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My choice would be Sherrod Brown. I know he's not on the official short list being circulated, and conventional wisdom weighs heavily against him because he's so "liberal," but I like this idea because it allows Obama to both double down on his own best attributes and make a more conventional electoral college math kind of play. Here's my thinking:
1. Like Obama, Sherrod is relatively youthful and is vital, full of energy, and appealing. And while he has been in DC longer than Obama, because of his populist outsider platform and image, he doesn't have the inside-the-beltway baggage of so many other candidates being discussed.
2. Unless Obama builds and maintains a big popular vote lead, over 6 points, this electoral college battle is going to be too close for comfort. PA, MI, and NH are all going to be challenging to hang onto from the Kerry states, and none of the Bush states we're going for are easy at all in a close race. That leads me to think Obama should pick someone who can provide maximum electoral college help in a big swing state. Ohio Gov. Strickland has taken himself out of contention, which I'm sorry about because he would have been a great possibility. Rendell's a possibility, but he is a total loose cannon with lots of insidery baggage. Kaine has even less experience than Obama, and isn't very exciting on the stump. Webb would be my top choice if it weren't for his horrible history on women's issues, but given the importance of bringing women into the fold, I think it's a bad idea to have someone with that history as the VP.
3. Speaking of women, while I have less fervent views on this than many people, my first choice would not be Hillary. There would be a lot of good things about it, but I've been convinced by all the ad nauseum debate that the negatives outweigh the positives. I also admit I'm a little nervous about the Bill Clinton soap opera factor.
Another woman was originally my first choice, with both Gov. Sebelius and Napolitano being appealing to me. But I have had one woman friend after another, including some Obama supporters, tell me that they think putting a woman on the ticket other than Hillary would be perceived as a slap at Hillary. I don't quite get that, but I've been convinced that this would be a real problem.
4. Sherrod's biggest weakness is the lack of national security cred (although he has served on the International Relations Committee, and the subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, so he's certainly not a novice on foreign policy). That is a downside, but the thing about the VP pick is that it can't be everything you want: there are just no perfect candidates out there. Whoever you pick for VP, you are giving up something, unless there's a youthful, appealing, widely respected, populist woman general from Ohio I'm not aware of.
5. Sherrod's other big weakness is that most of conventional wisdom DC punditry consider him too left. But as I argued the other day, I think this is the year to openly challenge the Republicans to an ideological debate. Besides, they are not going to stop calling Obama the most liberal Senator in the country even if he picks Sam Nunn as his VP. My final point here is that for all of Sherrod's "liberalism," he showed in 2006 his great appeal with working class voters. In rural Appalachian Meigs and Vinton counties, Bush won 58% and 55% respectively, while in Sherrod's race against a moderate Republican Senator, Sherrod won 52% in Meigs and 55% in Vinton.
6. Finally, in terms of other candidates, I think there are a lot of interesting possibilities. As I said, I'm not as down on Hillary being the pick as many are, I just think there are more downsides than upsides. I thought Stoller made a great case for Wes Clark, but he doesn't pack much of an electoral college punch, and some of the top people in his campaign tell me he was a really arrogant campaigner and never listened to anyone else's advice. I would love a woman, but this slap at Hillary argument is one I've heard now from a very diverse set of people, so it has me spooked. Many of the other candidates being talked about seem like stiffs.
So that's my argument. Glad to join the game. And, Barack, if you're reading along, feel free to call and I'll give you even more good advice... |
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