If you thought that Chris's July 7th Map of the race looked good:
Electoral College: Obama 293, McCain 194, Toss-up 51
National popular vote: Obama 48.3%-43.8% McCain
(Dark Blue (207): Obama +9.0% or more
Lean Blue (86): Obama +3.0%-+8.9%
White / Toss-up (51): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (104): McCain +3.0%-+8.9%
Dark Red (90): McCain +9.0% or more)
with "solid" Obama better than 2-1 over "solid" McCain (207-90), then....
How about factoring in John Edwards as VP, with his worst showings against McCain from the SUSA polls (using his average worst in states not polled):
Electoral College: Obama 309, McCain 145, Toss-up 84
National popular vote: Obama 49.9%-42.2% McCain
That's Obama better than 3-1 in "solid" category: 245-79!
Michigan solid, Montana leaning, both Carolinas, Indiana, Missouri and Alaska tossups...
Better yet, how about factoring in John Edwards as VP, with his average showings against McCain (using the average of his average in states not polled):
Electoral College: Obama 344, McCain 90, Toss-up 104
National popular vote: Obama 51.1%-40.0% McCain
Now it's better than 5-1 among "solid" states: 286-52! That's five to one!
Also with Florida, Virginia, Montana, North Dakota and Nevada leaning, and Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Missouri, Indiana and Alaska as tossups.
More stuff on the flip...