So, despite rumors, there was no announcement of Evan Bayh as Obama's Vice-President today. Mark this down right along with rumors that Tim Kaine was about to be announced as Obama's Vice-President. Here is a tip for people trying to make such predictions in the future: in all likelihood, within either twenty-four or forty-eight hours of the actual announcement, the campaign will announce that it is about to announce Obama's pick. I am pretty sure that every campaign in recent memory has done this. The date and time of the announcement won't be a surprise, even if the actual person selected still might be.
Then again, it won't be that much of a surprise, since the same five names keep getting re-circulated: Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Tim Kaine and Kathleen Sebelius. There are still occasional mentions of Hillary Clinton and Sam Nunn, but they seem highly unlikely. There seems to be a five-person short list, and the names are Biden, Bayh, Dodd, Kaine, and Sebelius.
In the extended entry, I take a look at the various statements Obama would be making with each of these five picks.
Here are some things that Obama's Vice-Presidential pick would mean about Obama:
I was really, really right about the Iraq war: If Obama goes with Kaine or Sebelius, it will say that Obama intends to keep running on his judgment in opposing the Iraq war. Both Kaine and Sebelius are Catholics and opposed the war as part of a broader, more coherent, "culture of life" philosophy that I am quite familiar with from my upbringing. As opposed to Bush's cafeteria of life, the actual culture of life philosophy opposes the death penalty and war. Also, like Kaine, Sebelius and my mother, it opposes abortion, but not necessarily in a legal sense. While this isn't the same reason that Obama (or I) opposed the war, it would still serve as a reinforcing pick on Iraq judgment. If he goes with one of these two, it seems likely that he just doesn't trust anyone who supported the war.
I really, really didn't like my top-tier opponents: If Obama goes with Bayh, Biden or Dodd, all of whom either ran for President or heavily explored the possibility, it will send a pretty strong signal that he didn't much care for either Edwards or Clinton. It is hard for me to think of an instance where a vice-presidential choice came from the second tier of presidential candidates, so this message would be hard to miss. It would also provide more insight into why Obama ran for President in the first place, since before he ran everyone thought it would be Edwards vs. Clinton in the top tier. Clearly, he didn't much care for either of them.
Now, more specifically for each of the final five:
Evan Bayh: A Bayh selection would be the equivalent of Gore picking Joe Lieberman in 2000. It would signal, loud and clear to the D.C. establishment, that Obama doesn't intend to rock any boats once in office. As a former head of the DLC, organizer of the Senate centrist caucus, and son of a former Senator, Evan Bayh is about as centrist, elite establishment as one gets in D.C. Maybe it wouldn't even be the equivalent of Gore picking Lieberman, because at least Gore was running on a "people vs. the powerful" message that did rock a few boats for a while, casting doubt in some minds as to whether Gore was still the same guy who helped foundthe DLC in the 1980's. Obama, by contrast, is not really running that sort of populist campaign.
Joe Biden: I think the message with Biden would be that Obama wants to attack McCain pretty hard, but he is leery of delivering too many of the attacks himself. Biden is a top-notch attack dog, and would serve that function well for Obama. He is also an excellent debater, and I thought he "won" all four debates I saw him in back in 2007. Biden is also McCain's Democratic doppleganger, as he shows up on Sunday talk shows more than any other Democrat. As such, he might be the perfect anti-McCain attack dog. A Wesley Clark pick would have sent similar signals, since Clark is also an excellent attacker.
Chris Dodd: Picking Dodd would be the exact opposite of picking Bayh, in that it would send a signal that Obama intends to shake up the establishment. After the recent fights he has picked, Dodd is not very well liked by establishment types, and they would hear this message loud and clear. As such, Dodd is the most dangerous pick for Obama, since he could receive a bit of a backlash, but also the most exciting. Although I intend to work hard anyway, I would really work my ass off for an Obama-Dodd ticket.
Tim Kaine: A Kaine pick means "I'm more conservative than you thought." Kaine is, in many ways, quite a bit like Obama. Both opposed the war, both have backgrounds working on urban issues (Kaine was a housing rights lawyer and a mid-size city mayor)), both have extensive international exposure (Kaine spent time in Central America), both are pretty religious (Kaine was a missionary), both are relatively new to national politics, etc. In many ways he is a strongly reinforcing pick. As such, pretty much everything about Kaine will appear to reinforce Obama. Given that Kaine is probably the most conservative choice among the final five, it would end up saying that about Obama, as well.
Kathleen Sebelius: The only real flaw with Sebelius is that she is boring. As such, if Obama picked her, it would signal that he intends to run a pretty cautious campaign, and also to govern cautiously. A Sebelius pick means that he intends to quietly govern as a progressive, with small-bore targets rather than grandiose fights, ala Dodd.
These are not the only things that Obama would be saying with each of these selections, but they are the first things that come to mind. What would each of these VP picks mean to you?
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