Has the polling really been that bad? (0.00 / 0)

Other than the Rasmussen Ohio it all looks ok to me. Obama leads in Colorado, Michigan and New Hampshire, Georgia is low double digits, he is within 5 in Alaska, North Carolina within 3, ahead in Nevada, tied in Virginia. The tracking polls are close but they were last week when we thought the polling was going well. I'm not too concerned.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 17:21:29 PM CDT

Polling much much closer than it was... (0.00 / 0)

NH with +2 and +3 polls is probably pushed back into swing territory or close, MI and CO both closer than one would hope. The RAS CO is theoretically an improvement over their previous poll, but still could be better.  Same in MI with recent polls there.

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by: leshrac55 @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 17:52:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Don't see how you can say that when we don't have a trend (0.00 / 0)

Different polling companies had the bigger leads. And, frankly, I never expected and don't expect Obama to win in MI and NH and particularly CO by huge margins in any case.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:04:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

ARG are not worthy of that weight being placed upon them (0.00 / 0)

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:06:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Actually (0.00 / 0)

The last polls by the two companies in question for NH (University of NH) and MI (Detroit News) both had McCain ahead in their last poll of their respective state.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:08:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

UNH Polls (0.00 / 0)

are notoriously unreliable. They're only right by accident, so while that one could be accurate, there's no reason to assume so.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.

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by: Lucas O'Connor @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 21:15:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Someone should fill in CNN (4.00 / 1)

"In fact, Obama's lead is large enough in all of these states that there is no statistically valid way to argue that McCain is currently ahead, or even tied, in the electoral college."

According to CNN, Iowa, Michigan, and New Hampshire are still 'toss-ups' while New Mexico 'leans McCain'

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITI...

"Never separate the life you live from the words you speak" -Paul Wellstone

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by: DFLer @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 17:27:49 PM CDT

Well (4.00 / 3)

CNN also thinks Glenn Beck is a valuable contribution to the national news discussion. Credibility is long gone.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.

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by: Lucas O'Connor @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 21:16:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Little recent polling in those states (0.00 / 0)

NH just came out with one with Obama up by 3, but where else?

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by: evie @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 17:48:40 PM CDT

ARG had NH +2 also (0.00 / 0)

A lot closer than polls a few weeks ago suggested.

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by: leshrac55 @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 17:50:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The corporate media is not all dedscribing Obam's Victory (GET THIS STORY OUT!) (4.00 / 1)

It has been called a checkmate, "game set match" and on one site Obama's trump. But its not in all papers and its not on all stations. This bump is building as the story grows. I think this is one story that needs telling over and over again.

It should be written up by a couple of people and spread like a viral note, and as a youtube story and as a song hahha.

McCain can't remember the difference between Al Queda and Iran, he confuses Iran with Afghanistan, Shiite with Sunni and thinks Czechoslovakia is still a country and that it needs his help.

Obama said 6 years ago that occupying Iraq would be a disaster politically, morally, financially and kill tens of thousands, and he saids we should get out as soon as carefully planning allowed. He has been proved right, the Iraqis agree with him and the time to go is now.

This is a man with judgment, common sense and vision. We are lucky to have him as our candidate, and America is smart to choose him him as our President.

Get someone to say this to camera: George Clooney, Al Gore, Sen. Hagel, Sam Nunn you get my point. Someone who will get the piece played, because the face adds to "greenlighting" the statement.

We need to get this story out. Having it happen is not enough, not enough by a long shot. Everyone has to put this into common parlance. Whether it is gane set match, or checkmate, or thats the game or the rotund opera matron has finished her song. Get this story OUT!

Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.

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by: HousesofProgress @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 17:52:39 PM CDT

it's simply polling malpractice (4.00 / 4)

to attribute recent poll movements to Obama's overseas trip.

any poll published today was mostly in the field before Obama arrived at his first stop.

the impact of Obama's trip cannot begin to be measured until he completes his last stop.

moreover most if not all the calls in that poll should be made after he completes his last stop.

i would go one step further and argue that any single news event takes a couple of days to get "digested" by the larger public beyond us news junkies.

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by: bob fertik @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:20:22 PM CDT

Digestion is key (0.00 / 0)

In my observation of bounces,  they only sometimes happen immediately after an event, or after the first or second day of a multi day event.  A digestion period is usually common.

 

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by: Crab Nebula @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:31:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

agreed (0.00 / 0)

and most "bounces" are really just statistical noise.

i don't think it's worth trying to connect any single event to poll movements unless that event dominates the news for several days and has clear one-sided benefits.

since super tuesday, i would argue the only news event that had a real (statistically significant) impact on polls was rev. wright - and the impact disappeared from the polls shortly after obama finally quit his church.

i think obama's trip could have a real but small impact after the huge rally in Berlin, but that assumes the news covers it for more than one cycle. mccain is doing everything he can to steal news cycles from obama, and now hurricane dolly is lending mccain a hand...

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by: bob fertik @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:50:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

i would add (0.00 / 0)

that obama winning the nomination (and clinton dropping out) certainly boosted obama's polls, but i don't really consider that a "news event" because it was inevitable that the democrats would eventually pick a nominee whom the losers would embrace.

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by: bob fertik @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:52:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

McCain has never led an Iowa poll (4.00 / 2)

and I have yet to encounter anyone active in politics (Dem or Republican) here who thinks McCain has a chance to win Iowa. Obama has such a massive organization, and McCain still has only one campaign office and few volunteers.

Iowa will remain a solid part of Obama's firewall.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 20:54:07 PM CDT

CO too close for comfort (0.00 / 0)

CO is too close for comfort right now, but the saving grace is that Obama would only need one of CO, OH, VA, MO, IN, FL, NC or possibly NV but preferably NV+MT or NV+ND to put him over the top.

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by: Allen @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 05:51:44 AM CDT