More on the 60 Vote Threshold Myth

by: Matt Stoller

Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 12:47


Here's Elizabeth Edwards, in an email pitch for the DSCC.

Senate Democrats have tried to fix these glaring injustices, but Republicans have responded by filibustering over seventy bills in a single year - a record of obstruction unmatched in American history.

And Josh Orton and Matthew Yglesias disagree.  They argue that final vote tallies are misleading, and that once you whip to 60 votes many more Senators break for a bill so they can add modifications.  That's somewhat true.

Still, if Tom Coburn can hold up 100 bills on his own, or if Russ Feingold can spark a debate about the President by offering a censure resolution, perhaps we might consider that the 60 vote threshold is only one and a very narrow way of thinking about the Senate.  It also happens to be a persuasive way to convince liberals to back conservative candidates like Kay Hagan, who has not come for net neutrality or FISA, and Ronnie Musgrove, who is featured on MyDD's Road to 60.

Matt Stoller :: More on the 60 Vote Threshold Myth

Musgrove is a real pickup opportunity, but he also has a history of damaging progressives.  As a quick example, he strongly supported extremist Roy Moore's quest to post the ten commandments in the state capitol.  Sometimes politicians have to make compromises like that, of course, but Musgrove went further, and blasted the ACLU and invoked "our Christian heritage."

Is this really someone we are confident will vote with the progressive position, even on procedural matters?  Probably on SCHIP, yes, on matters like the gang of 14 and constitutional crisis issues, probably no.  Which matters more?  In other words, it's certainly more powerful to have a liberal Tom Coburn who knows he has support from liberals than a Ronnie Musgrove type.  And that's what we're talking about, a trade-off of resources.  If you live in Mississippi, vote Musgrove, and I admire the progressive blogs doing media pushback in state.  Where resources are fungible, though, move them to progressives, as this isn't really going to hurt Musgrove.  In other words, I do hope Musgrove gets elected, but there are plenty of business PACs and insiders who will pay for it.

Why should liberals put our money there?  We have so few resources, it's just not worth it to give a bit of marginal support to conservative Democrats who can easily get resources from business interests.  We need icons who understand that their job is to act as committed progressives and threaten to throw a wrench into the process if, say, transportation funding doesn't include enough for mass transit.  

That's the only real route to power right now for liberals.  There's no question we're going to get more Democrats in 2009, we should be focusing on making sure the ones we do get are better, and know that there are resources going to them because they are better.  Otherwise, why should you run as a progressive?  If a politician can get the money from progressives AND business PACs by being a conservative Democrat, that's what politicians will choose.

And that's why Bush Dogs are in charge right now, and will be in charge in 2009-2011.  On OpenLeft, we know the score, so we won't be fooled by the parades of joy when Democrats fully take over, and we won't be disillusioned by the inevitable disappointments.  It's our job to grow outward, and begin to teach others that progressives need to support progressives, and that Bourbon Democrats can go screw up the country without our help.


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Baby Steps (0.00 / 0)
I would rather have a progressive, but better a Bush Dog than a Republican.  Now then we need to make Grassroots challenges... and have to be fully understanding that the Leadership WILL NOT go after the incumbent.  

I don't see mention of Sanders (0.00 / 0)
Is he being too cautious? It seems I remember hearing a lot more of Wellstone when he was there. Was he more of a progressive Coburn?

Jeff Wegerson

Bernie is really focused on (4.00 / 2)
working class economic issues right now like LIHEAP, card check, and getting fairness in the tax code (i.e. the rich pay their fair share). So he hasn't focussed on issues like FISA so much. He is after all, a socialist, so it makes sense that he's taken up those issues right now and left Feingold to do the constitutional issues. But in general Bernie has been very active and very good in the senate. You probably don't hear as much about him as Wellstone because Wellstone was kind of seen as the last of the Mohicans there for a while back in the mid 90s. But although hard-core progressives are still in a distinct minority in the senate, we have made progress in getting more elected than was there back in the dark ages (i.e. Brown, Sanders, Whitehouse, Feingold, Lautenberg, Menendez).

[ Parent ]
So then, looking down the road (4.00 / 1)
What's the course for building up the infrastructure that will provide reliable analysis in 435 House races and 33 Senate races two years from now? It has to be there during the candidate recruitment and primary period if we're gonna ever get this bull by the horns.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.

Pass. vs. stop (0.00 / 0)
It's clear from the senate rules that one person, or at least a small group of committed people, can stop legislation cold.

However, I'm still waiting for the case to be made that 60 votes won't be needed to move forward, as opposed to just stop the bleeding.  I think back to 1993-1994, when nearly every good piece of Democratic legislation was filibustered to death in the Senate.

OK, one caveat:  51 senators determined to kick ass, and eliminate the filibuster from the rules, or deny any who do filibuster a single appropriation to their state might be able to get stuff through.  But it seems like we need either 60 decent people or 51 ass-kickers, and the former seems more likely.


??? (0.00 / 0)
I think back to 1993-1994, when nearly every good piece of Democratic legislation was filibustered to death in the Senate.

