Its (Probably) Either Biden Or Kaine

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 14:45


Right now, the weight of circumstantial evidence and anonymous scoops indicates that either Joe Biden or Tim Kaine will be selected as Obama's running mate within the next 48 hours. Here is why, starting with a story from today's New York Times (more in the extended entry):
Chris Bowers :: Its (Probably) Either Biden Or Kaine
Going into the final days, Mr. Obama was said to be focused mainly on three candidates: Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware.

This three-person short list is narrowed even further by Steve Clemmons, who claims that Bayh has not been chosen due to opposition from the activist base:

But sources close to Obama report to me that after the "surge of concern" on the net about Evan Bayh, he has not been selected as Obama's VP running mate.

If that is true, and there is good reason to think that it is true, stopping Evan Bayh is probably the only major impact the netroots had on Obama's selection. Well, it is better than nothing.

The circumstantial evidence that points to Biden includes his trip to Georgia, Obama giving him a shout out earlier today for said trip, and a key Biden advisor traveling with Obama to Hawaii. Plus, a lot of wankers think that is is Biden, mainly because they still believe in "balance" picks.

The circumstantial evidence for Kaine includes that he is not yet slotted to speak at the convention, that Obama will be in Virginia tomorrow, that a line of succession meeting has been convened in Virginia, and that three of the seven candidates Obama vetted for his short list are from Virginia.

From where I sit, the weight of "evidence" favors Kaine, and does so by a good long way. Then again, Virginia Dems have been pushing so improbably hard to score a VP, that they will look awfully foolish if it ends up being Biden.

Kaine's positives are that he is from Virginia, worked as an urban housing rights lawyer, speaks Spanish, was an extremely early Obama supporter, and opposed the war from the start. His negatives are that he has governed ineffectively, has not been strong on messaging (even on Iraq), and seems pretty right-wing.

Biden's strengths are that he is familiar with the national media, has recent Georgia cred, is an excellent debater, is a tough attack dog, won't become the Democratic favorite in the next presidential nomination campaign, and is generally in the middle of the Democratic Party. His negatives are that he supported the war from the start, muddles the change message because he has been in the Senate for 36 years, is often known as representing MBNA instead of Delaware, including his support for the bankruptcy bill.

I don't think it is an entirely clear choice. Biden would almost certainly be a better campaigner and a better president, but Kaine is far more a reinforcing pick than Biden. I have been pushing the reinforcing idea since the start of the year, so it is hard to turn away now.

Update: I seem to have screwed up the poll. Oh well. Sorry about that.    

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Its (Probably) Either Biden Or Kaine | 64 comments
Biden (4.00 / 2)
Obama's campaign currently lacks an effective attacker.  

Also, isn't Kaine bad on environmental issues?

John McCain won't insure children

Biden got FISA right (4.00 / 12)
Since we threw a (justified) fit over FISA, it's worth pointing out that Biden voted against the new FISA law.

That scores a lot of points in my book.

[ Parent ]
I would prefer Biden over Kaine (4.00 / 4)
But agree with Matt. It looks more like it will be Kaine. The big VA event tomorrow fits the supposed announcement timeline.

I noticed the Obama campaign just posted a Kaine video on their YouTube page. May or may not mean anything but it does appear they are gearing up for a take VA in the general with Kaine as VP.  

[ Parent ]
Chris (4.00 / 1)
Sorry, I meant, I agree with Chris.
[ Parent ]
Nice catch of the clip on the website n/t (4.00 / 2)

[ Parent ]
Biden for Secretary of State (4.00 / 2)
The reason I like Kaine is because he keeps with the Obama theme of change. Biden's been in the senate too long, and had his own unsuccessful runs for president. Bayh is just blah.  
[ Parent ]
Biden now saying it's not him. (0.00 / 0)
Via Huffpost.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
Neither (4.00 / 7)
Deciding between an inexperienced nobody or an over-experienced jerk? I'm still holding out for a last minute surprise.

Too bad Hillary said ten thousand nasty things about Obama on camera during the primary - I have honestly come around to her as being a great option in this field of lackluster candidates.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

Put me on the list (4.00 / 5)
Of people who would actually prefer Clinton over either of the specific options of Biden or Kaine (or for that matter Bayh). I don't think five months ago I would have ever expected myself saying that, but then, among other things five months ago I wouldn't have expected our apparent VP choices would look like they do.

You know, all things considered, we actually had a pretty stellar lineup of candidates for Presidential nominee this year, from the progressive point of view. How did the VP shortlist wind up looking like this?

