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From the Des Moines Register...
Candidate Votes Pct.
1. Mitt Romney 4,516 31.6%
2. Mike Huckabee 2,587 18.1%
3. Sam Brownback 2,192 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo 1,960 13.7%
5. Ron Paul 1,305 9.1%
6. Tommy Thompson 1,039 7.3%
7. Fred Thompson 203 1.4%
8. Rudy Giuliani 183 1.3%
9. Duncan Hunter 174 1.2%
10. John McCain 101 0.7%
11. John Cox 41 0.3%
Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson weren't playing. Romney, by contrast, spent at least $200k on the event. Tommy Thompson said he'd leave the race unless he got first or second, so it looks like he's out. In terms of wingnuttia energy, it looks like the nativist Tom Tancredo-ites beat out Ron Paul.
Huckabee is running against the right-wing business elite, and Brownback is the social conservative in the race. They both did very well. I don't have any special insight into this race, though Huckabee's anti-business populism is something to keep an eye on. Huckabee says he wants the Republican Party to stop being a wholly owned subsidiary of Wall Street and the corporations. Good luck on that one.
UPDATE: Patrick Ruffini says that this is deadly for Ron Paul, whose communications director said before the poll that ""We expect to be in the top three...We've got four staffers organizing and we've got a lot of web site RSVPs from volunteers."
Right-wing blogger Soren Dayton notes that Romney people were soliciting paid Democratic staffers to vote for Romney, and gives his thoughts.
My read is that social conservatives are split, and immigration is really important. The fact that Huckabee + Brownback is greater than Romney will be noticed. At best, you can argue that conservatives are leaning Romney. Thompson will get in and take votes from Romney, whose support is soft.
We are moving in to a weird situation with the conservative votes getting split many different ways. At the same time, Cox, Hunter, Thompson, etc. all need to get out. Ron Paul doesn't really get a bump.
The interesting dynamic going forward will be whether Brownback and Huckabee go after each other or they go after Romney. Or Fred Thompson…
Giuliani (and to a lesser extent McCain) has got to be thrilled. With no clear opponent coming out of this, although Romney is the strongest, he can go forward, while the conservatives in the race still have to figure out how to cut up the field for themselves.
The Ron Paul dynamic is eerily similar to Dean's experience in the Iowa caucuses.
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