Just the health care fiasco, really.  NAFTA passed.


[ Parent ]
Clinton did choose to go forward with NAFTA (0.00 / 0)
but it was inherited from Bush I.  A majority of Democrats in Congress voted against it.  Gephardt hated it.

[ Parent ]
not really (4.00 / 2)
Gephardt didn't hate NAFTA, he did vote against it.  But, he did not whip against it, and he greased passage for fast track authority for Bush I.

[ Parent ]
Better mileage for cars was filibustered. (0.00 / 0)
A bill to bring the average fuel economy didn't get 60 votes.  Instead we got SUVs, slid backward, and the gas price hike is nailing people nearly twice as hard as it would have.

[ Parent ]
Targeting is our watchword (4.00 / 3)
Few, probably none, of us have the money to max out on 10 Senate races and 30 House races, or the time to work for more than a small number of candidates.  So the issue is prioritizing, for each and every one of us.  Certainly, in the general, we should vote for the Dems we can vote for.  That's a no-brainer.  So in that sense, we should "support" all Dems.  In addition, there is merit in contributing and working on our own local races to build up influence, even if they are more conservative.

But Matt's post goes beyond that, to the allocation of scarce time and money, given what other people will be doing.  And here he is right.  In considering where to allocate scarce resources outside your own local area, there is real value in trying to build up strong progressives who will carry the progressive banner and who need money.  In the Senate, to me this means above all Jeff Merkley in OR, Tom Allen in ME (added benefit is the scare it might put into Olympia Snowe, who is up next time).  Then probably Mark Begich in AK, and Rick Noriega in TX, maybe Al Franken MN.  You have your preferences.  Fine, as long as we're doing each something.

I'll cheer Bruce Lunsford on against Mitch McConnell all the way to Nov 5, and I'll root for the Udalls, Warner and Jean Shaheen, Ronnie Musgrove, and Kay Hagen.  But scarce resources go to those mentioned above.   (and my sentimental favorite Andrew Rice in OK.)

To donate use our Better Dems page, Mike Lux's page or Act Blue's directory.

But do it soon.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.


Actually (0.00 / 0)
Olympia Snowe isn't up until 2012.

[ Parent ]
Totally agree (4.00 / 1)
I'm in NC, so I'll be working for Kay Hagan because she'd be infinitely better than Dole. But if you've got time or money to spare, use it to get Jeff Merkley or Tom Allen elected in OR and ME. They will be powerful allies if elected.

Merkley will be a powerful ally for progressives (4.00 / 1)
I've seen what he has been able to get done in the Oregon House, and it's precisely the reason I volunteered so many hours to his campaign before I joined the staff. With a razor thin majority he pushed through domestic partnerships, a ton of enviro bills, payday lending regulation, ethics reform, anti-discrimination legislation and many...many more. I am very confident that we progressives will be able to depend on him when issues like protecting our civil liberties, ending the war, passing UHC etc. hit the floor.  

Netroots Director for Oregon Senate Candidate Jeff Merkley

[ Parent ]
Yep (0.00 / 0)
And he won't ever have to run scared in his state and pretend he's a conservative when running for reelection. Good luck Sarah.

[ Parent ]
The key line (Incentives) (4.00 / 1)
I'm generally with what you've said, but I want to highlight one line that I didn't really think about before I read this post which strikes me as just clearly correct:

Otherwise, why should you run as a progressive?  If a politician can get the money from progressives AND business PACs by being a conservative Democrat, that's what politicians will choose.

It's not that this is always going to be the result of a conscious cynical calculation by the politician, but incentives can lurk beneath the surface.  A politician may find herself adrift after seeing how well kowtowing to business and the right works, and how little it profits her to stick to progressive principles.  Or, in the case of some of these red state Road to 60 Democrats, they may already be of a mind that runs conservative, and the way our cash goes will serve as a sort of selective pressure: if it goes to conservatives, more conservatives will be elected, if it goes to progressives, more progressives will be elected.  (And we can always hope, if we have not already flushed their coffers, that by targeted and reactive giving as rewards for progressive behavior, that the unconscious drift might work the other way.)

Either way, it's not a good long-to-middle-term strategy to be focusing on, or even giving equal weight to, conservative Democrats, especially because of the way it builds bad incentive structures.  Think of targeting progressives as a little congressional cap-and-trade.


Disincentives work better (4.00 / 2)
Look at the activist right.  Any Republican that supports gun control is going to find it very hard to hold his seat.

First they go negative in a blistering primary.  Then they continue negativity up to November.  Even if the republican squeaks it out in November they know never to try that again.

The key thing is that the GOP base isn't burdened with this silly concept of "more and better."  They go with: "my way or the highway."

Willingness to lose a seat to GOP is the only thing that will strengthen our clout.  Because we may be willing to lose a seat, but the guy in the seat isn't.


[ Parent ]
The best way to end this debate (0.00 / 0)
is to get 60 Dem senators this November and see what happens.

John McCain won't insure children

yes (0.00 / 0)
That is true.  But ending the debate is not particularly important, what's important is to create progressive change.  

[ Parent ]
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