Man (4.00 / 5)

Looking at that table, I somehow suddenly have an uncontrollable desire to go play Breakout.

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by: mcc @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 00:31:41 AM UTC

I am optimistic about OH .. (4.00 / 3)

besides .. Ken Blackwell isn't there to fix things for the Rethuglicans any more .. and we'll win MI and Wisconsin .. and  PA up through Maine .. plus some states out West

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 00:45:17 AM UTC

It's definitely winnable (4.00 / 5)

Obama is polling ahead there at the moment, and Kerry came pretty close in a much weaker Democratic year.  But based on who's won which elections recently, there is cause for concern.

Not having to deal with Kenneth Blackwell and his opinions about the correct thickness of paper for voter registration forms (!) is what I had in mind with the comment about electoral shenanigans.

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by: Daniel De Groot @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 00:50:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Governor Strickland has tons of pull... (4.00 / 1)

...in Southern, Appalachian Ohio... That means a lot!  Plus, we will actually have a fair election here, unlike 2004. It will not be a cakewalk in Ohio.  We have huge racial problems here, even in the more "progressive" areas, but Kerry got very close here... We certainly can pull in the 100,000 votes that would have put him over the top.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

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by: lord_mike @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 03:56:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I bet (4.00 / 2)

if Obama can just hold the Kerry voters he will get far more then that in new voters.

And quite frankly I think Ken Blackwell might have stole the Ohio election in 04. There is a Democratic SoS now that will make sure everyone can vote.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

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by: Populista @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 05:01:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd pretty much agree (4.00 / 3)

you list MI twice though. I think you need a W in one of them.

Virgina isn't going to be easy but we will have the most popular politician on the ballot in Virgina and quite possibly a VP from Virgina (Warner, Kaine and Webb will all likely be in the dozen or so that are under serious consideration). It isn't a lock by any means but it is probably going to be a major swing state. Nevada and Ohio will be interesting to watch as the campaign goes on. They could get into a more competitive category but it's hard to tell.  I'd also put NC on the watch list as well as MO.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

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by: Populista @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 00:49:20 AM UTC

Wisconsin's Assembly (4.00 / 1)

It is, indeed, up for grabs.  Democrats think we have a good chance of taking the few seats we need to flip it (as well as to pick up a state senate seat or two), but I think we are counting more on Obama's coattails than the other way around.

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by: folkbum @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 00:50:34 AM UTC

Cool. (4.00 / 2)

Actually, knowing it's competitive matters.  If WI Dems think it's winnable, that should only help with turnout.

Coat tails is a tricky phenomenon, and I think it's possible for obama to help the WI assembly, and the WI assembly to help Obama without any contradiction.

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by: Daniel De Groot @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 00:52:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good Analysis, But... (4.00 / 4)

I found your chart a little hard to read.

This was easier:

State	2004 Pres	Gov	Senators	US House	State House	State Sen	Gov Race?	Senate Race?
CO	R 4.7%	D	Split	4D 3R	D	D	N	Y
MI	D 3.4%	D	2D	6D 9R	D	R	N	Y
NV	R 2.6%	R	Split	1D 2R	D	R	N	N
NH	D 1.4%	D	2R	2D 0R	D	D	Y	Y
NM	R 0.8%	D	Split	1D 2R	D	D	N	Y
OH	R 2.1%	D	Split	7D 11R	R	R	N	N
VA	R 8.2%	D	Split	3D 8R	R	D	N	Y
WI	D 0.4%	D	2D	5D 3R	R	D	N	N

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:08:19 AM UTC

How did you do that? (0.00 / 0)

I just said bgcolor=red/blue in the td tags.  But you're right, softer colours look better.

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by: Daniel De Groot @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:13:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually, They Look A Little Wimpy (4.00 / 1)

But the text is easier to read.  I've never found a really good middle ground.  But, I do waste less time trying to find it nowadays.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:40:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

RI (4.00 / 2)

Rhode Island is solidly Dem presidentially too.

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by: EricV @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:16:45 AM UTC

damn you (0.00 / 0)

I'll be long cold in the grave before I ever recognize RI

Not even a real island...

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by: Daniel De Groot @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:24:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ohio (4.00 / 4)

Your analysis is quite deficient in Ohio. We had 6 statewide elections in '06. We won five of them, several in blow outs. We didn't have the same type of success in house races, as I recall, though Zack Space won Bob Ney's seat. We made gains in both state houses, including eliminating the Republican's vote proof majority in the Senate, if I recall correctly.

The state swung blue in a very big way.