[ Parent ]
I'd prefer Biden (4.00 / 19)
I don't know much about Kaine's skills but I have trouble believing that he could speak on/debate/launch attacks on both foreign policy and economy with Biden's authority. I think there's a chance that Biden could help to create the anti-McCain narrative that Obama desperately needs.

Plus Biden seems to be more progressive (less conservative) than Kaine. In fact, there are signs that Biden is moving left; for example, he opposed the Peru Trade Deal. In any case, as you say Chris, he's not the future of the party; but if Kaine is picked, a centrist anti-labor, anti-environment anti-choice-ish plutocrat becomes the future of the party, Obama's heir apparent.

I'll take a tired moderate liberal over a fresh centrist.

Amen...n/m (4.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
Biden is popular with older voters (4.00 / 3)
Especially the C-SPAN types.  He could solidify a state like PA that has an older electorate.  In this sense he is a reassuring pick, which is one thing Obama needs.  He is also a good attack dog, which would make the race more interesting to many people (press, those here who love confrontational politics).  Imagine the equivcalent of "a noun, a verb and 9/11" against McCain.  I think he is the one Dem who has the chops to really confront McCain on his BS.  And he is on Judiciary and knowledgeable and good on most of those issues.  If they win, Dodd is head of Foreign Relations, which would portend some sanity.  I like it better than Kaine.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
Biden is from Scranton. (0.00 / 0)
Which wouldn't hurt.
[ Parent ]
attack dog (4.00 / 8)
if those are the only choices, then my preference is
for an attack dog, which means Biden.

somebody's got to do it.

Sic 'Em, Boy (4.00 / 1)
I realize the attack dog idea exists and is popular. But let's think about the last few winners of these contests. Was Cheney an attack dog? Nope. He was mostly silent? Was Gore an attack dog for Bill Clinton? No again. Was Dan Quayle an attack dog? Again, no.

From where does this idea that the veep candidate has to be an attack dog come?

[ Parent ]
Cheney's not an attack dog!? (4.00 / 4)
I always assumed that was who everyone pictured when they thought about attack dog VP's. Cheney sticks to the party line and never compromises conservative ideals. He says what the fuck he wants, truth and decency be damned. I wouldn't mind a progressive version that stayed closer to the truth. I want an unapologetic progressive to stay on message and attack. Howard Dean has actually been awesome at that heading the DNC.
[ Parent ]
He Does Open His Mouth (0.00 / 0)
He does say whatever the fuck he wants. I guess I just have no memory of him denigrating another candidate. Maybe my memory is just fuzzy in that area.

At any rate, if you want a guy who will open his mouth and say the first thing that pops into his head, Joe Biden is your man. It's his best and worst trait as a politician.

"The Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man?"
"I couldn't help it. It just popped in there."

Joe Biden is Ray Stantz

[ Parent ]
In 2006 he was definitely an attack dog (4.00 / 2)
Basically accusing Ned Lamont's supporters of giving aide and comfort to "the Al Qaeda types".  

"I think the economic logic behind dumping a load of toxic waste in the lowest wage country is impeccable and we should face up to that."
-Lawrence Summers
[ Parent ]
No--Bob Dole in 1976 (0.00 / 0)
He was the prototype--and Nixon in 1952/1956.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
Um (0.00 / 0)
you've included a what now?

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.
I think he's saying post a comment with which of those two options you'd prefer. (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Biden. (4.00 / 6)
Kaine can't cut it. Wrong on to many issues, uninspiring, not as popular in VA as he's been made out to be, and the Lt. Gov. is a hard right GOP hack.

Let's just hope that Biden can cut down McCain like he did Giuliani

Biden (4.00 / 4)
If Biden is VP that moves Chris Dodd up to chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations

Attack dog?  Watch this short clip - makes me laugh everytime



When he gets going he can get very 'average American' with his facial expressions n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
And I think that's a good thing ;) (4.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
I love that clip (4.00 / 2)
Can't you imagine him using the same delivery and making the same face at the end while saying:

"Look, John McCain says that he's more trustworthy on foreign policy than Barack Obama, but he has agreed with George Bush on every major foreign policy decision during the last eight years, and we all know that the Bush presidency has been a complete disaster that has cost us thousands of lives, billions of dollars, and made us no less safe."


John McCain: Health insurance for low income children represents an "unfunded liability."

[ Parent ]
Kaine, but why is Warner not interested? (4.00 / 4)
Message consistency is paramount.  He represents change and he opposed the war from the start.  That's all you need to know.  

