Vice-President: Bayh Re-emerges (Updated)

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 14:33


Obama has booked two major Vice-Presidential events for Saturday. The first will take place in Springfield, Illinois, were Obama launched his Presidential campaign last February.

The Chicago Sun-Times has learned that the Obama team, in the run-up to the Democratic convention, will showcase the new Obama ticket Saturday in Springfield at the Old State Capitol, where presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) officially kicked off his campaign in February, 2007.

The second will be held later that same day in, gasp, Indianapolis, Indiana:

NashvillePost.com has learned that senior campaign officials from the Barack Obama Presidential campaign are being dispatched from various locations around the country and are converging in Indianapolis for a "major event" to take place on Saturday.

Saturday is the same day that Obama is expected to make his first public appearance with his yet to be announced vice presidential running mate. Indiana is the home state of Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, widely considered to be on the short list of Democratic vice presidential contenders.

Kind of hard to figure out why Obama would book two major events on Saturday, including one in Indiana, if he wasn't announcing Indiana Senator Evan Bayh as his Vice-Presidential pick that same day.

Evan Bayh is the third-most conservative Democrat in the U.S. Senate, according to progressive punch. Along with Joe Lieberman, he was one of the two Democrats singled out by Bush for their work in putting together the authorization for the use of military force in Iraq. Over the last four years, he has been both chair of the DLC and honorary co-chair for the committee to liberate Iraq, along with McCain. And, let's face it, he only holds his seat because his father was a Senator.

Basically, Evan Bayh is an insider, conservative tool of the status quo. Outside of Chuck Hagel, it is hard to imagine a worse pick. Ugh.

Update: As a commenter points out, Bayh as VP means that a Republican will take his seat in the U.S. Senate, since Indiana has a Republican Governor. Awesome.

Update 2: An Obama aide denies the story.  Different camps seem to be spinning like crazy right now.  

Chris Bowers :: Vice-President: Bayh Re-emerges (Updated)

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Vice-President: Bayh Re-emerges (Updated) | 65 comments
Disagree! (2.67 / 3)
Hagel would be a better pick.  We wouldn't lose a Senate seat.
Obama is following Micheal Moore's (4.00 / 3)
advice:

http://www.rollingstone.com/po...

How The Democrats Can Blow It ...In Six Easy Steps
A blueprint for losing the most winnable presidential election in American history
MICHAEL MOORE

snip

Just follow each of these steps and you, the Democratic Party establishment, can help elect John Sidney McCain III to a four-year extension of the Bush Era.

snip

2. Pick a running mate who is a conservative white guy or a general or a Republican.
Yes, it will seem like smart politics at first. Shore up Obama's lack of military experience with a hawk. Be true to Obama's message that he'll be a president for everybody by having him run with a Republican. Make a pitch to the purple states of Virginia and Indiana by putting one of their own on the ticket. Or make the red state of Ohio happy by handing the vice presidential slot to its governor. Just so long as Obama's running mate screams "same old, same old," making it harder for him to attract the new voters he needs to win.


[ Parent ]
If (0.00 / 0)
the Indiana report is true, then that definitely points toward Bayh.  But why should we believe that report to be true and not just another piece of misinformation?

John McCain: Health insurance for low income children represents an "unfunded liability."
Or why can't it just be part of (0.00 / 0)
A swing state tour with his new VP?  With Bayh in Indiana, McCaskill in Missouri etc.?   My impression was that the person would be announced Friday, then Springfield was the first stop on a swing state tour that ends up in Denver.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
well, good-night and good luck (4.00 / 5)
I will vote for Obama and whoever he picks, of course. But my Obama yard sign would go in the trash with Bayh as VP.  
it's 2000 all over again. (4.00 / 2)

Or is it 1988 or 2004? (4.00 / 3)
This is something like the thirtieth bad-news day in a row. We seem to be making our "usual mistake," as Walt Whitman would say.
[ Parent ]
Hey, look (4.00 / 3)
It's Ralph Nader, smiling ear to ear.

In truth, the "favorite" keeps switching--from Biden to Kaine to Bayh--in 24 hours, so I'm gonna hold my scream for now.

I will not freak out.
I will not freak out.
I will not freak out.
I will not freak out.
I will not freak out.

David, check this out. (4.00 / 2)
http://www.rollingstone.com/po...