I like this method of analysis, but I think a more comprehensive look at each state would be more useful. Both a more thorough view of what happened in '06 and a little more about the history before that election and the circumstances of that election might be useful. We kicked ass in Ohio, which isn't really reflected in your chart, but Taft's single digit approval rating and the Ney scandal and the Ken Blackwell campaign (a true embarrassment, especially after his mishandling of the pres. election) all made it especially bad for the GOP there.

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.

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by: Sam L @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:28:13 AM UTC

Thanks (0.00 / 0)

Please tell me more.  This is an evolving picture, so knowing the OH State were nipping at the heels of the OH GOP does help.  

What were the statewide races?  Sec State?  AG?  Obviously we won the governorship.

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by: Daniel De Groot @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:37:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What? (4.00 / 1)

You missed the Ohio AG drama?

Not as good as Desperate Housewives, perhaps.  But better than all the rest.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:43:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably not, at the time (0.00 / 0)

But memories fade.  

I had decided to leave off lesser state offices like AG from this analysis so I didn't go looking for them.  Had to cut it off somewhere, and since which offices are elected versus appointed varies state to state this seemed like a good dividing line.

aha, well...

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by: Daniel De Groot @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:48:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sherrod Brown Beat Doug DeWine in 06 (4.00 / 3)

Sherrod Brown won the Senate race in Ohio in 06, knocking off the Republican incumbent.  In fact, the Dems did great in the statewide races, but not so great in the House races.  My memory is that the Republicans in Ohio did a great job of gerrymandering the congressional districts for themselves.    

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by: gunnar @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 02:24:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah (0.00 / 0)

I think I need columns for which party won the last senate elections in the state.  Brown won fairly handily as I recall.

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by: Daniel De Groot @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 02:30:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It wasn't a plus... (4.00 / 1)

...But Governor Strickland and all the democrats were very vocal about pushing him out quickly.  I don't think the scandal will taint the other races.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

---

by: lord_mike @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 03:58:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think that NV Gov Gibbons indiscretions will help us. (4.00 / 1)

The Republican governor is going through a messy divorce based on his infidelities.  He's also being accused of receiving bribes from a defense contractor.  In other states where the Republicans get involved in these types of shenanigans our party has made some gains.  

Now, if we can just catch them in some major scandal here in Florida.

John  McCain wants to privatize Social Security.

John McCain wants to put SS in hedge funds.

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by: SeaDawg @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:45:05 AM UTC

I have some hope (4.00 / 1)

For the clear shifts in the FL cubans taking place.  This quick hit shows something is up in Florida.

Hillary wins the state in a walk it seems, which should suggest Obama has some chance.  Guess we'll see where the state sits after Hillary officially suspends/concedes and the polling shakes out.

Crist also did something remarkable in allowing ex-felons to get the vote back.  It shocked me that a Republican would do that, since it will only help the Democrats.

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by: Daniel De Groot @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:51:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope that it does shift. (4.00 / 1)

We've seen some gains in state house seats here in the St Pete area and folks are getting pretty tired of some of the games played by our Republican dominated legislature.  We're having 15% across the board cuts in our universities while the legislature was busy arguing about banning "Truck Nutz".  

Crist occasionally exhibits some moderation but like McCain he tows the hard right Republican line on taxes and spending on public services.  

Jebbie still has a lot of control over this state and, through his surrogates, has put some pretty egregious stuff on our ballot.  We're going to get to vote on banning same sex marriage, giving private school vouchers, and repealing the separation of church and state in our November ballot.  Those initiatives will bring out the wing nut arm of the Republican party.  

John McCain wants to put SS in hedge funds.

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by: SeaDawg @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 02:14:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gibbons is as popular (4.00 / 2)

as our vice president.

NV also has two highly targeted House races which should help Obama.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

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by: Populista @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:56:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

MI (4.00 / 3)

MI's state house is up, state senate is not. There are some races that will flip there.

MI also has two of the top pickups: MI7, with Mark Schauer preparing to beat Tim Walberg, and MI9 with Gary Peters preparing to beat Joe Knollenberg.

The MI GOP is broke, as is the NH gop, so that helps a bit. Though obviously there's going to be a lot of national money coming in.

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by: emptywheel @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:57:35 AM UTC

Knollenberg is District 9 (0.00 / 0)

Walberg's district went 54-45 for Bush over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, but the congressman eked out a six-point win over Renier, while vastly outspending her. Knollenberg's district went 51-49 for Bush in 2004, and Knollenberg won by six points two years ago despite vastly outspending his opponent, Nancy Skinner.  Detroit Freep

Nancy Skinner was a progressive talk radio host on the air in MI who befriended and backed the Gov., which encouraged her to run.   She had no money and little party financial support.  There were even more close races that Dems could have picked up IF anybody had cared about winning those seats back then.  Oakland County is turning blue (to match Detroit), and as Oakland County (Detroit) goes, so goes the rest of the state.  I think Peters stands a good chance, but Granholm works against him.  She has been milquetoast against Bishop, Republican Senate Leader, and fighting a losing fight (MI economy for the past seven years).  Dems in this state don't blame Clinton for MI economy, but they should.  

