( - promoted by tremayne)
While we debate the Obama campaign’s latest statements and general campaign strategy sometimes we forget what his historic candidacy means to many Americans. But the picture is getting clearer as this post will summarize. Every presidential campaign targets new voters. In 2004 the Kerry campaign went after young voters and the Bush campaign went after unregistered church goers and evangelicals. But the successes those campaigns had will be swamped by what happens this year and the reason is this: in addition to having something huge to vote against (continuation of disastrous Bush policies), Obama’s candidacy has given people something to vote for. The evidence gathered below comes from the following states: Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas and Virginia. The impact in these states and others should have effects on down-ticket races even when the state’s electoral votes are not in doubt. Details follow.
|
| Early Primary States: Iowa and New Hampshire These states are good test cases because each got a heavy dose of Obama and McCain (and of the Democratic and Republican brands in general). Here are the results: IOWA Democrats: 60,000 more voters Republicans: 7,600 morevoters Do you think this played a part in yesterday’s new poll out of Iowa showing Obama up 10?
NEW HAMPSHIRE Democrats: 36,000 more voters Republicans: 2,000 more voters Independents: 29,000 fewer than 2004 Democrats up, Independents down, I wonder what happened?
Other Traditional Battleground States The Obama campaign is making strong efforts in states where new voters could make the difference in November or protect leads he already holds and win additional down-ticket races. FLORIDA Democrats: 106,508 more voters Republicans: 16,686 more voters Here’s one take from Palm Beach County: Wahid Mahmood, local Democratic chairman, said the party has opened two new offices in the county over the last year and more Democrats are volunteering to knock on doors and pass out registration forms. They are working hard to energize their Young Democrat clubs at local colleges and are visiting religious organizations to spread the word about voting, he said. It's much more than the party did in 2004, when its standard-bearer, John Kerry, won 60 percent of the vote in Palm Beach County but lost the state to George W. Bush, Mahmood said. "We realized plenty of people had not been registered voters. I think in 2004 our party was nowhere near where it is today," he said. "We elevated ourselves as a party from 2004 to 2008." PENNSYLVANIA There’s this: Democrats have added more voters than Republicans in 62 of the 67 counties. In the 5 districts in which the GOP gained more, the largest difference was 23 voters — versus a gain of more than 3,000 in some counties of Democrats. Overall, Republicans lost 1,500 registered voters in the past 2 months, allowing Democrats to increase their edge by 40,000 voters! In a state that John Kerry only won by 150,000 votes, this is a very significant addition — especially when you add it to the Democrats’ previous gains — and could be enough to make the state much less competitive than it was four years ago. And this: In Montgomery County, Democratic Commissioner Joseph M. Hoeffel III reacted with some glee…"It should humble some of the braggarts of the Republican Party," he said. MICHIGAN The Obama campaign will double the Kerry effort in the state. To date, the campaign has hired more than 90 paid staffers and plans to hire another 80 by the national convention. There will be five full-time "constituency voter coordinators" who work with coalitions and affinity groups, like women, gays and veterans. All in all, the campaign plans to pay more than 200 people in Michigan. That's about twice as many staffers as the Kerry-Edwards effort did in 2004. The campaign has identified 2,000 precincts and plans to staff them with captains who will oversee neighborhood volunteer teams working on the quattrain of tasks: voter registration, voter ID, persuasion, and GOTV. They're going to open 40 offices statewide, most of them co-located with local parties or campaigns. Minority Turnout to Surge in 2008 There are many indicators that point to this, some resulting from efforts of the Obama campaign and some separate from it. First this from the WSJ: Sen. Obama reckons that a surge in black voters will put in play long-solid Republican regions across the country, lifting Democratic candidates for all offices, from the White House to Congress to state legislatures. “I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I’m the nominee, goes up 30% around the country, minimum,” Mr. Obama said at a campaign event this past winter….For Sen. Obama, the registration initiative is at the fore, especially since the main reason for low black turnout is low registration. The U.S. Census Bureau says that while registered black voters turn out at a rate generally even with white counterparts, qualified African-Americans register at a lower rate nationally — 68% to 75% for whites. The gap is particularly stark in the battleground state of Florida, where only 53% of eligible blacks were registered in 2004, compared with 71% of whites. In Virginia, it was 58% to 72%. The importance of this strategy has conservatives worried. From the Weekly Standard: The strategy makes sense and is unsurprising given the Illinois senator’s performance among black voters in the primaries. But his campaign’s resources and systematic use of technology to accomplish this goal should make Republican strategists take particular note. Latino voters are also expected to play an increased role in 2008. Registration efforts are underway in North Carolina, Colorado, Georgia and Texas. The Southern Strategy Speaking of Texas and registration efforts, Howard Dean will kick off a voter registration drive in Crawford on Thursday and, after an appearance at Netroots Nation, continue to Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina and Georgia before making an August swing into the Midwest. Like the Obama campaign, Dean and the DNC are committed to registering new voters in all 50 states. GEORGIA More than 300,000 new voters have been registered since January. No breakout on Democrats versus Republicans but given the efforts of the Obama campaign and the enthusiasm seen during the Democratic primary it is likely the pattern is similar to the numbers reported above for Florida. Again, the Obama campaign’s efforts have been noticed by conservatives: If Obama carries Georgia, there will be much to pay back here. In a state with a decimated Democrat bench, a popular Democrat President could breathe some life into a confused race for governor in 2010…. a strong turnout for Senator Obama may shine some light on a Democrat or two down ballot. NORTH CAROLINA Again, positive trends: North Carolina's number of registered voters has also grown in 2008, although not as much as Georgia….Like Georgia, new registrations have favored Democratic, independent and African-American voters. African-American voters have gone from 20.1% to 20.7% of the N.C. electorate in 2008. By party, Democrats have gone from 44.8% to 45.3%.....Those gains have been at the expense of Republicans, who went from being 34.3% of N.C. voters in January to 33.3% by the end of June. ALABAMA Another unlikely state for Democratic success is showing some good signs, possibly as many as 94,000 new voters since January. VIRGINIA The Obama campaign is following the same strategy in Virginia, this time with an assist from former Governor Douglas Wilder (who is now the mayor of Richmond, raise your hand if you knew that and don’t live there). The goal is 151,000 new voters by October 6. Non-swing states Finally, some states that aren’t exactly battlegrounds are also seeing big gains that might swing down-ballot races. That’s the case in Hawaii, Illinois and California. Even in McCain’s home state of Arizona Democrats are making gains. Summary If the registration efforts continue to show the kinds of success for Democrats that is already apparent, it could be a blowout, not just for Obama but for Democrats at all levels. And guess what happens when Democrats win state legislatures? The redistricting that has favored Republicans nationwide for quite some time can start to be undone. The effects of the 2008 campaign could pay dividends for Democrats for the next 10 years or more. |
STATE BLOGS