Funny and correct.

The problem is the Obama campaign is playing games about VP (all boring names) while McCain kicks the crap out of him.

Chris B was right: we have a real messaging problem.  

[ Parent ]
Or it's yet another diversion (4.00 / 2)
Increasingly, I've had the feeling that the campaign is just playing with everyone, sending out all sorts of misdirection.

And I suspect they're enjoying it.

And blowing a chance to (4.00 / 2)
define McCain, and sliding in the pols, while they are so, so cute about VP.
[ Parent ]
Or it's yet another diversion (0.00 / 0)
I agree about the misdirections...fits nicely with an intellectually structured campaign such as we saw in the primary season.  But I sure h0pe the VP is not Evan Bayh because he brings nothing but conservative 'values' to the ticket.
[ Parent ]
already been denied by the Obama campaign (4.00 / 2)
As a note... (0.00 / 0)
I know I posted the quick-hit, but Ben Smith says that an Obama aide is "denying" it.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

So, that's either just the standard denial to try and put the cat back in the box, or perhaps it's not true.

About the update (4.00 / 2)
"Update: As a commenter points out, Bayh as VP means that a Republican will take his seat in the U.S. Senate, since Indiana has a Republican Governor. Awesome."

I HOPE that if Bayh is chosen the GOP gains a Senator.  Otherwise, it means McCain won the election.  

well, any scenario where Obama wins with Bayh (4.00 / 3)
is also a scenario where Obama could have won with someone else without costing Dems a senate seat.
[ Parent ]
We could hold it (0.00 / 0)
If our candidate can pull out a victory in November, for the Governorship, that is, then she could fill that vacancy with a Democrat. Right now the figures don't look so good, as per SwingStateProject below, but hey, an Obama-Bayh ticket might do right well in Indiana, and carry Jill Long Thompson across the finish line.

IN-Gov: Daniels Up Big in New SUSA Poll (+)
by: James L.
Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 2:38 PM EDT
SurveyUSA (8/16-18, likely voters, 6/21-23 in parens):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 38 (45)
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 52 (50)
Andy Horning (L): 3 (-)
Christopher Stried (I): 3 (-)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

[ Parent ]
Or Not (4.00 / 1)
Indiana is also a key state for Obama's electoral strategy. For all we know, Obama and the VP could be travelling around and hitting 5 or more swing states over the weekend.

I really doubt Obama will pick Bayh. Leaks to the media from team Obama have been notoriously unreliable throughout the campaign. Remember when Obama was rumored to have barely outraised McCain's $22 million in June, when in fact he raised $55 million? I am fairly confident these "leaks" from Obama insiders are deliberately released to confuse the media and downplay expectations.

or it means that the Obama campaign (4.00 / 3)
is doing another fake out, while planning on a campaign stop in Indiana because the Veep is not from a swing state, and may help shore up Obama support in Indiana, which he's still targeting.

So, it could be Bayh.

or it could be Sebelius, as Obama wouldn't contend in KS anyway.

or it could be Richardson.  New Mexico is pretty likely to go blue already.

Or Biden.  

Or some other dude.

Indianapolis is a couple of hours away by bus, and it's a swing state.  

If he was trucking off to St. Louis the next day, would you assume it's McCaskill?

By Bus? (4.00 / 2)
How about less than an hour by plane. They could easily hold events in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio all on the same day, if they really wanted to.
[ Parent ]
Agree with you and Jerry on all points (4.00 / 1)
If we want to go down this particular road though there is just as much chance that he has picked Hillary since the main event is in Illinois where she was born and raised.
[ Parent ]
The Senate seat doesn't matter (4.00 / 2)
If he picks Bayh, it's a clear sign that he has no plans to actually be President, so having a workable majority is less important.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.
Ummm... (4.00 / 4)
Hasn't the "obvious" VP choice changed something like 400 times in the last 4 weeks? I'd just relax for the next 48 hours. This could not more clearly be a concerted effort to drive the media into a frenzy. Don't let them get to you, too.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
Worth it? (4.00 / 3)
There seems to be an assumption that if Obama was never really considering Bayh, then the pushback on this is wasted energy.

Not so.  

