0.00 / 0)
The reason is because it has nothing at all to do with the subject of the post, or with any prior comments to the post.  It's designed to instigate precisely the same "argument" which happens in virtually any thread remotely tied to the primaries, Clinton, or Obama.  As such, it's an attempt to derail conversation from the subject matter at hand.

It's also a troll comment because it makes reference to preposterous things like "the wrath of Obama's ascendant machine."

These two factors make it an argument with no one, designed to stir up controversy and degrade the quality of discourse on this site.  I cannot fathom what utility anyone gains from that comment being visible.

If this was a post about the ethical decisionmaking of the superdelegates, it would be a stupid comment, but at least would be relevant to the topic.  Since it meets neither of those criteria, it deserves a troll rating.

[ Parent ]
Gimme That Old Time Delegate Count | 18 comments
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