Opening the Day: Russia To Cease Fighting?

by: Matt Stoller

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 10:12


It is ridiculously nice out in DC.

  • So says the Russians.  Skirmishes continue.  Apparently the US tried to warn Georgia not to give any reasons for Russia to engage militarily, which I suppose speaks well of US strategy.

  • McCain has a new ad out called 'fan club'.

    The McCain campaign is really hitting their groove, media-wise.  They are committed to being a bunch of bullying assholes, the kids throwing the most popular and most hated frat party on campus.

  • Obama has a 'problem' with older Americans.

    "Kids today have been given everything they want, and don't have to work for it. They have no respect for authority," said Rutherford, standing at the bar at the Elks lodge here. "They'll make remarks right to the face of the [mall] cops. I get to the point where I want to do something," he said, cocking a fist as if to threaten a punch. "But the police say we can't, that we just have to stand there." It makes him worry for the country. "I see it going the Roman way."

    Bahhh.  And it's the older generation of wingnuts funding McCain.

  • There's a Florida surge of Democratic registration.

  • The Politico has a new piece out on Harry Reid's reelection campaign in 2010.  It's going to be very very tough for him.

  • Government managers are more open to letting their employees telework.

  • Global warming is dropping as a concern for most Americans.

    According to a survey [PDF] from ABC News, Planet Green and Stanford University, fewer than half -- 47 percent -- of Americans consider global warming an important issue to them personally, down from 52 percent in April 2007. Although a vast majority still think the planet is warming -- 8 in 10 respondents -- that figure is also down from last year, having dropped 4 percentage points. Furthermore, in an open-ended question, the number of respondents who called global warming the biggest environmental challenge facing the world fell 8 points from 2007 and currently hovers at 25 percent.

  • Pelosi says she'll consider a vote on drilling.  I'll try to find out more on what the strategy is here.

What are you reading?

Matt Stoller :: Opening the Day: Russia To Cease Fighting?

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Opening the Day: Russia To Cease Fighting? | 21 comments
Reid (0.00 / 0)
I don't see any evidence in that article that Reid will have a tough time, any more than he is "a darling of the left."  In fact, quite the opposite:  The article shows that he is not doing what the left wants, and is taking his re-election very seriously.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
Bingo!! (0.00 / 0)
But this is the usual trash from a right-wing rag .. besides .. after the success of taking out Daschle .. the right will always try to go after the top Democrat in the Senate(unless that Democrat is from a super safe seat) .. as the article basically admits in so many words .. if Porter loses re-election this year .. the chances are slim he'll run against Reid .. at least the article quotes Stoller and Markos     ;-)
[ Parent ]
On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction (4.00 / 1)
Oliver Tickell in the Guardian:

We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told the Guardian last week. At first sight this looks like wise counsel from the climate science adviser to Defra. But the idea that we could adapt to a 4C rise is absurd and dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a catastrophe that would mean, in the immortal words that Chief Seattle probably never spoke, "the end of living and the beginning of survival" for humankind. Or perhaps the beginning of our extinction.

The collapse of the polar ice caps would become inevitable, bringing long-term sea level rises of 70-80 metres. All the world's coastal plains would be lost, complete with ports, cities, transport and industrial infrastructure, and much of the world's most productive farmland.

And so on.

Anyone who thinks we are going to do anything serious to head off this catastrophe, before it becomes inevitable, just hasn't been paying attention.

We now have less than 100 months, under optimistic assumptions, to head off a runaway greenhouse effect.

On the bright side... (0.00 / 0)
... destruction on this level should cut down on our carbon production dramatically.

So our extinction seems pretty unlikely.

[ Parent ]
Runaway greenhouse will no longer require human intervention (0.00 / 0)
E.g. melting of the permafrost will liberate vast quantities of methane, a much worse greenhouse gas than CO2.  Then there is reduced albedo from melting of the ice caps, the oceans approaching saturation point , etc.

The question is, do we want to give up and prepare for the consequences of runaway global warming (and predictably have a protracted debate as to whether it will catastrophic or just be uncomfortable, how many hundreds of millions or billions will perish, whether in the long term human civilization can survive, etc), along this route....

....or do we want to stave off going down that route in the first place?

Most people just don't get the implications of going down that route.  They figure if it gets hotter, they'll turn up the AC.

The human race does not have a lock on survival as a species.

Remember, 100 months.

Under optimistic assumptions.

It was supposed to take 60 years for the northern ice cap to disappear.  Now it's looking more like 5 years.

This is an issue where only the terminally stupid engage in snark.