The Village wields its power by attacking trial balloons, real or not.  One of the reasons why someone like Sherrod Brown can't even be floated is because of the freakout that would come from the Village.  Keeping such things from even being mentioned is power.  Regardless of what's going on in the search, the grassroots pushback sends a little message to the party.  There are limits to what we will put up with without complaining.  

That is a good thing.

There are plenty of elements of the Republican party that do this sort of thing all the time.  It hasn't hurt them, and it won't hurt the Democrats.  In politics, voice is pretty much the only tool regular people have for wielding power.  Give it up, and you have nothing left.  

Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity.

Well... (4.00 / 2)
while I'm inclined to agree, if the end result of Bayh pushback is that they instead pick Tim Kaine-- in many ways not much better-- it will seem like at best only a very formal victory.

If Obama's VP pick is Sebelius or somebody, this will feel like a real victory for the netroots and a real repudiation of the CW machine that spent weeks chanting the names of Kaine/Bayh/Biden. But if in the end we can shoot down one trial balloon, but they have lots trial balloons more to replace it, then... what? You're right, it will be encouraging we can shoot trial balloons down at all now, and that will indicate the next fight may go better. But in the near term it's not really gonna seem like we're doing much.

[ Parent ]
Agreed (n/t) (0.00 / 0)


Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity.
[ Parent ]
Kaine is at least an order of magnitude better than Bayh (4.00 / 1)
Kaine actually has some positives. The best Bayh has are well-maybe-not-quite-so-negatives-if-you're-inclined-to-be-optimistic.

I hope it's not Kaine either, though.

[ Parent ]
What about a Lugar endorsement? (4.00 / 1)

He's launching a battleground state tour (4.00 / 4)
Starting right after the Springfield speech and running through to the start of the DNC.

http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/2...

Campaign news release as reported at thecapitolfaxblog.com:

UPDATED: OBAMA CAMPAIGN ANNOUNCES BATTLEGROUND STATE TOUR LEADING UP TO DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION

Obama kicks off tour at site of campaign announcement in Springfield, Illinois

Note deadline for credentials: 5 p.m. CST today

Chicago, IL - Senator Barack Obama will kick off his trip to the Democratic National Convention on Saturday, August 23, 2008 with an event at the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois, where Obama officially announced his campaign for president on February 10, 2007....


That's all this is... (4.00 / 3)
First stop on a tour of battle ground states.  I imagine we'll be seeing more advance work being done in Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico etc, all leading up to Denver.

Indiana is the closest battleground to Illinois, that's all.  It's a mistake to read so much into this stuff.

[ Parent ]
Didn't the Obama campaign say yesterday (0.00 / 0)
That the Illinois rally is where Obama's "journey to the national convention" will begin, or something? I guess that's what they meant then. Hm.
[ Parent ]
Obama-Tapioca '08! Feel the Excitement! (4.00 / 2)
Outside of Chuck Hagel, it is hard to imagine a worse pick.

Sam Nunn? But still...

Great. The upside is we get Bayh a heartbeat away and heir apparent front-runner in '16. The downside, which Bayh would make more likely, is the death of the Constitution and our republic for the rest of my lifetime...

At this point I'm seriously hoping for a Clinton surprise.  If it's Bayh, just shoot me now -- I'm not sure my health can survive the next 2-1/2 months...

Self-refuting Christine O'Donnell is proof monkeys are still evolving into humans

We're All Being Played (0.00 / 0)
Seriously, no one should trust the leaks coming "out of the Obama camp"; remember how airtight that ship was during the primaries?  What makes us think that's changed?  Any "leaks" are either misinformation OR, more likely, people trying to keep their reputation as "inside sources" with reporters.

I honestly have no idea who he's gonna pick.  The suspense is killing me!  I wish it were being announced today...

I think you're right, I hope you're right (4.00 / 1)
Any "leaks" are either misinformation OR, more likely, people trying to keep their reputation as "inside sources" with reporters.

Or perhaps reporters taking people who are sources in conventional Democratic circles but not necessarily sources in the Obama campaign, and elevating them to the position of "inside sources"-- just so the reporters can keep up the appearance that they have inside sources...

[ Parent ]
Are they leaking? (4.00 / 2)
Or is everyone parsing every schedule and bit of advance work they hear about for clues as to who it is?  The frenzy seems to me to be on the side of the media and blogs.  The campaign is just trying to keep it quiet and to keep to whatever schedule they devised for the rollout of the VP pick.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
Yeah (4.00 / 1)
I've thought that before, forgot to include it in my comment.  We're looking for patterns where there might not be any.  It's a very human thing.  I forget the term off the top of my head for "seeing patterns where none exist", but I think that's a big part of the frenzy.

