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Via Real Clear Politics, this shows registration changes since 2004.
The only good news for the Republicans is Florida, which only shows a relatively slight gain for Democrats. With the Jewish vote going overwhelmingly for Obama, but not as Overwhelmingly as it did for Gore or Kerry, Florida is a tough nut to crack. That said, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire are becoming very winnable for Obama, while Pennsylvania, and Oregon are moving out of swing state territory into solid blue status.
These numbers are a direct result of George Bush and a massively competitive Democratic primary. The consequence is not only a Democratic President and larger majorities in the House and Senate, but a shift in the makeup of districts for incumbents. Right now, members are judged according to what percentage in their district went for Bush in 2004. If a Democrat is in a district that went for Bush by 15 points in 2004, it is understandable why they have a conservative voting record. They have to. That is the 2004 map, and it pushes the caucus to the right.
A whole lot of members now in 'swing districts' according to the 2004 map may soon be in solid blue territory according to the 2008 map, and conservatives will move into 'swing district' territory. All of a sudden, a conservative Congressman according to the 2004 map suddenly must change his behavior to suit his new 'moderate' district, and a moderate is now representing a safe Blue district. The Democratic base will have a lot to work with in terms of moderates and conservatives, unless they change their behavior. The 2008 map could profoundly move all members of Congress to the left.
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