But I'm curious why Warner would accept the keynote slot but not the VP slot.  The keynote slot is clearly a grooming position for the next cycle's presidential front runner.  This would suggest that he has some interest in being President at some point in the future.  Now, if that is the case, why would he think that Keynote+Senate for 4 or 8 years would put him in a stronger position than VP or failed VP candidate?  It's pretty clear that VP is a much stronger springboard to the Presidency than Senator.  So why would he take himself out of the Veepstakes????

It is a certain Senate seat. (4.00 / 3)
That is hard to give up, especially for someone who decided last year he didn't want to run for president.  
[ Parent ]
Simple (4.00 / 1)
"It's pretty clear that VP is a much stronger springboard to the Presidency than Senator."

This just isn't true.

If he goes on the ticket and Obama loses, he is out of a job and has the stink of being on a losing ticket.  This is far worse than being in the senate.  Unless he is going to primary Webb or Kaine (not going to happen), he would be off the radar until at least 2014.  That's a career threatening eventuality.

If he goes on the ticket and Obama wins, he becomes a frontrunner for the nomination in 2016.  However, he would also be a frontrunner coming from eight years in the senate.  There might be a small advantage to being VP, but in any case 2016 will be a tough year for a democratic candidate under this scenario as it is rare that any party wins a third consecutive term due to the cyclical nature of American politics.

On balance, the smart move is to take the senate seat and its not close.

John McCain: Health insurance for low income children represents an "unfunded liability."

[ Parent ]
Biden. (4.00 / 2)
Though I'm holding out a hope that all of these conspicuous clues pointing to Virginia actually are pointing to Mark Warner. (Yeah, Obama's scheduled to be in Virginia tomorrow... for two events... with Warner and Webb. Kaine isn't on any schedule I'm aware of.)
Kaine (4.00 / 1)
A worthy foreign policy expert shouldn't have blown it on Iraq.

Not that I'm a fan of Kaine...

Kaine (4.00 / 2)
I say so strictly for electability reasons.  I'm simply guessing that Kaine's "reinforceability" will work best in the end. (On the merits, I agree that Biden would be a better VP.)

By the way, even though I've predicting to friends that Kaine will be the one, I'm still not convinced that ANY of these reports accurately tell us who's on the latest short list.

If they have polls.... (4.00 / 1)
showing the Kaine would kick Virginia to solid Obama then I would definitely go for it. McCain has no real path to 270 without Virginia. You could just sit Kaine in Virginia with Mark Warner and Jim Webb until election day. He could also stop down here in NC. I do think Biden would be a better VP and potential president, though.  
[ Parent ]
MBNA would love Biden (4.00 / 1)
But that's more love than any other VP short-listers are getting.

I really wish he'd pick somebody that no one is talking about, just to shake things up. I don't even care if it's a good pick, I just want something outside the little tiny CW box.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

Agreed (4.00 / 2)
And since all these rumors seem to be based on nothing but thin air, I think he very well might do so.
[ Parent ]
for some reason I feel it may be neither (4.00 / 1)
probably just hope. Still have a sense it could be Warner or some other surprise.
29 minute BO youtube video of Kaine (4.00 / 2)
just showed up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Of course, this could just be for Virginia, which is what it says.

Also, note that the story that BO cameramen were following Kaine is now explaned by this video without any need for VP material.



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

this guy is Ambien (4.00 / 3)
he reminds me of some boring college professor lecturing a class of 400 - or some marketing tool from a startup at an e-commerce convention. Good good, its the revenge of Dukakis. Please god don't let Obama select the short boring twerp option.

I hate Joe for his Credit Card bankruptcy legacy, but at least he has some fire and personality, and is a hell of a compelling speaker when it comes to foreign policy. Go Biden! (if these are our choices).

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

[ Parent ]
Jamming Obama (4.00 / 5)
if taking his VP preference off the table is the best we can do, I'll take it. its not easy to have enough power to stop a bad decision, much less encourage a good one. leftist activists should be proud of their power and persistence if Bayh is actually passed up.

for me we would have a much better government if we could just stop most of the crap our reps pull on us. im pretty satisfied just by jamming the system.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

let me add (4.00 / 3)
don't y'all find it completely intoxicating to imagine the rejection phone call too!

ring ring

"YES! echm.. Hello?"

"Hey Blah, how you doing? psyched up for the convention."

"Bayh. Yeah Big O! Can't wait buddy!"

"Listen Blah..."

"Bayh"

"right... listen Even, I got some bad news here, but I wanted to tell you myself. Axelrose was going to call you, but we've been making some big plans you and I lately and I thought it best for me to call you on this."