Also, we're really impatient creatures.  I wanna know now!!!

[ Parent ]
And Hillary wouldn't be better than Bayh? (0.00 / 0)


"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller
Hillary would be better than Bye-Bayh (4.00 / 2)
By a long shot, I hope for better than HRC though. I would 't mind HRC, I hope for a woman, but I don't see one one... Boxer? Better for the ticket not better as a strong politician.

HRC is much better than many candidates Deb, and we should be pushing women. I for example hope that Obama's cabinet approaches 50% women. Carter says putting these two together on a ticket doesn't build on both strengths but combines their weaknesses with voters, people who wont vote for Obama, are different from those that wont vote for Clinton, and will energize the Rethuglican base.


--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky

[ Parent ]
Look at his key staff (0.00 / 0)
for the first 15 months of his campaign there were no key women in place.

50%????  will not get close

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller

[ Parent ]
Susan Rice and Samantha Power? (4.00 / 1)
How could you forget?
[ Parent ]
But Hillary outpolls Obama (0.00 / 0)
It's also worth noting that while Obama leads McCain by three points in the poll, Clinton edges the Republican by six points in a hypothetical match up, 49 to 43 percent. (Wall Street Journal)

So I guess that shoots that theory to hell.

[ Parent ]
Correcting some misinformation (4.00 / 1)
A Bayh VP pick would not necessarily result in a Republican appointing Bayh's replacement.  Bayh wouldn't have to resign his seat until January 19th, at which point Indiana might well have a Democratic governor (the new governor takes office on January 10).  Indiana is currently locked in a highly competitive gubernatorial race between "My Man Mitch" Daniels and former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson.  Daniels has been considered the slight favorite until now, but having Bayh on the national ticket could easily improve Democratic turnout in the state enough to hand Long Thompson the victory.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
Highly Competitive? (0.00 / 0)
SurveyUSA poll has Daniels with a 14 point lead. And, worse, he's over the magic 50 number.

He also has a huge cash edge.

You can't quite put a fork in her yet, and Bayh would definitely help her, but she has a steep uphill climb.

[ Parent ]
a little bit of history: (4.00 / 1)
New York Times, 2000:

With just hours to go until his self-imposed deadline of noon on Tuesday, Vice President Al Gore huddled with close aides and family members tonight to make his decision on a vice presidential running mate.

Speculation continued to center on four Democrats in the Senate -- John Kerry of Massachusetts, John Edwards of North Carolina, Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut and Evan Bayh of Indiana -- although Mr. Gore raised the possibility last week that he might pick a ''wild card.''

New York Times, 2004:

As Senator John Kerry takes a closer look at potential running mates for the Democratic ticket, he will find that the four senators he is considering have one thing in common: Like him, they are millionaires.

According to financial disclosures filed by the Senate on Monday, the four, John Edwards, Bob Graham, Evan Bayh and Bill Nelson, all listed assets in the multiple millions for themselves and their families.

And now the New York Times, 2008:

Going into the final days, Mr. Obama was said to be focused mainly on three candidates: Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware.

The Bayh buzz sounds like a familiar tune. But I'm sure that this time, Bayh will actually get picked, instead of just being the bland white guy the pundits love to put on their short list for the third time in a row.

Of course... (0.00 / 0)
You'll notice that the final pick was always one of the final ones mentioned... So the chances that it's a "dark horse" or some kind of surprise are probably limited... Meaning, it's probably Bayh, Biden, or Kaine (with the longest odds going to Sebelius).
[ Parent ]
Wild card is thought to be 20% in soem guessing circles. (0.00 / 0)
What does wear to a guessing circle?

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky
[ Parent ]
This is getting out of hand (4.00 / 2)
During a week when Obama needs to grab the momentum and the media coverage back by pushing out his own messaging, they're instead getting distracted by this endless VP Kremlinology they're feeding.

Announce a name and be done with it. If they lose a whole week to this it's a friggin' waste.

