Obama's Lead Might Not Be Good For McCain

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 13:07


First Read has a serious question about current polling:

But do consider this question: Which candidate has the bigger problem in the polls -- Obama (who seems to have hit a ceiling in the high 40s) or the better-known McCain (who's stuck in the low 40s in many national or state polls)?

Yes, do consider this question.

Is it better for a candidate to be polling in the high forties or in the low forties? Seriously, think about this one for a while, because the answer isn't as obvious as it seems.

If you are trying to win an election, is it better to be ahead, or behind, in the polls? This question has haunted philosophers since Kirkegaard.

Let me rephrase: is it better to have more public support or less public support? I guess the answer depends on whether or not you hate bands once they become popular. Someone could make a case that McCain isn't actually trying to win the election, and thus being stuck in the low-forties is actually good for him. Still, after lots of tortured inner reflection, I think First Read came on the right answer:

It's a problem for both, but the fact that McCain can't get past 45% in so many polls could be the bigger problem.

Yes, I would have to agree that trailing in the polls is a bigger problem than not trailing in the polls. Good thinking, First Read.

That they even felt compelled to ask the question is demonstrative of a long-standing pundit reflex to argue that everything is good for Republicans.  

Chris Bowers :: Obama's Lead Might Not Be Good For McCain

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Obama's Lead Might Not Be Good For McCain | 19 comments
Do you think trailing lets McCain claim (4.00 / 1)
underdog status? Sometimes that helps a candidate.

But that question aside, nice snark.  

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I think the meme of Obama having problems considering he's actualy leading (4.00 / 4)
prevents McCain from playing to underdog. I also think him complaining about the media didn't work as well as he wanted because the media knows it favors him already so what moe could they do? And how ungrateful could you, McCain, be to want more support?  
[ Parent ]
I think the meme of Obama having problems considering he's actualy leading (0.00 / 0)
prevents McCain from playing to underdog. I also think him complaining about the media didn't work as well as he wanted because the media knows it favors him already so what moe could they do? And how ungrateful could you, McCain, be to want more support?  
[ Parent ]
I was hoping for this (4.00 / 4)
When I read FirstRead today, I couldn't believe my eyes.  I'm just glad someone took up the gauntlet of summoning up sufficient sarcasm.
whoever writes that is pretty stupid (4.00 / 3)
looks at this part later on:

One more thought about the Landstuhl TV ad: Obama cancelling his meeting with US troops really seems to have bothered McCain and his campaign -- personally.

Ah, so will we see some sort of evidence that McCain was really offended on behalf of US troops?  Nope...

Do read this quote in the Washington Post from a GOP strategist: "'They couldn't help themselves,' the strategist said, adding that the ad over the hospital visit is 'churlish and unlike McCain, and hardly will resonate with the swing voters who are going to decide this election.' The strategist continued: 'They're doing it because the candidate, and the campaign, is not happy with where they are and they're lashing out.'"

The quote says that McCain and his people are bothered personally that he's behind.  



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

Brilliant (4.00 / 1)
It wasn't a dumb question when it was Obama and Clinton. (0.00 / 0)
My take on that First Read post is that they're pondering the same issue as during the primary, when 100%-name-recognition Hillary hit a ceiling and the question was whether lesser-known Obama could surpass that ceiling. In other words, the focus here isn't on where things stand (clearly, Obama being ahead is good for Obama) but where things could go.

Has "better-known" (key words) McCain maxed out his potential support? Has Obama as well? Sure, comparatively speaking Obama is doing OK, but not being able to poll above the 40's isn't exactly fantastic for either candidate. High 40s is good for Obama in comparison to McCain, sure, but it's not good for Obama in comparison to where he'd prefer to be.

Frankly, if I'm to read any kind of unspoken assumption in the First Read article, it's that Obama's "problem" isn't beating McCain, but winning enough hearts and minds to secure a big landslide. Obama is really running two races here -- one against McCain, and one against the kind of narrow victory that will put him in the White House without a mandate. He'll probably win the first, but the second is certainly more iffy.

