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Now that, as expected, Obama got a little bit of a bump from the primary fight being over and the Hillary endorsement, he seems to have established a small lead in the 2- to 6-point range, depending on the poll. While I am pleased that Obama has the lead, I have to admit that this gives me a new worry, which is that the campaign will get too cautious; Democratic Presidential campaigns have a history when they get a lead of starting to get cautious. It happened to the Kerry campaign when they got a small lead in the spring of 2004; it happened to the Gore campaign when they opened up a lead after the 2000 convention; it happened to the Clinton campaign/White House in 1996 when they opened up a big early lead on Dole, which had less disastrous consequences for Clinton himself, but certainly hurt the Democratic drive to retake the House; it happened to Dukakis is 1988; going way back, it even happened to Carter in 1976 as an early lead of more than 20 points shrunk to a 2-point margin in the final tally.
As I have written in the past, caution seems to be endemic to the last couple of generations of Democratic politicians, and it is natural for a campaign with a lead to want to be careful about making mistakes that blow that lead. I would argue, though, that the biggest mistake we could make this year is one of caution. Here's my thinking:
1. What got Obama this far is that he was the change candidate. If he gets too cautious in his policy and his campaign strategy that makes him look like a typical politician. The more Obama looks like a typical politician, the more a comfortable old brand name like McCain looks appealing: experienced, independent, a maverick who will challenge both parties, a war hero who's been serving his country since before Obama was born. In a conventional game with two candidates who seem like conventional politicians, that McCain brand starts to sound pretty good.
2. The electoral college math also trends toward McCain in a conventional game. Even with a narrow lead in the national popular vote, Kerry states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire are big challenges to win, and none of the Bush states that seem most likely (except maybe Iowa)-Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada-are easy at all. If Pawlenty is on the ticket, that makes Minnesota tough. It is only when Obama is making major gains in the overall vote, or when he is challenging the traditional voting patterns, that this race goes from being a tough-to-win nail-biter to a solid victory. It is hard to make those kinds of gains, or challenge those traditional voting patterns, without having a bold, risk-taking candidacy.
3. The change Obama is promising is not going to come with squeaking out a narrow Presidential win and only picking up a couple more seats in the Senate and House. If in this year of overwhelming Democratic Party brand advantage, we only squeak by with a narrow win, it's not going to give the big change agenda Obama is promising much momentum. And with the mood of the public, and the big problems there at our doorstep, if Obama doesn't deliver on his big change promises, there will be massive hell to pay for the Democrats in 2010 and 2012.
So what do I mean by being bold instead of cautious? I am talking about a campaign mindset that rejects the conventional wisdom both in terms of policy and tactics. Obama should push McCain hard on the policy debate, propose big policy changes on multiple fronts, push the ideological advantage we now have aggressively, and force McCain to react to their agenda. And on tactics, think big and gutsy as well. Spend real time and resources in states like North Dakota, Montana, Mississippi, and North Carolina. Call for nationwide days of action by supporters on key issues. Hold web-connected rallies and events all over the country on the same day. Genuinely deal with McCain on a negotiated series of unusually formatted debates and town halls. Give speeches in front of hostile audiences. Run ads that have edge to them, that don't look like every other political ad.
Let's make the campaign-the issues Obama presses forward, the events and tactics and speeches Obama does-be as exciting and different as the country wants the new President to be. We can win this election by a landslide if we don't get cautious and start playing prevent defense.
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