| Youth turnout doubled from 2004 - 2008 nationwide and Washington State shattered their caucus attendance records with a turnout of 244,458 attendees, up from 100,000 in 2004!
It's quite possible that Aristotle's voter data file, which was used by SUSA in this survey, does not reflect these new voter turnouts yet, nor does it reflect Burner's 132% cash on hand advantage over Reichert. ($921,615 for Burner vs. 698,035 for Reichert). Both are dead even in cash raised to date ($1,396,631 for Burner to $1,370,991 for Reichert).
What does concern me about this poll and Burner's strength in the district overall are her ties to the district. There's no doubt that Darcy Burner is a well qualified candidate and would be an excellent congresswoman. But she's only been in the district for 10 years and is running against an incumbent who's lived his whole life in Washington State and has worked for the King County Sheriff's department since 1972.
This slightly mirrors the situation with the democratic candidate in MN-03. There you have an outstanding campaigner who moved into the district last fall when the popular sixteen year incumbent announced his retirement and beat two sitting elected officials in the DFL endorsing contest. But it raises the question - can a single 30 year old renter connect with a general electorate that owns homes, have children and work full-time along a congested corridor for some of America's best known Fortune 500s?
NJ-07 is a different story. They are currently represented by a retiring congressman who was in search of a home in 2000. Mike Ferguson was able to parlay Bush's victory into a solid win over a divided democratic party in his congressional race. Ferguson also had the backing of an influential conservative religious movement and a national conservative catholic political movement. The interesting dynamic in NJ-07 this year however, is two home grown candidates who have at times been at odds with their respective parties facing off against each other.
And that's the rub, to what extent is all politics local? To what extent does community trump ideology, even in a year when there is a clear failure of the governing party's ideology? And what does this mean for progressive and democratic candidates? Can Burner's cash, ideas, and business experience trump a local good old boy in a race for congress?
I think the plus for congressional democrats this year is that we've been training organizers as part of the 50 state strategy for the last 3 years. We're coming off a series of upset special election victories in very improbable locations and are flush with cash. Gas prices are at record highs and the credit freeze is extending into student loans. If ever there was a time for ideas and change to trump local ties in a congressional or local race, now is it.
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