Regina Thomas Blown Out by John Barrow

by: Matt Stoller

Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 23:36


And state Senator Regina Thomas loses badly by a little over 50 points, 76.3% to 23.7%.  Thomas, like Fallon, just didn't believe in running a modern campaign with polling, mail, and paid media.  Thomas was well-known in Savannah, her district, but she was outspent by $800k to $20k or so, a factor of 40.  And Barrow was endorsed by Obama.

The key is to make sure that candidates run modern campaigns and use all tools at their disposal.  Neither Fallon nor Thomas did that.  They both had the attitude that the public was with them, because they were reactive to the activists backing them and did not reach out beyond that circle.  This is a fairly common myopic view from community activists or state politicians who launch into expensive Federal races.

Organizing and politics is very hard.  It is useful to understand how tough it is to communicate well with a primary universe, even in a strong year for change.

Matt Stoller :: Regina Thomas Blown Out by John Barrow

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I think the more important thing (0.00 / 0)
Is CREDIBLE challengers. Obviously we all want more liberal congresspeople but just BEING more liberal than the incumbent is not a qualification. If we want to win we need serious, impressive candidates to represent our ideas and as far as I can tell Regina Thomas is another Dennis Kucinich.  

Thanks, Matt. (4.00 / 2)
You saved me at least $50.  I was on the point of sending it to Ms Thomas when I saw a comment by you saying what you said above, that Ms Thomas was not doing serious fundraising and not running a modern campaign.  I wasn't sure what you meant by that, but I trust your judgment, and I know you have way more insider connections than I do, so I sent the money to Darcy Burner instead.

Here's the thing.  Many of us are serious about supporting progressive candidates, even or especially in the primaries, and not just in our home states.  But there is never enough money to go around.  I have no objection to contributing to a progressive campaign which is a significant underdog; almost all candidates who are not incumbents are underdogs.  If the progressive loses, then they lose. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.  But even for a political maven like me, it's really hard to get a good sense of whether the odds are so long as to make the money which could have gone to a closer race a waste.

I know that this must be something of a dilemma for you.  If you say that people should put their contributions into a campaign likelier to win, somebody is inevitably going to accuse you of undermining a progressive who had the courage to run against long odds, something none of us wants.

But the case of Fallon is instructive, for me.  I contributed to his campaign, in a small way (as always), not knowing that the odds against his winning were prohibitive.  That was money that could have gone to Darcy, or Al Franken, or one of the other progressive candidates whose odds of success are better.  If 40 or 50 other people did the same, the money might have helped to make a difference in a close race.

Don't get me wrong:  those candidates in +20 R districts need our support too, IF they are real progressives.  And I know it must hurt you inside to have to say that somebody who would be a vast improvement in office is not going to win due to the weakness of their campaign. But this time you said it.  You were right, and I thank you for it.

It's just absolutely imperative that the small campaign donors like me have realistic information to help them make their small contributions be as effective as possible.  Nobody wants candidates like Regina Thomas to be unable to raise money on the web because her campaign is inferior.  But that's better than diluting the efforts of those who are dedicated to increasing the progressive caucus in Congress and the Senate by failing to apprise them of the facts.

It's a shame Regina Thomas lost, but if she was going to lose regardless (and obviously she was) then its better that she lose without diverting scarce resources away from campaigns with a better chance.  So good work, Matt, and I mean that sincerely.  It's a really hard choice to have to make, but you made the right one.


yep (4.00 / 1)
It's just absolutely imperative that the small campaign donors like me have realistic information to help them make their small contributions be as effective as possible.

I definitely agree with you here. I did go ahead and contribute to Thomas even though I knew the likely outcome. One thing I'd like to know earlier if possible is ways we can actually help the candidate actually do the work to reach out before it gets too late in the game. I'm in Georgia and my local Democratic party kind of sucks in letting you know what you can do to help besides give them money.


[ Parent ]
Obama did the right thing. (0.00 / 0)
The more I think about this, the more I think Obama was smart. Barrow was going to win anyway, this way he owes Obama and would look silly trying to disown Obama in the general. Obama also made clear to the white community that he is not a race candidate.

Although I supported Thomas, the more I think about it, the more I think netroots is making a mistake endorsing a series of lost causes. From a politicians point of view we look weak. We look like a group who can be ignored with impunity.


a (0.00 / 0)
Obama also made clear to the white community that he is not a race candidate.

