The conventional wisdom is that, as a result of a recent statement on guns, a recent flip-flop on FISA, and a conservative toned television advertising campaign, Obama is "moving to the center" now that the primary campaign is over. According to Rasmussen, that CW is mirrored by the shifting perceptions of the general public, who view Obama as less liberal than they did one month ago:
During the Primary campaign season, Obama was viewed as politically liberal by an ever-increasing number of voters that grew to 67% by early June. However, since clinching the nomination, he has reversed that trend and is now seen as liberal by only 56%.
Twenty-two percent (22%) characterize the Democrat as Very Liberal, down from 36% early last month.
McCain similarly has been seen as politically conservative by more and more voters, also hitting 67% a month ago, but he is still viewed that way by 66%. While19% saw him as Very Conservative in early June, that figure now has risen to 28%.
So, now that Obama is perceived as moving to the center, while McCain is still perceived as conservative, Obama's poll numbers should improve, right? Wrong. According to the daily tracking poll from the same polling firm, Rasmussen, the campaign has not changed at all as a result of Obama being perceived as less liberal:
- Obama has been at 49% every single day since June 22nd
- Obama has been at 48%, 49% or 50% every single day since June 8th
- Obama has led by between 4-6% every day since June 23rd, and in all but three days since June 11th. In the other three days, he twice led by 3%, and once led by 7%.
Poll movement of this small degree is not really movement at all, but rather "statistical noise." So, while there has been substantial movement in how liberal Obama is perceived as being, and even though McCain is viewed just as conservative as ever, there has been no movement whatsoever in the national matchup. This is very strong proof, even scientific, that Obama's move to the center has not won him any votes, and that the perceived change in the ideological gap between Obama and McCain did not impact their relative vote share.
Now, whether Obama's centrist drift will win him the adulation of the national media and $2,300 donors is another question. There will be more data on that soon, but I think it is pretty safe to say that, generally speaking, The Village and large doors love this sort of thing.
Update: There is a diary up at Daily Kos contradicting mine by claiming that Obama's move to the center worked because it improved Obama's favorable ratings. I disagree, because higher favorables do not necessarily lead to better voter preference numbers. The evidence backs me up, as e can see from the final poll that measured both Obama and Clinton against McCain, along with favorables for both candidates:
CBS News Poll. May 30-June 3, 2008. N=930 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.
Obama 48%--42% McCain
Clinton 51%--41% McCain
Clinton favorables: Favorable 41%, Not Favorable 39%, Undecided 18%
Obama favorables: Favorable 41%, Not Favorable 31%, Undecided 22%
Despite Clinton's 8% lower net favorables, she performed 4% better against McCain in the voter preference trial heat. It isn't about favorables--it is about voter preference. VP is the only relevant data to demonstrate whether a strategy worked or not.
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