"Right! You bet! Lay it on me, wha'dge ya need?"

"Blah, you're not going to be VP."

"Bayh. Sorry, what was that?"

"I'm sorry, but we've had to drop you from VP Blah."

"...."

"I know this is hard. We made all those plans, and we're still going to have you burn'n up I-65 for 10 more weeks. You'll still get to shuck a lot of corn. But I'm afraid you ain't going to be VP."

"But?"

"I know. I'm really sorry."

"So, buhbla gurbbble, who, why, um I thought..."

"I know Blah."

"Bayh"

"We're going with Joe instead. Sorry, had to, last minute decision. The lefty radicals thought you were a tool, you know? Not good for the brand and all. We had to agree. That's just how it goes some times."

"Blublblubblubblbublubbblub."

"I'll see you in Denver in a few days. k? thanks bye"

"ka buh ayah bye Bayh. Bayh. Bayh."

- click -

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

[ Parent ]
Obama rally in Illinois on Saturday (0.00 / 0)
Naturally leadng to speculation that the VP will be with him.  That would be consistent with the idea that he is not in Virginia for Kaine a VP.

http://www.swamppolitics.com/n...

This is fun.  


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

could it still be Sebelius? (4.00 / 5)
Of course, this can't be verified, but if true, this is pretty good circumstantial evidence

I'm not getting my hopes up, but I would be so psyched if this turns out to be his pick.

Arrgh, now you're getting my hopes up :( (4.00 / 3)

[ Parent ]
Woo hoo! (4.00 / 2)
I think...   Of course I have no idea if this means anything.

Although I would prefer Sherrod Brown, I think Sebelius would be much better than either Biden or Kaine. Of course a flaming paper bag filled with dog shit would be better than Bayh.

miasmo.com

[ Parent ]
Oh Please, Please, PLEASE!!! (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
I've been saying... (0.00 / 0)
I've been standing by my pick of Sebelius for a few weeks now. As evidence, I offer that her name has (until this little tidbit) completely dropped off the radar for the last month. Obama's team knows the only way they can keep a secret is to placate the press with a series of names which are plausible, but wrong. Thus the leaks which always feature other names. Obama wants this to be a surprise, and it will be (I hope)...

Obama-Sebelius '08!

[ Parent ]
Biden (0.00 / 0)
Hey remember that Biden might be the second most important Syracuse University graduate from Scranton, PA behind Gerry McNamara!
Are we wrong about the "reinforcing" pick? (4.00 / 1)
Polling this is probably pretty difficult, as people probably don't really know what they want (or rather, they think they want one thing, but when it actually comes down to it, that thing isn't as effective in terms of persuading their votes).

Rasmussen did a poll on what people wanted from the candidate's VPs... I'm having trouble finding it right now, but I think the overwhelming response was that Obama should pick someone with FP credentials and that McCain should pick someone with Economic credentials.  In other words, voters wanted the VPs to be someone that could shore up the perceived deficits of the candidate.

The question, of course, is whether doing what people supposedly want here would actually help, or if it would just muddle the message of the ticket.  

Biden (4.00 / 8)
Take away his votes on the financial services industry and he would be among the 10 most liberal members of the Senate.  And you have to give him a pass on financial services legislation as the Senator from Delaware.  You could certainly argue that he could stand up to those interests, but then he wouldn't be the Senator from Delaware for very much longer after that.

Jon Chait had a very good piece explaining this in the LA Times a couple years ago:
http://www.commondreams.org/vi...

As veep, Joe Biden could just be Joe Biden, and I have no problem with that whatsoever because that's when he is at his best.  Anyone who calls him a loose cannon with a big mouth is not paying very close attention.  He may indeed prattle on, and he may be un-PC at times, but he is rarely ever wrong.

Yes, I know.  Iraq.

Biden fought very hard to limit the president's authority on the AUMF, and when it became apparent he wouldn't succeed, it was time to go along to get along.  That's not being a wanker.  That's being pragmatic.  It's what Senators do (again, see the Chait piece).  His cred on the Middle East is genuine.  He was for a three-way partition of Iraq back when Clinton was still president, and no one has yet convinced me that would be a bad outcome from the situation as it stands now.

It Should Be Christopher Walken (4.00 / 2)
You want tough-guy FP cred?  What says it better than "Weapon of Choice?"