I'm curious how many times he's going to have to "prove" this. For me, I just hope he liked Barrow better as a candidate.


[ Parent ]
It's more than a little tough to pull off primary upsets (0.00 / 0)
and as you say, Matt, what works in a little neighborhood state senate district just does not scale up to a congressional district of 600,000.  Lots of folks who would  be great in the office just can't put together the uphill campaigns it takes to do the job.
I met with Thomas about three weeks out.  It wasn't hard to see what time it was.  We only had time to do a single radio spot, which I don't know if she used.  Be in touch with her this week.
Sometimes these candidates learn how to do this stuff, how to put together the combination of money, volunteers, issues, media, a registration drive, a canvass, an absentee and advance voting operation, and the rest that it takes to win.  Donna Edwards figured it out in only two tries.  Danny Davis took three tries (at the Congressional seat) a couple more at citywide and countywide office, and still had to wait for the incumbent to retire.  Some others just never learn.  Not on their own anyway.  We've got a truly awful rep in west Atlanta named David Scott, who is eminently beatable, but who just can't attract an opponent with the necessary gifts and guts... but don't get me started.
I hope that a few, or more than a few good folks sit down with the Ms. Thomas, talk her through what it actually takes to win, and offer to help next time.  She did say that no matter what, she was gonna do it again in 2010.  I'll do whatever I can.  The good news is that the turnout barrier in GA Democratic primaries is pretty low.

"If you want that good feeling that comes from doing things for other people, then you have to pay for it in abuse and misunderstanding..."
Zora Neale Hurston


Progressives (0.00 / 0)
Every day as I watch the news shows on TV and read the political blogs, I am reminded over and over how badly other Democrats have bashed Obama.  First it was Hillary and Bill and their supporters.  Since Obama has won the nomination it has been the Progressive bloggers.  Republicans has been relatively kind to Obama when compared to these Democrats.  I want to yell and pull my hair out when I read the blogs these days.  I have spent less and less time on Kos because he has become so maddenly anti-Obama, and I find it disturbing that Progressives and Hillary die-hards will not support the Obama campaign financially. What is wrong with us as a party?  Do we have a death wish or something?  I just don't understand it.  In 2000 and in 2004, my candidate did not win the nomination, but I gave money to Kerry and Gore, put their signs in my yard, and voted for them.  Isn't that how we win elections?  For a while there I was considering myself a Progressive, but no more.  I really don't want to be part of a movement that is willing to sabotage our candidate because of his FISA vote.  
Now I am reading this post on Thomas and my jaw drops.  The progressive netroots has been pushing this candidate because she identified herself as a progressive, encouraging readers to send her money.  And yet she got less than 25% of the vote.  Give me a break.  You criticize Obama for his positions on issues that you don't think are progressive enough and yet he has never claimed to be progressive.  You need to wake up and recognize Obama for what he is - part idealist and part pragmatist.  He is a smart politician who has worked his ass off to win this nomination and who is still working his ass off.  If you expect every candidate to have your views on every issue, you will never get anyone elected.  What I wanted in a candidate who  was competent, and I truly believe that Obama is very competent.  What drew me to him was his ability to inspire people and, believe me, this country is hungry for someone who can inspire us again and who actually is a good speaker.  
I think it is time for you progressive bloggers to grow up and realize that you are only hurting our party at the present.  If you are so determined to elect only progressives to office, then I suggest that you begin a new party because the vast majority of Democrats are not progressive.  I think you would find that you would have a very difficult time getting a pure progressive elected in this country. Most good liberal Democrats have progressive views on some subjects and I believwe Obama fits that description.  I wish you could be satisfied with that.

Obama gets played (0.00 / 0)
Come November in Georgia, Obama is going to look more used than Iceberg Slim's bottom h*. The Reagan Demons who supported Barrow are thinking thank you Barack, but we'll be voting for McCain.

I'm a radical independent, and I cannot remember the last time I made a financial contribution to a mainstream party candidate. I contributed to Regina Thomas' campaign primarily to protest Obama's betrayal of a progressive candidate.

Obama must really think these Reagan Demons are too dumb to recognize his bait and switch game. These people are not blinded by Obama's charisma, as many of his Afrikan American and young idealists supporters are.

The hunter got captured by the game in this contest, and Obama will recognize this in November.    


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