Presidential Forecast: Obama Extends Lead

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 13:00

Today, new polls (see here and here) from Alaska, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Virginia have a net result of Obama building further on his lead from yesterday. Here are the category changes:

• Florida moves from "Lean McCain" to "Toss-up"
  
• Maine-02 moves from "Lean Obama" to "Solid Obama"
  
• Minnesota moves from "Solid Obama" to "Lean Obama"

A day ago, Obama achieved a statistically significant advantage in 270+ electoral votes for the first time, and today that  lead looks very, very solid. In fact, Obama has a lead of 7.0% or more in states worth a combined 268 electoral votes, meaning that he would only have to win one of the following ten states in order to take the White House: Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Virginia. In every case, the current polling margin of these ten states is 4.5% or less, and Obama leads in the most recent poll from six of them. And he would only need one to win.

Some people like to say that when you are winning, you should work like you are ten points down. I disagree. Personally, I see no need to engage in delusion in order to find a reason to work hard for a candidate I am supporting. Further, I am not even sure why someone would work harder for a candidate who is getting crushed than for a candidate who is either tied or ahead. If anything, if a candidate I was supporting was getting crushed, I might simply give up and move on to a different, more competitive campaign. Besides, given that no lead is safe, and given that Democrats have not won a majority of the popular vote since 1976, working to build an even bigger lead is what really excites me. Even though things are looking very good right now, Obama resource advantage, and McCain general weakness on the stump, means that Obama could build the lead even further. I find that much more exciting than trying to convince myself that Obama is actually losing right now.

State by state details in the extended entry.

Update: New polls in Florida and New Hampshire from ARG push four more electoral votes into Obama's column. Obama now leads by 7.0% or more in states worth 272 electoral votes. That is very solid, and the overall campaign now clearly leans toward Obama.

Update 2: New Rasmussen polls for Ohio and Florida added. Little changes overall.  

Lean Obama: 111 Electoral Votes

State	EV's	Obama %	McCain %	Margin	# Polls
Colorado	9	48.5%	41.5%	+7.0%	2
Delaware	3	50.0%	41.0%	+9.0%	1
Iowa	7	46.0%	38.0%	+8.0%	2
Minnesota	10	49.5%	42.5%	+7.0%	2
New Jersey	15	46.5%	39.0%	+7.5%	2
New Hampshire	4	49.5%	41.0%	+8.5%	3
New Mexico	5	47.0%	42.5%	+4.5%	2
Oregon	7	47.5%	38.5%	+9.0%	2
Ohio	20	47.0%	41.7%	+5.3%	3
Pennsylvania	21	48.5%	41.5%	+7.0%	2
Wisconsin	10	49.0%	41.0%	+8.0%	3

Toss-up: 71 Electoral Votes

State	EV's	Obama %	McCain %	Margin	# Polls
Florida	27	45.0%	44.7%	+0.3%	3
Michigan	17	40.7%	42.3%	-1.6%	3
Missouri	11	44.3%	44.3%	Even	3
North Dakota	3	42.0%	43.0%	-1.0%	2
Virginia	13	46.0%	44.5%	+1.5%	2

Lean McCain: 52 Electoral Votes

State	EV's	Obama %	McCain %	Margin	# Polls
Alaska	3	41.5%	47.0%	-5.5%	2
Indiana	11	43.0%	47.0%	-4.0%	2
Kansas	6	39.3%	48.0%	-8.7%	2
Montana	3	41.0%	47.5%	-6.5%	2
Nebraska-02**	1	--	--	-5.0%	0
Nevada	5	41.0%	45.0%	-4.0%	2
North Carolina	15	41.8%	46.0%	-4.2%	4
South Carolina	8	42.0%	48.0%	-6.0%	2

Solid McCain: 139 Electoral Votes

State	EV's	Obama %	McCain %	Margin	# Polls
Alabama	9	33.0%	58.0%	-25.0%	3
Arizona	10	38.5%	48.5%	-10.0%	2
Arkansas	6	36.0%	52.5%	-16.5%	2
Georgia	15	38.0%	48.0%	-10.0%	2
Idaho	4	39.0%	52.0%	-13.0%	1
Kentucky	8	36.5%	55.0%	-18.5%	2
Louisiana	9	38.0%	50.5%	-12.5%	2
Mississippi	6	41.5%	52.0%	-10.5%	2
Nebraska-AL**	2	36.0%	52.0%	-16.0%	3
Nebraska-01**	1	--	--	-10.0%	0
Nebraska-03**	1	--	--	-34.0%	2
Oklahoma	7	29.5%	57.0%	-27.5%	2
South Dakota	3	36.0%	49.5%	-13.5%	2
Tennessee	11	33.5%	55.5%	-22.0%	2
Texas	34	37.5%	52.0%	-14.5%	2
Utah	5	33.0%	56.0%	-23.0%	2
West Virginia	5	36.0%	49.0%	-13.0%	2
Wyoming	3	37.5%	53.5%	-16.0%	2

* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.

** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.

Methodology
I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.

1. For each state, take all polls conducted for the state over the previous thirty days, and average them.
   
2. If one polling firm has more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days, take only the most recent poll.
   
3. Every state has at least two polls. If two polls were not conducted in a state over the last thirty days, use the two most recent polls from any polling firm.
   
4. If only one poll has been conducted in a state, then only use that poll.
   
5. No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.

As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease. Also, when the amount of data increases, I will be able to start projecting the swing, "toss-up" states. Right now, however, there just isn't enough data to push those states into one camp or the other.