Chris Cillizza's Friday House Line: MN-03 drops from 12 to 15, NJ-07 moves up from 9 to 7 and WA-08 moves up to #17 from 19 even after a SurveyUSA poll this week showing Dave Reichert leading among likely voters 51% - 45% in WA-08.
Cilliza's counting on a strong Obama showing in WA-08 (a D+2 district) to propel Burner to victory. I still wonder if community ties trump ideology and resume - even in a potential realignment year. However, the numbers and a strong Obama ground game may work in Burner's favor in this district.
MN-03, an R+1 district drops from 12 to 15 and Republican Erik Paulsen gets a big boost from Stu Rothenberg in Roll Call. Writes Cilliza:
15. Minnesota's 3rd (Open seat, R): There's no tougher grader of candidates for Congress than Stu Rothenberg. So when Stu praises a candidate, we listen. Of Republican Erik Paulsen, Stu wrote: "I wouldn't say my interview with Erik Paulsen went well. I'd say it was spectacular." (Stu's column at Roll Call is subscriber-only.) WOW. Paulsen, a sitting state senator, has drawn similar reviews from Republican strategists who believe he is one of the most able candidates they have fielded this cycle. (The Fix has not yet met him -- hint, hint.) Democrats nominated Ashwin Madia, an Iraq vet and first-time candidate. (Previous ranking: 12)
This race started out as a #3 race on the Friday House Line when Congressman Jim Ramstad announced his retirement last fall. Recently, noted Republican operative and opposition researcher Michael Brodkorb joined the Paulsen team.
MN-03 will be an interesting race. Like NJ-07, the district is dominated by big city media - in this case Minneapolis instead of NYC - but paid media here can still be pretty pricey. Radio (long drive times from certain parts of the district) and targeted cable TV ads can be effective here. However, Madia is counting on a superb field effort to sweep him to a win in a district that has been trending blue since 2004. Despite these trends the republicans still hold a significant advantage in this district.
What to watch for: Former Republican Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer (a proxy for very right wing republicanism) and Governor Tim Pawlenty (on the short list for a McCain Vice Presidency) both outperformed in MN-03 relative to their statewide totals.
2006 Republican Candidate Performance: MN-03 vs. Statewide:
Candidate MN-03 MN Statewide Seat
Mark Kennedy 43.2% 39.5% US Senate
Mary Kiffmeyer 53% 47.6% SecState
Tim Pawlenty 54.1% 47.2% Governor
NJ-07, an R+1 district, is the most interesting of the three races I'm covering in this series.
NYC and some Philly media predominates in this district and makes it pricey to run a paid media campaign. Radio is also NYC driven and targets only a fraction of likely NJ-07 voters despite long drive times in the western part of the district.
Democrats, campaign professionals, and journalists like Chris Cilliza believe the DCCC's overwhelming cash advantage this cycle will boost Stender over the top. Stender came within 3,000 votes of upsetting incumbent Mike Ferguson in 2006 and is a quality candidate with extensive experience at the local, county and state levels. She is the most progressive of the candidates profiled here and recently won Planned Parenthood of Central New Jersey's Public Policy Leadership award.
Like her republican opponent, she has often butted heads with her party and is not your typical NJ machine democrat. She's not afraid to call herself a progressive and would be a welcome addition to a House Caucus in need of strong progressive women representatives.
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