There's chatter (0.00 / 0)

that Bayh will be the VP choice. If so, I think that's a grave mistake, for a lot of reasons, but mainly because Obama needs a good attack dog for a running mate, and Bayh isn't it.

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by: NR @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:14:00 PM CDT

Well... (0.00 / 0)

Kind of annoying, but at least he's well liked in IN and, who knows, maybe he'll find his inner progressive sometime...

Yeah, yeah... tall order, but whatever... he won't be president (yet).

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by: leshrac55 @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:26:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

if Bayh turns out to be the VP ... (4.00 / 1)

which I doubt he'll be ... maybe Evan will some how channel his dad somehow .. but I still say Obama will be choosing the wrong Bayh ... Evan's dad is a lot more proressive .. and still has that fire burning inside

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 20:03:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Obama picking Bayh (0.00 / 0)

would be like Gore picking Lieberman. No thanks.

Thank Spaghetti I put no stock at all in the "chatter". Obama is going to pick whoever the hell he wants, whenever he wants to.

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by: illissius @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:34:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Also mentioned this at MyDD (4.00 / 6)

But all the Bayh and before that Kaine chatter reminds me of Hunter Thompson in Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail (minus the Catholic part):

"It struck me as a cheap and unnecessary concession to the pieced-off ward-heeler syndrome that McGovern had been fighting all along. Tom Eagleton was exactly the kind of VP candidate that Muskie or Humphrey would have chosen: a harmless, Catholic, neo-liberal Rotarian nebbish from one of the border states, who presumably wouldn't make waves. A 'progressives young centrist' with more ambition than brains: Eagleton would have run with anybody.
...
If George gets stomped in November, it will not be because of anything Richard Nixon did to him. The blame will trace straight back to his brain-trust, to whoever had his ear tight enough to convince him that all that bullshit about "new politics" was fine for the primaries, but it would never work against Nixon-so he would have to abandon his original power base...and swiftly move to consolidate the one he'd just shattered: the Meany/Daley/Humphrey/Muskie axis, the senile remnants of the Democratic Party's once-powerful 'Roosevelt Coalition'"

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.

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by: Lucas O'Connor @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:34:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good find (0.00 / 0)

Hunter speaks truth from the grave.

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by: recusancy @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:59:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A shame what happened with him (0.00 / 0)

You would think he would want to be around to see one more history-making election.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

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by: LandStander @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 20:07:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I smell a Rosenberg reply coming .... ;-) (0.00 / 0)

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 22:07:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If only =) (4.00 / 1)

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.

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by: Lucas O'Connor @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 16:43:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not only is Bayh a weak #2 (4.00 / 2)

he'll make Obama look extremely weak, which is already a rapidly growing problem. Bayh magnifies all of Obama's perceived weaknesses and gives the impression that Obama is trying to compensate for them. Obama has already made it extremely difficult to continue selling him as an authentic, principled politician. It will be 10 times harder if he selects a pro-war DLC Clintonite to be his VP. This will also continue undermining efforts to expose McCain as a habitual flip-flopper. Rather than attacking McCain for selling out his principles, Obama has apparently decided to follow him.

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by: vosh @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 20:02:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bayh would suck and be fine at same time (0.00 / 0)

I doubt he's the pick.  My thinking is that he'd be bad for progressivism, but he also won't hurt the race.  If 23,000 voters nationwide defect to Nader because Bayh's on the ticket, oh well.   If his numbers are that good, I'd happily take him if he delivered Indiana and nobody else could deliver a state.

Then, it's an 8 Year Pressure Vise to get him to move ideologically and/or find a decent challenger for 2016.  Or, if we get lucky, so much gets done in 8 years we won't even mind having him as a nominee.  He's probably malleable, like any ambitious politician.

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by: Crab Nebula @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 20:25:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It is interesting that in both 2000 and 2004, (0.00 / 0)

major, significant movement in the polls in both cases began right about... now. I wonder if we'll see that replicated.

Did Gore have a good turnout operation in 2000? It is curious that Gore outperformed his final polling by quite a significant margin, while Kerry underperformed his. If organization is a plausible reason, that gives me much better hope for Obama's chances in 2008. (In the primary campaign (or at least the latter half), in states with primaries and not caucuses, all of Obama's vaunted organizing didn't seem to budge the results very much -- to be fair, neither did flooding the airwaves with ads. Which makes me wonder how well all the effort and resources the Obama campaign is putting into organizing for the general is going to pay off, given that it's not going to be a caucus.)