[ Parent ]
We should be dominating the >65ers (4.00 / 2)
I mean, for Christ's sake - there is video of McCain saying that Social Security is a disgrace. That clip should be playing on an endless loop on Florida TV from here until November.  
Obama has a 'problem' with older Americans .. (0.00 / 0)
did anyone read that article? .. they interview some dude at an Elks Club ... who has a Manhattan in his hand ... how frakin' elitist is that???  See .. Obama even has problems with old elitists!!
Strategy? Hah. (0.00 / 0)
There is no strategy to this Democratic Congress and never really has been. Pelosi's words are part of their usual practice of caving to the Republicans in order to avoid an assumed loss of face or support among a supposedly Republican-friendly electorate. Republicans will soon discover they have no incentive to give the Dems anything as part of a drilling package and later this month or early in September we'll see offshore drilling legalized for hardly anything in return.
NPR (0.00 / 0)
I listen to NPR every morning. Every once in a while some unfamiliar voice will come on that talks just a little to fast and loud. Someone was just rapidly screaming at me about the Russian withdrawal. Good news, though.

As encouraging as those Florida numbers are (6% gain in registration, wow!) I am still inclined to write that state off. I just checked the Pollster composite and it stands at McCain 46, Obama 44.9, with Obama rapidly gaining. Still, after being burned two elections in a row, do we really want to depend on Florida? 538.com lists Florida as the 10th most likely 'tipping point' state. That sounds about right. Seems like in most scenarios Obama has already won the election if he wins Florida.

From this June 30 Open Left article...
http://www.openleft.com/showDi...
...it appears Obama is really going overboard on spending in this state. Is there newer spending data by state? $5 million is not small amount of money. Imagine what that could buy in Alaska, Montana, Nevada and New Mexico. He had spent 5 times in Florida what he had spent in those four states as of June 30. I hope that ratio has changed in since then.

Oh - Sean Tevis is on NPR right now, discussing his 'xkcd' comic. Check it out if you haven't already. If you're like me, you will find yourself compelled to send $10 to this pro-science Kansas state legislature candidate.


"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

I don't think he's going overboard... (0.00 / 0)
The state is competitive.. even if there is only a 10% chance of winning it, if he DOES manage to win it, the election will be over at 9pm...

Obama has the money to hedge his bets, McCain does not... Since McCain feels he can win the state without competing for it, go in an make a go of it.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Yeah.... (0.00 / 0)
...I'll be more convinced once McCain starts sinking his own money into the state. I suppose it is inevitable, but so far he has shown remarkable restraint.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
Anatol Lieven--Background On Russia v. Georgia (0.00 / 0)
In The Times provides a little historical realism (always good to know whether you're playing chess, checkers, or Texas hold 'em):

Analysis: roots of the conflict between Georgia, South Ossetia and Russia
Anatol Lieven

Many factors are involved in the present conflict but the central one is straightforward: the majority of the Ossetes living south of the main Caucasus range in Georgia wish to unite with the Ossetes living to the north, in an autonomous republic of the Russian Federation; and the Georgians, regarding South Ossetia as both a legal and an historic part of their national territory, refuse to accept this.

Twice in the past century, when the empire to the north weakened and Georgia declared its independence, the southern Ossetes revolted against Georgian rule. It happened in 1918-20, between the collapse of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union's conquest of Georgia in 1921; and it happened again in our own time with the fall of the Soviet Union.

In 1918-20, between 5,000 and 15,000 people died, depending on whose figures you believe. For the conflicts since 1990, the figure is about 4,000 and rising.

As the Soviet Union began to crumble in 1989, and Georgian nationalist moves for independence gathered pace, so too did Ossete nationalism and demands for separation from Georgia.

The whole thing is well worth reading, as it will help you know which 90% of the bloviating to disregard (above and beyond the usual suspects, of course).

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

I can see an Obama ad with Republicans and Lobbyists as Frat Boys (4.00 / 2)
Show them drinking martinis and hurling very lame insults at the average folk that walk by.  Counter McCain's subtle racism by including a mix of minorities in the groups being insulted.  Use insults like, "You don't want to vote for that smart guy, you want to party like us but you can't because you're not rich.  Ha ha ha!"  Then flash images of McCain and Lobbyists and McCain with Bush holding McCain's birthday cake. End with, "If you want our government to work for you instead of throwing a party for the lobbyists, vote for Obama."

Since they are playing these ad games we need to project an image of Obama as the smart but cool kid that takes on the entrenched evil group of popular rich kids.  It's been a theme in every college/high school movie comedy for decades and could easily form a narrative.

John McCain wants to put SS in hedge funds.

shorter Elks member Rutherford: (4.00 / 2)
"Hey, kids, GIT OFFA my LAWN!!!"

