Several elections tonight. In the Iowa 3rd, we have Bush Dog incumbent Boswell vs. progressive challenger Ed Fallon. In New Jersey, we have Incumbent, machine-bakced, but generally progressive Frank Lautenberg vs. corporate challenger Andrews. And, of course, we have the final presidential primaries in Montana and South Dakota. I will begin live-blogging returns here at Open Left at 8 p.m., when the first polls close in South Dakota and all polls close in New Jersey. All polls close in Montana and South Dakota at 9 p.m. eastern. Polls close in the Iowa 3rd at 10 p.m., eastern.
What Is At Stake Tonight
Momentum. Currently, Barack Obama is precisely tied with John McCain in national polls, and effectively tied with McCain at the state, electoral college level. The ideal scenario for Obama to pick up momentum this week is to win both primaries tonight, reach the magic number tomorrow, and for Clinton to give her "acknowledging reality" speech on Thursday. That would give Obama three consecutive positive days of press coverage, and allow the nomination campaign to end on a positive note for the nominee.
The nightmare scenario for Obama is if he actually loses one of the two primaries tonight. As unlikely as it seems, this is actually possible. Poblano predicts Obama to win South Dakota by only 5%, and ARG predicts Obama to only win Montana by 4%. (Granted, Poblano predicts a Montana blowout while ARG predicts a South Dakota blowout.) Given that the Clinton's have been campaigning in the two states much harder than the Obama's, it is not out of the realm of the possible for Clinton to sneak out a victory tonight. This would be terrible for Obama, since wrapping up the nomination after a loss is exactly the sort of "stumbling across the line" scenario that has hurt Democrats, such as Walter Mondale and Jimmy Carter, in the past. So, a double victory for Obama tonight, while not important in terms of winning the nomination, is important in terms of positioning for the general election.
More of what is at stake, along with my personal predictions, tonight in the extended entry.
Delegates: Montana's 16 delegates are split into two five-delegate districts, four at-large delegates, and two PELO delegates. The winner of each of the two five-delegate districts takes a 3-2 split, but 70.0% is required to earn a 4-1 split. The latter is highly unlikely, just as it is highly unlikely that Obama will reach the 62.5% needed at the statewide level to win the at-large delegates 3-1. Overall, the most likely scenario is for Obama to win both districts 3-2, for the at large delegates to split 2-2, and for the PLEO delegates to split 1-1. Look for a 9-7 Obama delegate victory.
South Dakota's 15 delegates include a single, statewide nine delegate district, four at-large delegates determined separately, and two PLEO delegates. Even though all of these delegates are apportioned based on the statewide vote, they are calculated separately. The winner of South Dakota earns an automatic 8-7 delegate split. If the winner reaches 61.112% of the two-candidate vote, the split is 9-6. If the winner reaches 62.501%, the split is 10-5. My money is on Obama winning 8-7, thus picking up 17 for the night. As I type this, those 17 delegates would put Obama within 15.5 delegates of the nomination.
Popular Vote: My latest calculation currently gives Obama a comically narrow lead of 357 votes in the "popular vote." If he ends up ahead by 24,000 or more, then he moves outside the margin of error according to this count. Reaching that number will probably require Obama to win the two states by an average of around 9-10%.
Bush Dog vs. Grassroots Test Case. Yesterday, Matt had a great summary of what is at stake in the Iowa 3rd tonight. Here is an excerpt:
So now, this is the rawest test of an internet fueled grassroots campaign with none of the bells and whistles of a Donna Edwards or Ned Lamont, up against everything the establishment can throw at a candidate. It's an interesting test case of paid media - this primary will demonstrate what percentage of primary voters have moved their information and political habits away from low information broadcast channels, and towards internet and a more social form of politics.
Big time stuff. As much as I would love for Fallon to win, I predict Boswell by 9%.
Corporate Dem vs. Progressive, Machine Incumbent: On the other side of the coin, tonight in New Jersey I hope that an older, machine-backed incumbent holds off a primary challenge. Senator Frank Lautenberg is facing a primary challenge from the hard to stomach Rob Andrews. While Lautenberg is expected to win easily, hopefully he will deliver the sort of crushing victory that will make it much harder for Andrews to run for this seat in 2014 when it will likely become open. I say Lautenberg by 18%.
What say you? Give your expectations and predictions for tonight in the comments.