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by: dkmich @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 09:14:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NM Should Join the Shoulds (0.00 / 0)

Based on the demographics, Native American, Hispanic, plus a little urban and high tech. Obama connects well with these Western states.

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by: MetaData @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 04:39:45 AM UTC

NM (4.00 / 3)

CD-01 (Tom Udall's seat will stay Dem)

CD-02 (Steve Pearce's seat is a toss up right now.)

The Democrat (Teague) has a name recognition advantage, but the district is pretty conservative. Even most of the Democrats in that CD would be Republicans in other states.

CD03 (Heather Wilson's seat is a toss up)

Although Martin Heinrich is the darling of the progressives he is an unknown quantity when it comes to his ability to organize and campaign. Darren White (R) is VERY popular with Republicans and is not hated by moderate Independents. White also has substantial name recognition because he is currently Bernalillo County sheriff and has served as the head of the state Department of Safety. If Heinrich can tie White to the Bush Administration (which shouldn't be difficult because he supports the war) then Heinrich will probably win in a close election. If he can't, White wins by 6+ points.

NM-Sen: The biggest gift of last night primary was Steve Pearce knocking off Heather Wilson for the Republican nod to be the sacrificial lamb to the Udall. Heather Wilson is a great GE campaigner. Unfortunately, with a low turnout yesterday, only the most fanatical members of the Republican base voted yesterday. In the southern part of the state she was considered a "librul" and Pearce is one of them. Game over.  Udall wins by 10+ even if he doesn't campaign well.

New Mexico will go for Obama and he will have very long coattails. Grassroot organizing has been strong here and several longtime Dem office holders were knocked out for better Democrats.

Keep your fingers crossed, but it looks pretty good right now. If Obama, and the fired up progressives here in NM keep momentum rolling it could be one hell of a GE for Democrats, and in particular for progressives.

I'll be out doing voter registration drives all this summer and keeping everyone posted about what I hear out in the field.

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by: The Grand Panjandrum @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 05:01:00 AM UTC

Congressional District Analysis (4.00 / 1)

Here's some information on Republican held Congressional Districts that should be targeted by Democrats in these states.  

CO - CO-4.  Rep Marilyn Musgrave (R) vs. Betsy Markey (D).  Musgrave won in 2006 with only 47% of the vote.  

MI  - As indicated by your analysis above, Michigan looks like a Democratic stronghold when you look at the statewide races.  Then you look at the congressional districts and it gets ugly fast.  Here are the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) ratings for the Congressional Districts held by Republicans in Michigan:

MI-4 (PVI R+13)
MI-6 (PVI R+2)
MI-7 (PVI R+2)
MI-8 (PVI R+2)
MI-9 (PVI R+0)
MI-10 (PVI R+4)
MI-11 (PVI R+1)

Look at those PVIs and then consider that the Dems have won the last three special election House races that had the following PVIs: MS-1 (PVI R+10); LA-06 (PVI R+7); and IL-14 (PVI R +5).  All but MI-4 should be targets, but I haven't done more research into these districts. The large number of potential congressional districts to target in Michigan and the fact that it's a key swing state for Democrats makes it particularly frustrating that the Democrats are having problems there right now.  

NV - There are three congressional districts in Nevada--one held by a Democrat and the other two districts are targets.  NV-2 is an R+8 district, which was an open district in 2006, but the Democratic candidate, Jill Derby got into the race late and lost that race by 4 points.  She hopes to win a rematch in 2008.  

In NV-3, here is incumbent Republican Jon Porter's declining margin of victory:

Year  Victory Margin
2002 + 19
2004 +14
2006 +2

Porter's toast in 2008.  (Or perhaps we'll be toasting his challenger with some tasty porter in 2008).  

NH - Two CDs, both held by Democrats after winning them in 2006.  This was the highlight of the 2006 election.  

NM -- The Grand Panjandrum already has it covered.

OH -- Like Michigan, another potentially rich target environment.  Here are PVIs for some Republican held districts:

OH-1 (PVI R+1)
OH-3 (PVI R+3)
OH-7 (PVI R+6)
OH-12 (PVI R+1)
OH-14 (PVI R+2)
OH-15 (PVI R+1)
OH-16 (PVI R+4)

VA -- People have been talking up the Virginia races.