"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
And he dances too! (4.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
Biden (4.00 / 2)
Kaine is basically a nobody. Biden is preferable for all the reasons that have been articulated. He's almost exactly as liberal as Obama, which means more so than Kaine. Moreover, he would be able to take McCain down a notch just by being on the ticket. McCain's condescension toward the newby would be psychologically damaged. Biden would also be a reassuring choice for voters past a certain age who are comfortable with names like "McCain" and "Biden" but have only recently heard of "Obama" and are unnerved.

So: Biden, better than any other possibility, would help Obama win the election. And better than any other possibility, he would help Obama govern.

Josh Marshall is right. It should be Biden.

Good analysis. (4.00 / 1)
Kinda a Sophie's choice in reverse where both of the kids are juvenile delinquents.

Biden undercuts the Iraq argument. So I have to go with Kaine. Sigh.

John McCain doesn't care about Vets.


Wrong (0.00 / 0)
You are wrong Chris, the pick is going to be sebelius.
It is Biden based on process of elimination. (0.00 / 0)
Tim Kaine may or may not deliver Virginia (13ev) to Obama but he lacks foriegn policy experience and Pro-Choice Women's Rights Groups would be unhappy with the selection.

Evan Bayh may or may not deliver Indiana(11ev) to Obama but he is a lackluster candidate. The liberal grassroots wing of the party has problems with Bayh due to his association with the DLC wing of the Democratic Party.

That brings us Joe Biden- Biden has foriegn policy experience. He has been in the US Senate for more than 35 years. He is the current Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and former Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. He is Catholic grew up in Scranton PA- which is Bob Casey territory. He appeals to the blue collar working class voter. He is good on Televison- very articulate in the Sunday Talk Show debates.  

Biden - No Contest (0.00 / 0)
But, having said that, I've got a question of my own:  Am I the only one who's so completely lost enthusiasm for Obama that I don't much care what he does any more?  

I'm from downstate Illinois, and I was an enthusiastic Obama supporter when he ran for the Senate and have been mostly proud of the way he's represented Illinois there (until recently).  

I didn't support him in the presidential primary until Edwards dropped out, and even then my support was more anti Hillary/DLC than pro Obama.  Living in his state, I've watched his rise, and I still think he has a great potential.  But I've always thought that he needed more time to mature.  I still think so, and I'd say that recent events have reinforced that judgment.

I'm just so burned out by one disappointment after another from the Obama camp that I've reached a point where just about the only reason I'm supporting him is because the alternative is unthinkable.  

I still have some hope that some good things could happen in an Obama presidency, but when he sends me a letter (as my senator) talking about the War on Terror, it takes the wind out of my sails.  

"Ignorance is the most dangerous element in any society." - Emma Goldman

Obama presidency (4.00 / 1)
I expect some good things to come out of the Obama administration:

- aggressive environmental policy
- reality-based foreign policy
- New Deal-type programs to lift up the economy
- net neutrality
- restoration of the CSPC
- restoration of the EPA
- restoration of any number of the other government agencies Bush has destroyed

Some things will not improve:

- government spying will probably not be curtailed, though it will be conducted legally
- further erosion of civil rights
- the "Drug War" will continue
- defense budget will continue to swell
- more bricks will be removed from the wall between church and state
- Republicans will continue to obstruct to roadblock anything that they think liberals like and there will be more 'compromises' to appease Cokie Roberts and her ilk

No idea what will happen with healthcare; I'm not convinced there can be real improvement as long as insurance companies have a seat at the table and there's any element of profit in the equation.

I would prefer Biden as well. Kaine is not even remotely liberal. Biden is good on any number of issues that are important to progressives, and he actually has a brain.

Should've had an anti-Kaine petition too.

[ Parent ]
Re: Obama Presidency (0.00 / 0)
Most excellent summary.  I think you covered all the things I really care about.  It's the civil liberties stuff on your won't improve list that have discouraged me about Obama the most.  (spying, drug war, church/state)

"Ignorance is the most dangerous element in any society." - Emma Goldman
[ Parent ]
Someone Obama Trusts (0.00 / 0)
Ambinder points out that Obama has gotten advise from both Kerry and his wife to pick someone he trusts right now and not to assume the trust will build over time.  That sounds like advise worth taking.  According to Marc:

He trusts Gov. Sebelius. He trusts Gov. Kaine. He trusts Sen. Jack Reed.

Given those three .. (0.00 / 0)
i'll take Sebelius or Reed .. except RI has a Republican Gov. .. I wonder he'd dare appoint a Republican to the Senate(unless it is Chafee)
[ Parent ]
Biden's attack on McCain. (0.00 / 0)
Three things in a McCain sentence.
A noun,A Verb and The Surge.
Its (Probably) Either Biden Or Kaine | 64 comments
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