Obama Firewall Holding

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 17:59


This hasn't been the best week of polling for Obama, as I noted today in both my presidential forecast update and in a look at Obama's apparent lack of a bounce from his overseas trip. However, one very important and very bright spot remains: Obama's firewall states remain untouched.

The 50%+1 Map: Obama 273--265 McCain

This is the bare bones, 50% + 1 map for Obama. It is simply the Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. And, as I noted above, Obama's advantage in these states remains untouched by current polling:

Obama Firewall
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin Obama Total
Obama Base 210 210
Pennsylvania 21 47.3% 40.3% +7.0% 231
Michigan 17 45.5% 38.8% +6.7% 248
New Mexico 5 46.8% 40.5% +6.3% 253
Iowa 7 46.0% 39.8% +6.2% 260
New Hampshire 4 45.8% 41.0% +4.8% 264
Colorado 9 46.5% 43.0% +3.5% 273

In order to win the election, McCain must win at least one of these states. However, McCain has not led in at least six consecutive polls from all of these states. In fact, Obama's lead is large enough in all of these states that there is no statistically valid way to argue that McCain is currently ahead, or even tied, in the electoral college.

This hasn't been the best week of polling. However, as long as the firewall holds, there is no need to panic. It is only when a poll shows McCain ahead in one of these six states that it will be time for real concern.

Chris Bowers :: Obama Firewall Holding

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Obama Firewall Holding | 17 comments
Has the polling really been that bad? (0.00 / 0)
Other than the Rasmussen Ohio it all looks ok to me. Obama leads in Colorado, Michigan and New Hampshire, Georgia is low double digits, he is within 5 in Alaska, North Carolina within 3, ahead in Nevada, tied in Virginia. The tracking polls are close but they were last week when we thought the polling was going well. I'm not too concerned.
Polling much much closer than it was... (0.00 / 0)
NH with +2 and +3 polls is probably pushed back into swing territory or close, MI and CO both closer than one would hope. The RAS CO is theoretically an improvement over their previous poll, but still could be better.  Same in MI with recent polls there.
[ Parent ]
Don't see how you can say that when we don't have a trend (0.00 / 0)
Different polling companies had the bigger leads. And, frankly, I never expected and don't expect Obama to win in MI and NH and particularly CO by huge margins in any case.
[ Parent ]
ARG are not worthy of that weight being placed upon them (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Actually (0.00 / 0)
The last polls by the two companies in question for NH (University of NH) and MI (Detroit News) both had McCain ahead in their last poll of their respective state.
[ Parent ]
UNH Polls (0.00 / 0)
are notoriously unreliable. They're only right by accident, so while that one could be accurate, there's no reason to assume so.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.
[ Parent ]
Someone should fill in CNN (4.00 / 1)
"In fact, Obama's lead is large enough in all of these states that there is no statistically valid way to argue that McCain is currently ahead, or even tied, in the electoral college."

According to CNN, Iowa, Michigan, and New Hampshire are still 'toss-ups' while New Mexico 'leans McCain'

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITI...

"Never separate the life you live from the words you speak" -Paul Wellstone

Well (4.00 / 3)
CNN also thinks Glenn Beck is a valuable contribution to the national news discussion. Credibility is long gone.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.
[ Parent ]
Little recent polling in those states (0.00 / 0)
NH just came out with one with Obama up by 3, but where else?
ARG had NH +2 also (0.00 / 0)
A lot closer than polls a few weeks ago suggested.
[ Parent ]
The corporate media is not all dedscribing Obam's Victory (GET THIS STORY OUT!) (4.00 / 1)
It has been called a checkmate, "game set match" and on one site Obama's trump. But its not in all papers and its not on all stations. This bump is building as the story grows. I think this is one story that needs telling over and over again.

It should be written up by a couple of people and spread like a viral note, and as a youtube story and as a song hahha.

McCain can't remember the difference between Al Queda and Iran, he confuses Iran with Afghanistan, Shiite with Sunni and thinks Czechoslovakia is still a country and that it needs his help.

Obama said 6 years ago that occupying Iraq would be a disaster politically, morally, financially and kill tens of thousands, and he saids we should get out as soon as carefully planning allowed. He has been proved right, the Iraqis agree with him and the time to go is now.

This is a man with judgment, common sense and vision. We are lucky to have him as our candidate, and America is smart to choose him him as our President.

Get someone to say this to camera: George Clooney, Al Gore, Sen. Hagel, Sam Nunn you get my point. Someone who will get the piece played, because the face adds to "greenlighting" the statement.

We need to get this story out. Having it happen is not enough, not enough by a long shot. Everyone has to put this into common parlance. Whether it is gane set match, or checkmate, or thats the game or the rotund opera matron has finished her song. Get this story OUT!

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky

it's simply polling malpractice (4.00 / 4)
to attribute recent poll movements to Obama's overseas trip.

any poll published today was mostly in the field before Obama arrived at his first stop.

the impact of Obama's trip cannot begin to be measured until he completes his last stop.

moreover most if not all the calls in that poll should be made after he completes his last stop.

i would go one step further and argue that any single news event takes a couple of days to get "digested" by the larger public beyond us news junkies.

Digestion is key (0.00 / 0)
In my observation of bounces,  they only sometimes happen immediately after an event, or after the first or second day of a multi day event.  A digestion period is usually common.

 

[ Parent ]
agreed (0.00 / 0)
and most "bounces" are really just statistical noise.

i don't think it's worth trying to connect any single event to poll movements unless that event dominates the news for several days and has clear one-sided benefits.

since super tuesday, i would argue the only news event that had a real (statistically significant) impact on polls was rev. wright - and the impact disappeared from the polls shortly after obama finally quit his church.

i think obama's trip could have a real but small impact after the huge rally in Berlin, but that assumes the news covers it for more than one cycle. mccain is doing everything he can to steal news cycles from obama, and now hurricane dolly is lending mccain a hand...

[ Parent ]
i would add (0.00 / 0)
that obama winning the nomination (and clinton dropping out) certainly boosted obama's polls, but i don't really consider that a "news event" because it was inevitable that the democrats would eventually pick a nominee whom the losers would embrace.
[ Parent ]
McCain has never led an Iowa poll (4.00 / 2)
and I have yet to encounter anyone active in politics (Dem or Republican) here who thinks McCain has a chance to win Iowa. Obama has such a massive organization, and McCain still has only one campaign office and few volunteers.

Iowa will remain a solid part of Obama's firewall.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

CO too close for comfort (0.00 / 0)
CO is too close for comfort right now, but the saving grace is that Obama would only need one of CO, OH, VA, MO, IN, FL, NC or possibly NV but preferably NV+MT or NV+ND to put him over the top.
Obama Firewall Holding | 17 comments
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