Here is a map that projects Obama's current state targeting strategy. States where organizing fellows are being sent, and where his new ad campaign is running, are shown in black. States receiving either organizing fellows or the ad campaign, but not both, are shown in gray. States receiving neither are allocated according to their 2004 results:
Obama Targeting Strategy
Black, "Heavy Targets": 179 electoral votes
Gray, "Moderate Targets": 53 electoral votes
Blue, "Low Targets": 167 electoral votes
Red, "Low Targets": 139 electoral votes
The black, gray and blue total 399 electoral votes, leaving only 139 McCain "safe" states. However, there are actually several more "red" states, worth a combined 57 electoral votes, where a recent poll shows a single digit campaign: Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, all of Nebraska except the 3rd congressional, South Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Even the occasional Texas poll has shown a single-digit campaign. As such, it would probably be a good idea to run national cable ads to supplement these targeted state buys. If the national polls move another three or four points in Obama's direction, more resources can then be directed to these third-tier states.
Still, given that the Obama campaign is putting staff in all fifty-states, the fifty-state nature of the nomination campaign, the DNC's fifty-state strategy is well underway, and that the Obama campaign is engaged in a fifty-state voter registration drive, basically nowhere is going truly uncontested. Unlike many previous campaigns, Democrats now have a solid national foundation that will serve us well into the future. The enormous number of states within ten points or less, not to mention our numerous House and Senate pickup opportunities, is a testament to its success.
|
STATE BLOGS