Not much you can do about those voters, but Jason C. is precisely right. McCain called Social Security a disgrace and still proposes the Bush privatization scheme, which is about as popular with seniors as intestinal flu. Why this isn't running on constant loop on the teevee is a mystery to me. Maybe the Obama people are waiting until September. I hope so.  

Russia isn't stopping the fighting... (4.00 / 1)
....anything that comes out of Putin's mouth should never be trusted...  they won't stop until the whole of the country is occupied...

I also wouldn't trust the white house's words on this issue, either... all indications are that this administration encouraged the georgian president to attack, although it's certainly possible that the georgian president misinterpreted the "support" from the white house... He is known to be an emotional hothead who doesn't think things through before acting... kind of like McCain...

As for Pelosi, I'm a bit surprised that she's held out so long.... democrats usually cave pretty quickly... hopefully, they will poison pill the drilling bill to make it at least painful for Republicans to vote for... somehow, I doubt it...  a good poison pill would be to require all offshore drilled oil to remain in the US and not be sold on the global market.  Republicans would never agree to such a stipulation and would allow us to pivot them on this issue...

As for global warming being a lower concern for americans, the reason is obvious... gas prices... people are selfish, and right now, only care about their small pocketbook concerns... which is why the stupid drilling issue gains any traction... it's an incredible scam, but people are desperate and stupid...  It's sad that Republicans "me first" thinking have weakened the American populace so much that no one is willing to make a sacrifice for the good of the country or the world anymore...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

I wouldn't trust Saakashvili either (4.00 / 1)
The Russians would lie if it aided their cause, but if a news crew gets evidence of any bombing anywhere outside South Ossetia, that becomes frontpage news and Russia loses a lot of credibility. They have no incentive to lie.

Whereas Saakashvili has made statements that at present appear to be untrue (the attack on Gori, the numbers of planes shot down.) I suspect Medvedev was telling the truth, but that doesn't mean peace will prevail.

It means the Russians have achieved their strategic objectives and can now dig in and negotiate for a humiliating Georgian climbdown. And if that doesn't happen, I could see the fighting starting up again.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Saakashvilli is a piece of work, too... (0.00 / 0)
....from what I've read, he's been considered to be "mr. annoying man" in European circles for some time...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
Global warming selective memory (0.00 / 0)
It doesn't surprise me that the number of people thinking global warming is a problem has dropped from last summer.  Last summer we had the mega-fires in L.A. and San Diego and a roasting heat wave.  This summer we have mega-fires in northern California but nowhere near big cities, so the national media outlets don't care as much. And the heat waves (if there are any - pardon my lack of weather knowledge outside the Bay Area) aren't making the news because of the presidential campaign, olympics, etc. My theory is that people get worried about global warming only when they can see the effects happening RIGHT NOW, which is why it's so hard to get a semi-informed public worried about this problem over the long term. A classic collective action dilemma.
Begich (0.00 / 0)
If he gets elected, one hopes he will talk to every microphone he can find about villages in Alaska sinking into melting permafrost....and the vast deposits of methane that are being liberated as the permafrost melts.....

Once the electorate wakes up to the full implications of global warming, the current generation of dinosaurs in Congress will be rapidly swept away.  Unfortunately by then it may be too late to do anything to stop the runaway train.....

[ Parent ]
Story on Voter Reg As An Emerging Battleground in the WSJ (0.00 / 0)
Voter Registration Is the New Battleground
By COREY DADE and JOHN D. MCKINNON
August 12, 2008; Page A4

As Barack Obama tries to draw hundreds of thousands of new voters to the polls, Republicans are beginning to scrutinize registrants' eligibility as both sides draw a major battle line over voting rights.

Republicans are moving to examine surges in voter registrations in some states. A Republican lawyers group held a national training session on election law over the weekend that included campaign attorneys for Sen. John McCain and other Republican leaders. One session discussed how party operatives can identify and respond to instances of voter fraud.

Republicans said they are particularly worried about prospects for fraud in Virginia and Pennsylvania, and are beginning to comb thousands of new registrations in those states for ineligible applicants. In some cases the huge numbers threaten to swamp their efforts -- and those of state and local governments to verify and process applications.

Election officials in Virginia and other states say there is no evidence of widespread fraud so far. Numerous studies have found fraud and other voting irregularities in past elections to be infrequent and generally not prevalent enough to influence the outcomes of most contests. Some Republican lawyers say that despite the huge numbers of new registrations in some areas, this year's problems could be fewer compared to prior years, because of improved procedures and tougher rules.

More here:http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB121850477150231953.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_topbox

The thing about "those damn kids" (0.00 / 0)
Who raised them? yyyyyyyeah.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.
Opening the Day: Russia To Cease Fighting? | 21 comments
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