Open Left Presidential Forecast, Aguust 14th

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 13:19


Electoral College: Obama 264, McCain 183, Toss-up 91 (270 to win)
National popular vote: Obama 46.2%-42.7% McCain


(Dark Blue (215): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (49): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (91): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (87): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (96): McCain +7.6% or more)

New polls from Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, New Jersey, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia (2), Washington, and Wisconsin. the only category change is in Pennsylvania, which downgrades from "Solid Obama" to "Lean Obama." It should be noted that Adam B has a good piece on why recent Pennsylvania polling, which still shows Obama ahead with greater than 95% certainty, is far more pro-McCain than reality.

Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin Obama Total
Obama Base 243 243
Michigan 17 46.0% 42.8% +3.2% 260
New Hampshire 4 45.5% 42.5% +3.0% 264
Colorado 9 46.8% 44.5% +2.3% 273
Ohio 20 45.4% 44.0% +1.4% 293
Virginia 13 45.8% 45.8% Even 306
Nevada 5 43.0% 44.0% -1.0% 311
North Dakota 3 42.3% 43.5% -1.2% 314
Indiana 11 43.3% 45.3% -2.0% 325
Montana 3 44.3% 46.5% -2.2% 328
Florida 27 44.6% 46.9% -2.3% 355
Missouri 11 45.3% 48.0% -2.7% 366
North Carolina 15 43.4% 46.8% -3.4% 381
Alaska 3 43.0% 46.5% -3.5% 384

The campaign continues to change very little, although there has been an incremental shift toward McCain over the last six weeks. Overall, since Obama's late June peek, it seems that McCain has gained about 1-2% both nationally and across the state polls. Even though the McCain campaign is regularly lying, contradicting itself, and running a truly nasty campaign, he has largely been given a pass. The amount of cognitive dissonance in the media coverage of McCain has reached Bush first term levels. The good thing  is that Obama still leads despite it. Still, The coming VP picks and conventions will be absolutely key--much more important than the debates.

State by state details in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: Open Left Presidential Forecast, Aguust 14th
Solid Obama: 215 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
California 55 52.8% 36.3% +15.5% 4
Connecticut 7 54.5% 36.3% +18.2% 4
Delaware 3 50.0% 41.0% +9.0% 1
D.C. 3 -- -- +80.0% 0
Hawaii 4 61.0% 31.0% +30.0% 1
Illinois 21 55.5% 35.3% +20.2% 4
Maine-AL* 2 50.3% 36.0% +14.3% 4
Maine-01* 1 -- -- +17.5% 0
Maine-02* 1 -- -- +11.1% 0
Maryland 10 51.5% 37.3% +14.2% 4
Massachusetts 12 51.6% 35.2% +16.4% 5
Minnesota 10 48.3% 40.3% +8.8% 4
New Mexico 5 48.5% 40.3% +8.2% 4
New Jersey 15 50.0% 39.3% +10.7% 4
New York 31 51.5% 33.8% +17.7% 4
Oregon 7 49.5% 40.0% +9.5% 4
Rhode Island 4 50.8% 31.0% +19.8% 4
Vermont 3 60.0% 32.5% +27.5% 2
Washington 11 50.0% 39.5% +10.5% 4
Wisconsin 10 48.5% 40.8% +7.7% 4

Lean Obama: 49 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Iowa 7 47.0% 41.3% +5.7% 4
Michigan 17 46.0% 42.8% +3.2% 4
New Hampshire 4 45.5% 42.5% +3.0% 4
Pennsylvania 21 48.8% 42.0% +6.8% 4

Toss-up: 91 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Colorado 9 46.8% 44.5% +2.3% 4
Florida 27 44.6% 46.9% -2.3% 7
Indiana 11 43.3% 45.3% -2.0% 4
Montana 3 44.3% 46.5% -2.2% 4
Nevada 5 43.0% 44.0% -1.0% 4
North Dakota 3 42.3% 43.5% -1.2% 4
Ohio 20 45.4% 44.0% +1.4% 5
Virginia 13 45.8% 45.8% Even 4

Lean McCain: 87 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Alaska 3 43.0% 46.5% -3.0% 4
Georgia 15 41.8% 48.5% -6.7% 4
Missouri 11 45.3% 48.0% -2.7% 4
Nebraska-02** 1 -- -- -7.0% 0
North Carolina 15 43.4% 46.8% -3.4% 5
South Carolina 8 40.0% 46.8% -6.8% 4
Texas 34 39.3% 45.8% -6.5% 4

