(Dark Blue (169): Obama +10.0% or more
Lean Blue (107): Obama +3.6%-+9.9%
White / Toss-up (94): Obama +3.5% to McCain +3.5%
Lean Red (44): McCain +3.6%-+9.9%
Dark Red (124): McCain +10.0% or more)
New polls today from Indiana, Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania are all good news for Obama. (Is there another kind of news for Obama lately?) While none of them cause categories to shift in Obama's direction, the Indiana confirms a close campaign in Hosier state, the Michigan poll moves Obama into a slight lead there, and the New Mexico poll confirms Obama's lead. So, while no states move categories, the existing, very positive Obama map is confirmed.
All of the above states, even the surprising ones like Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska-02, North Carolina, North Dakota and South Carolina really are competitive this year. That is a grand total of 61 supposedly deep red electoral that McCain cannot count as part of his base. McCain's base states now only add up to 124 electoral votes, far less than Bush was ever able to count on. A blowout can really happen. Exciting stuff!
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
For each state, take all polls conducted for the state over the previous thirty days, and average them.
If one polling firm has more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days, take only the most recent poll.
Every state has at least two polls. If two polls were not conducted in a state over the last thirty days, use the two most recent polls from any polling firm.
If only one poll has been conducted in a state, then only use that poll.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease. Also, when the amount of data increases, I will be able to start projecting the swing, "toss-up" states. Right now, however, there just isn't enough data to push those states into one camp or the other.
STATE BLOGS