Research 2000 -- Obama 51% McCain 39% (0.00 / 0)
From the Great Orange Satan --

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

By the end of the week we'll know if this is a short term bounce, or the start of Obama pulling away.

Maybe McCain choosing Tim "highway funds veto = collapsing bridge" Pawlenty will pull his chips out of the fire, but I kind of doubt it.

Also -- McCain is old -- really old. And grumpy. And out of touch.

http://www.mccainisreallyold.com/

Get your tee shirt, or McCain McBibb -- hurry, supplies are limited!

[ Parent ]
Against instinct (4.00 / 1)
It really does take posts like this to make you realize just how screwed our press corps is.  He seems genuinely shocked at the idea that the yellow stuff piddling down his pants leg might not actually be rain, no matter what Karl Rove keeps telling him.
Oh, Chis! You've Shamelessly Oversimplified A Very Complex Subject (4.00 / 2)
That they even felt compelled to ask the question is demonstrative of a long-standing pundit reflex to argue that everything is good for Republicans.

It's actually much more complicated than this.  Sometimes everything is good for Republicans.  And sometimes everything is good for conservatives.  Heck, sometimes everything is good for one particular Republican, be he George W. Bush or John "Straight Talk"/POW McCain.

Unfortunately, bloggers such as you simply cannot grasp the complexity of the real world, what with your pajamas and everything.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

Don't forget Rudy!!! .... it's good for him too!!! (4.00 / 2)

[ Parent ]
good snark but (4.00 / 1)
I took First Read's comment as subtly written snark.
Let's not mistake ineptitude for malice (0.00 / 0)
It looks to me as though it is demonstrative of a long-standing pundit reflex to just fill page space and create a horse race, no matter how inane the content.
May I suggest a caveat to hanlon's razor (4.00 / 1)
Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice.
[ Parent ]
dude (4.00 / 1)
Let me rephrase: is it better to have more public support or less public support? I guess the answer depends on whether or not you hate bands once they become popular.

I hate bands who sell out! Rock hard, McCain!! Don't let The Man tell you to go to the high 40's! Keep that hate-mongering real!

I thought I was missing something (0.00 / 0)
I saw that article and thought, "what am I missing...what am I missing?" Apparently I was missing the need to have the obvious pointed out to me.  
we are in for a lot more of this nonsense (0.00 / 0)
All they (the msm) want to do is talk about Obama. And they feel that is their job to decribe any and every flaw, fault or potential pitfall--even when there are none.

Practically speaking, they can't anoint him the winner yet--besides no one should or can do that--but since he is running an almost flawless campaign they have to settle themselves with convoluted nonsense.

BTW you see some of this in poll analysis too--a bump isn't a bump and a lead isn't a lead and a downturn is disaster in the making.

If they called it the way it was they wouldn't have much to talk about.

As long as they don't turn on him I don't much care.

biased msm (0.00 / 0)
i quit following the msm about 6 or 7 years ago because of the slanted reporting and coverage of the anti-democratic gop and its henchpersons. the msm has sat by and watched the nation where i live go down a dangerous path toward fascism without raising a voice in opposition.

the only thing that makes the us a democracy is a free press which we haven't had for years, now all we have is a right wing pravda in sheeps clothing impersonating the free press we once could depend on to protect the citizens from the power of the govt when in the hands of bad actors and fascists.

that job now belongs to a few in the msm that still care about their profession and the nation and democracy they respect in the face of overwhelming odds against the right wing noise machine, and the fascists that man those mikes. you know who you are patriots and you are not alone, we don't have your vehicle to be heard but we are with you and we will have your back on nov 4 2008, the day we take the us back into the sunshine and out of the dark ages.  

obama's lead over mccain (0.00 / 0)
As someone who has done politics for 30+ years, I've always thought that the road to 50% +1 (or its presidential counterpart) is much shorter from 48% than from 41%. But that's just me...
Obama's Lead Might Not Be Good For McCain | 19 comments
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