Solid McCain: 96 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Alabama 9 36.0% 50.8% -14.3% 4
Arizona 10 37.0% 46.5% -9.5% 4
Arkansas 6 38.0% 49.0% -11.0% 4
Idaho 4 38.0% 52.5% -14.5% 2
Kansas 6 37.8% 53.0% -15.2% 4
Kentucky 8 38.5% 51.8% -13.3% 4
Louisiana 9 38.5% 51.3% -12.8% 4
Mississippi 6 43.0% 51.3% -8.3% 4
Nebraska-AL** 2 35.3% 53.3% -18.0% 4
Nebraska-01** 1 -- -- -12.0% 0
Nebraska-03** 1 -- -- -36.0% 0
Oklahoma 7 30.0% 53.0% -23.0% 4
South Dakota 3 38.8% 47.5% -8.7% 3
Tennessee 11 34.8% 50.8% -16.0% 4
Utah 5 32.0% 55.3% -23.3% 4
West Virginia 5 36.0% 49.0% -13.0% 2
Wyoming 3 37.5% 53.5% -16.0% 2

* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.

** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.

Methodology
I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.

  1. For each state, take the last four polls conducted for the state, and average them.
  2. If more than four polls were conducted in the state over the previous thirty days, all polls conducted during that time period are included in the averages.
  3. If polling dates overlap, and make it difficult to determine which polls were the four most recent, include all of the overlapping polls.
  4. No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation. Also, if a polling firm has conducted more than one of the most recent four polls, all of the polls from that organization are included.

As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease.  

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Open Left Presidential Forecast, Aguust 14th | 27 comments
VP + conventions "much more important than the debates"? (0.00 / 0)
I'm not sure how you can make that confident a prediction.  Debates can move the polling numbers pretty significantly all on their own in presidential races.
Especially if McCain underperforms (0.00 / 0)
Say, loses it, or stumbles or mumbles badly, or has a "senior moment" and stares blankly at the questioner like when he was asked about requiring insurance companies to pay for contraception if they paid for Viagra, for example.

I think that the conventions will be important, esp the Dem one, in showcasing the nominee.  The VP pick will not be important in itself, but if it is Biden or some other good attacker, it will be important in begining to puncture McCain's aura.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
Conventions moreso than VP picks I think... (0.00 / 0)
I just can't help thinking that the GOP going last is just a massive advantage, as it was in 2004.  If McCain comes out ahead after the RNC (say, check a 1-2 weeks after it's done), then we'll have to rely on the debates... again... to try and shift the campaign once more.  I really hope it does not come down to that.

If Obama can maintain any lead whatsoever immediately following the RNC, we'll be in a very good position.

Convention bounces usually show up right away (0.00 / 0)
I don't think we'll have to wait 1 or 2 weeks after the conventions to see who has or hasn't gotten a bounce.
[ Parent ]
That's my point... (0.00 / 0)
Bounces are usually temporary... so you have to wait a week to see if it's going to recede.  I predict a lot of hand-wringing here during and immediately after the RNC since it could very well boost McCain into a 2-4 point lead nationally (or even more), but I think we'll have to wait a week to see if whatever bounce McCain is able to get out of his convention will hold.

My hope is that Obama gets a massive bounce and launches into a 10+ point lead (temporarily, of course), and then McCain is able to shave off no more than 7-8 points of it, and then it recedes back to a 5 point race which Obama can build on from there.  Again, if we get out of the RNC without McCain ever showing any lead in any of the trackers or national composite, I think that speaks extremely well for us.

[ Parent ]
The Real Worry (4.00 / 1)
is if McCain picks his VP the day of the convention or the day after or something.  However, when it gets down to it, I actually think this year the debates are much more important than Chris thinks.  At the debates, Obama just has to show poise and that he can go back and forth with McCain and that will convince a lot of undecideds.
[ Parent ]
This is pretty much a guarantee... (0.00 / 0)
I think the media has already slotted Friday, August 29 as the day that McCain introduces his VP pick.  One possible upside:  It's a weekend (a long one at that), so maybe the "bounce" he gets from that will be diminished.
[ Parent ]
I think the problem in 2004 (0.00 / 0)
Was that Kerry got such a small bounce and then Bush got a big one. Hopefully, at worst, they are more even this year.
[ Parent ]
And then Bush was terrible in the debates (0.00 / 0)
Which made it close again. Which kinda refutes what Chris said above.
[ Parent ]
Yes, Bush was terrible in the first... (0.00 / 0)
And that made a difference, (but not enough of one).  This probably only happens if someone is "terrible" in the debates.  If both are competent, probably not much change.