There's Republican incumbent Virgil Goode in VA-5, who is bigot and an absolute wing nut on immigration.  His challenger, Thomas Perriello, seems like a genuinely good guy and has done a good job raising cash.

VA-11 is an open seat and is probably the best Democratic pickup opportunity in Virginia.  The Republican incumbent is retiring and this R+1 seat is in Northern Virginia, which has been moving towards the Democrats.  

VA-2 is held by Republican incumbent Thelma Drake, who barely held onto this seat in 2006.

WI -- As optimistic as I am about Democrats chances to pick up House seats, there do not appear to be any good targets in Wisconsin.  There are three Republican districts that all have strong incumbents, with lots of cash and there appears to be no well-funded challengers.    

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by: gunnar @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 05:17:51 AM UTC

Just call me (0.00 / 0)

TGP. We're all reasonably civil and friendly around here from what I can tell.

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by: The Grand Panjandrum @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 05:28:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why Would Anyone (0.00 / 0)

Pass up the opportunity to type "The Grand Panjandrum"?

"The Grand Panjandrum" is rather the sort of pseudonyme one would go out of one's way to mention.

But I do have one question.  Is there a "Not-So Grand Panjandrum?" Or a "Lesser Panjandrum?"  Or a "Somewhat Decent Panjandrum?"  A "Not Half-Bad Panjandrum?"

Inquiring minds want to know.

Have been for some time, in fact.  The possibility of a Panjandrum pantheon has been festering in my imagination. I've just been waiting for the right time to ask.  

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 12:16:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I dunno (0.00 / 0)

At 1AM, wishing I hadn't started the laborious project of trying to do a roundup of all these CDs in swing states, I might have taken a pass spelling out the Grand Panjandrum.  On the other hand, I was so grateful that someone had covered NM!  

Also, I wanted to know if the Grand Panjandrum is any relation to the Grand Wazoo.  

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by: gunnar @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 22:05:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gerrymandering (4.00 / 1)

My understanding is that Michigan and Ohio were both gerrymandered pretty badly, so House seats may not be a good metric. Would it be worth looking at shifts in 2006, particularly in state houses? That would seem to show basic partisan trends.

As far as ballot initivatives go, we do have a few weapons. Minimum wage issues, prescription drugs and statements calling for removal from Iraq all might help to move some votes in the right direction.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

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by: Englishlefty @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 11:00:08 AM UTC

Congressional delegations (4.00 / 1)

The Congress elected in 2006 is not the result merely of the 2006 election, it is also the result of a number of elections before it, that put most of the incumbents in place.  The re-election of an incumbent to Congress is not a very meaningful heuristic for judging the status of the state's electorate today, because it is in many cases showing the influence of the state's voters in the past more so than the present.

A more meaningful metric would be new members of Congress elected in 2006 - either to an open seat, or by defeating an incumbent.

Although no formerly Democratic seats turned Republican in 2006, some retiring Republicans were replaced with new Republicans, so it is actually possible for a state to show more R than D for 2006 by this metric.  Though I doubt you'll find that in many places.  Still, that's the meaningful stat; muddying it up by adding in the re-elected incumbents only hides the present with a bit of past data.

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by: cos @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 16:01:54 PM UTC

Colorado (4.00 / 1)

As mentioned above, CO-04 should be competitive this year.  Marilyn Musgrave won in 2006 by 46-43-11, with Democrat Angie Paccione (D) getting the 43 and Eric Eidsness (Ref, former R) getting the 11.  Musgrave spent plenty to save the seat and had help from the NRCC financially.  Currently, Betsy Markey (D) has raised more than Paccione did at the same point of the campaign.

The Colorado House is elected for 2 year terms, with a 4-term limit.  The Colorado Senate is elected for 4 year terms, with a 2-term limit.  So the House is up for reelection or new races and 1/2 of the Senate is up with some new races.

Dems have a 40-25 majority in the House and a 20-15 majority in the Senate.  The Senate is therefore more likely to change hands, just based on the numbers.  Overall impressions of the Dem majority I think are good, but the corporate media are doing their best to push a "do-nothing" legislature story and never miss a chance to describe Gov. Ritter as an enemy of businesses.

Colorado does have an anti-choice ballot initiative that would add a state constitutional amendment to define a fertilized egg as a person.  Interest groups are working to place a "right-to-work" initiative, which would change the state constitution by doing away with the process allowing employees to vote on whether they want to set up an all-union shop, on the ballot too.  In return, pro-labor groups are working to place a number (can't remember the exact number, three identified in an article released today) of initiatives on the same ballot.  Those are the worst that immediately come to mind.

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by: WeatherDem @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 16:39:07 PM UTC