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by: illissius @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:44:55 PM CDT

People were motivated in 2004... (4.00 / 1)

...on both sides. But perhaps more motivated on the right, considering all the jingoistic fervor at the time.
I have heard 2004 referred to many times as the high water mark of evangelical turnout, a phenomenon that McCain would be hard-pressed to mimic. Perhaps that is the cause of Bush's over-performance.

At least we can look forward to a new high-water mark for black voter turnout, and with a little luck, young voters too.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

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by: LandStander @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 20:12:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

In the last month, Obama has... (4.00 / 4)

 - repeatedly praised John McCain as an "honorable" man while leaving Democrats like Wes Clark hanging out to dry
 - moved to the right on drilling
 - moved to the right on FISA
 - sat idly by as McCain questioned his patriotism
 - sat idly by as McCain launched a barrage of libelous attack ads
 - failed to expose any of McCain's many weaknesses

 All this after insisting that he would not be swiftboated.

 Gee, I can't imagine why he's not leaving McCain in the dust. He's done all the right DLC things! And their way always works.

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

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by: Master Jack @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 20:31:32 PM CDT

Huh? (0.00 / 0)

When did he insist he wouldn't be swiftboated?  Actually, I recall him saying several times that he would be, and that he'd be ready.  That appears to be what he was wrong about... not because he's not really responding, but because he refuses to respond in kind.

Here's the thing.. .people hate politicians... rightly or wrongly, they already expect this kind of bullshit in the campaigns.  They'll say over and over again that they hate it, yet they're still influenced by it.  People expect a dog-fight for the presidency, and if one person doesn't respond... well, we know how that goes.

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by: leshrac55 @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 22:41:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I thought that's what Master Jack meant (4.00 / 3)

That Obama wouldn't let them get away with swiftboating like Kerry did. But he's doing precisely that. I wouldn't say he needs need to respond in kind, but he does need to stop pretending people will see through the BS and that this election will be won on issues. These things would be true if we had a responsible news media that actually covered issues. But we don't, which is why McCain remains widely viewed as Mr. Moderate Maverick, and why Obama's policy speeches may as well be delivered deep in the forests of the Far East, for all the coverage they get.

Here's the thing.. .people hate politicians... rightly or wrongly, they already expect this kind of bullshit in the campaigns.  They'll say over and over again that they hate it, yet they're still influenced by it.  People expect a dog-fight for the presidency, and if one person doesn't respond... well, we know how that goes.

Exactly. Obama is essentially playing the prevent defense and cementing the narrative that he is weak.

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by: vosh @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 23:10:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Obama can singlehandledly fix opinion and crush McCain? (0.00 / 0)

...he can singlehandedly undo decades of well-funded GOP brainwashing of the public? Of their effective negative branding?

Leaving McCain in the dust is impossible.  You're confusing your head with your heart.

Your order is way too tall.  It will take several cycles.  

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by: Crab Nebula @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 11:50:30 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm trying to remind myself.. (0.00 / 0)

...that with the completely pathetic and worthless Kerry campaign, he only needed about 100,000 votes to win the 2004 election... most of them stolen...  I think we can beat that, even though things are just not looking good at all right now...

I hope, at least...  it's the only thing letting me sleep at night...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

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by: lord_mike @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 00:00:24 AM CDT

Yeah .. Strickland is gone from Ohio .. (0.00 / 0)

so even if Obama wins all the Kerry states ... plus Ohio .. he wins

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 00:37:31 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I meant Blackwell (0.00 / 0)

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 08:51:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

One thing to note is that this shouldn't be a surprise (4.00 / 1)

McCain has to spend all of his money before the convention I believe.  So you should expect him to spend a lot and get an uptick right now.

The liberal wiki
Send an email to terra@liberalwiki.com

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by: TerraFF @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 04:28:22 AM CDT

thank you for posting this (4.00 / 1)

this chart more than any polling detail i have seen thus far makes it clear that negative framing by the gop can and has destroyed us. this election is not in the bag by any means. there is a lot of work to do.

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by: aiko @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:06:47 AM CDT