The same, btw, happened to Gore, who probably lost the election (or rather, allowed it to get close enough to steal) because of the debates.  I think most people thought he was terrible, or at least extremely arrogant, in the first 2 debates.  The 3rd one (which I actually attended), I think people considered his best, but I don't think it really moved numbers too much (in other words, mostly a draw).

[ Parent ]
Kerry was tacking right into convention (0.00 / 0)
So the 2004 Democratic convention was actually demoralizing to the base.

Hopefully we won't see a repeat.  But given the tack right after clinching, I'm guessing it's gonna be pretty bad.

[ Parent ]
Was that why? (0.00 / 0)
I thought it was because they didn't attack enough.
[ Parent ]
Yes... this is it... (0.00 / 0)
Democrats were cowed into making their convention completely Bush free after the Republicans accused them of just being "anti-Bush" and "not standing for anything themselves."  So, Kerry made the convention all about him with nary a mention of Bush.

Then what was the RNC?  A huge Kerry bash-fest.  Zell Miller said Kerry would throw spitballs at terrorists, they handed out fake purple-hearts to belittle Kerry's service, and the rest is history.

[ Parent ]
Colorado poll coming later from Rasmussen (0.00 / 0)
Also Minnesota and senate numbers for both.
Colorado poll is big (0.00 / 0)
I'll be waiting for that one intently.
[ Parent ]
Indeed (0.00 / 0)
But don't get too upset if McCain is up. I don't think we get a true picture of the state-by-state picture until after the convention. By the way, are you going to do a House forecast?
[ Parent ]
Conventions (0.00 / 0)
After both I mean.
[ Parent ]
Uh oh... (4.00 / 1)
Numbers are't out yet, but in the Senate numbers, despite Udall actually improving this month Ras says this:

"The presidential election in Colorado this month is a toss-up."

Not a good sign.

[ Parent ]
Debates (4.00 / 2)
Still, The coming VP picks and conventions will be absolutely key--much more important than the debates.

I'm not so sure about that.  Particularly if McCain has a meltdown, and goes all "Dazed and Confused":

He could easily lose the election--or a good 10 points from mere loss to landslide--in single outing.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

Yes, if that happens... (0.00 / 0)
Then it would be good for Obama.  No guarantees of that, though.  I'm guessing both will be fine in the debates, which probably actually benefits Obama slightly anyway... but I highly doubt we'll see a Bush '04 first debate like meltdown.
[ Parent ]
What If Barack Shows Up In A Paris Hilton T-Shirt? (4.00 / 1)
I'd say the odds of a McCain meltdown immediately increase by 200%.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
Meltdown is a virtual lock then... =) n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Debates pose real problems for McCain (4.00 / 1)
I think a lot of McCain town halls have pre-screened participants and questions.  Or he can just wing it because the audience is sympathetic.  But the debates (at least 2 of them) will be more formal with tougher questions.  McCain's prep is chancy if he has any problems with short-term memory (usually the first to go), and they can't wire him up as it was suspected they did with Bush because he may have hearing issues and could get confused. He has to go with what he's got, which isn't all that much, and it will show.  He isn't the ad libber (to say nothing of actor) that Reagan was, so he can't cover up ignorance.  Plus, the Obama people are paying very close attention to what sets McCain off.  If they give him something to keep his temper in check, he will really be dazed and confused.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
Agreed All Around (0.00 / 0)
Except that I think that Bush being wired is pretty much beyond doubt at this point.

I expect that McCain will take a real hit and/or Obama will see a real jump.  It's just possible that McCain will still be around 40-42% and can't go much lower than that, even if he starts drooling on TV.  But in that case, there should be a significant shift of undecideds to Obama.

And that's without a major case meltdown, just the slow drip, drip, drip reality of McCain's overall incapacity.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Question For Chris... (0.00 / 0)
Why don't you show a total that includes the toss ups (excluding tied)?  By my calcs with your charts it's Obama 293 McCain 232.    
You can see that in the "Swing State Overview" section (0.00 / 0)
For instance, in this post, Chris shows that if Obama wins each of the 4 toss-up states where he has any lead at all, he gets to 293.
[ Parent ]
Debates (4.00 / 1)
I think debates are more crucial then the conventions because the debates are usually the last time the public gets to see the candidates on stage and answering questions before they head to the polls. Moreover, there are three debates, whereas with the conventions each candidate only can give one speech.

I wish instead of having a night dedicated to "security" we would have a convention night dedicated to the economy. Poll after poll shows the economy is by far the biggest concern among US citizens.

I do fear that McCain will pick his VP the day after Obama gives his speech. Not much we can do about that though.

Open Left Presidential Forecast, Aguust 14th | 27 comments





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