There has been a decent amount of discussion about "the new electoral map" that the 2008 election will create. Certainly, removing the polarizing George W. Bush from the ticket, adding an African-American nominee into the mix, and combining it all with a fifty-state strategy four years in the making, and there are bound to be changes in the partisanship of many states. In an attempt to determine just where partisanship is shifting, last night I spent the last three hours creating this map:
State by state partisan voting shift, 2004 election to July 2008
Solidly More Democratic (8.0% or more better than expected): 90 electoral votes
Somewhat more Democratic (3.0%-7.9% better than expected): 90 electoral votes
No significant change (Within 2.9% of expected): 230 electoral votes
Somewhat more Republican (3.0%-7.9% worse than expected): 95 electoral votes
Solidly more Republican (8.0% or more worse than expected): 33 electoral votes
In the extended entry, I provide an explanation for this map.
This map takes the "expected" margin in each state, and subtracts it from the current polling margin in each state. The "expected" result is determined by taking the final margin of each state in the 2004 election, and shifting it 7.06% in favor of Democrats (Obama is currently ahead by 4.6% nationally, while Kerry lost by 2.46%. Thus, a shift of 7.06% is "expected" in each state.) The current polling margin in each state is taken from Pollster.com or, in cases where Pollster.com does not provide a regression line, from the averages in my most recent presidential forecast. The blue states are where Obama is performing either somewhat or solidly better than expected, and the red states are where Obama is performing either somewhat or solidly worse than expected.
It is an interesting map, and somewhat closely parallels the results of the nomination campaign. Obama is very strong, for a Democrat, in the southeast outside of Florida. He is also very strong, for a Democrat, west of the Mississippi outside the Pacific Coast. He is relatively weak, for a Democrat, in the Mississippi Delta, Florida, and the northeast. To put it in Robert David Sullivan's ten political region terminology, Obama is relatively strong for a Democrat in Sagebrush, the Farm Belt, El Norte, and the Southern Lowlands, but relatively weak for a Democrat in Southern Comfort, Appalachia, the Northeast Corridor, and the Upper Coasts.
Anyway, I hope you found this map interesting and valuable.
STATE BLOGS