Not so sure about that (4.00 / 1)
VP coverage means attention focused on Obama, attention focused on Democrats. And it's positive attention, attention that the Democrats drive-- as opposed to, say, attention focused on Obama by McCain's inane ads. And although that attention may consist more of media-insider speculation than any message the Obama camp directly controls, it ultimately helps. Even if people are only looking at Bayh and Kaine that at least raises the profile of two Democrats; and the speculation makes Obama's VP announcement up into a big deal in such a way that whenever that VP is announced, there's going to be enough attention focused on that announcement to make the VP (whoever it is) into a big positive for the Obama campaign.

As much as McCain may complain about this and try to turn it into a negative, the fact that all the interest and excitement in this race is focused around Obama really is a good thing for Obama. Or look at it this way-- over the last 24 hours or so the Republicans tried to break through the mass of Obama VP speculation with an attempt to make people speculate about the Republican VP, with this little mini-drama with Limbaugh and Lieberman. It seems to have received very little attention. Surely stories driven by Obama messaging are better than stories driven by Obama VP speculation. But which is better-- stories driven by Obama VP speculation? Or stories driven by McCain VP speculation?

[ Parent ]
Mark Warner from Indianapolis (4.00 / 1)
At least, his Wikipedia bio says he "grew up in Indianapolis." I'm still hoping that Mark Warner is the one, a twofer helping us a wee bit in both Virginia and Indiana.
I really am starting to think there is hope for Warner as Veep (4.00 / 1)
(and that's a good thing.)

Bayh would suck big time.

[ Parent ]
I was thinking that too (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
hmm... (0.00 / 0)
Well, technically the Vice President is the President of the Senate, so that doesn't automatically cancel him out.

I've gotta give the Obama camp credit where it's due, they've kept a lid on this thing and kept the press guessing like crazy.

Now we need to just pick and focus on crushing McCain. (There's alot of work to be done)

[ Parent ]
He couldn't say anything else, could he? (4.00 / 1)
Unless he wanted to announce him as veep right then and there. So this reveals nothing.
[ Parent ]
Stronger statement... (4.00 / 1)
Here:
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

"An Obama aide, perhaps feeling sorry for the group, stated unequivocally that the report of a planned Indiana trip is untrue."

So, it looks like it's untrue... or the aide actually doesn't know about it.

What? (4.00 / 1)
The Nashville Post is wrong?

I'd expect more from a news organization I never heard of 30 minutes ago.

[ Parent ]
Obama/Bayh = (0.00 / 0)
Bye,Obama?



"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

Nashvillepost? (4.00 / 2)

I didn't even know there was a Nashville Post.

The Tennessean is the big paper down there, and I think the Banner went under several years ago.

Sorry, it could be true, but I'll wait until I hear about it from a real news organization.

It's me (4.00 / 4)
I am Obama's VP pick. He decided to go with a complete surprise. That and I own a really cute dog.
Lab? (0.00 / 0)


--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky
[ Parent ]
Indianapolis? (0.00 / 0)
Birthplace of former VA Governor, Mark Warner...

Speaking of Indiana, why did Tim Roemer's name fall off the list? (an early Obama supporter; has foreign policy cred; solid on education; against NAFTA; would help with midwesterners & Catholics; has bipartisan reputation; not currently serving as an elected...)

Pro-life (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Watch this end up being the lamest promotion ever by a campaign (0.00 / 0)
They have spent tons of energy pumping this VP drama. And yet two of the three alleged leading candidates are complete milquetoast. "Wow - its so exciting to see if they'll really pick someone who doesn't completely suck!"

They have somehow magically turned an easily way to generate excitement into what could be a grand fizzle.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

Even if you're not fond of him (4.00 / 2)
the crack about his Dad is  gratuitous cheap shot. Birch Bayh lost his senate seat narrowly in 1980 (dems lost 13!). Evan won Sec of State in '86, then twice for Governor, then twice for Senate. I think his Dad's coattails may have ended somewhere back then and Evan may have just possibly won on his own merits, and not by Hoosiers being confused that it was his Dad.
I think Chuck Hagel would be a better pick than Evan Bayh (2.00 / 2)
At least it shows a modicum of gutsiness, something they haven't been displaying a lot of recently.
i sincerely hope (0.00 / 0)
this is just more rumor rather then truth, if it is not then obama has stabbed those that supported his run from the beginning with cash and sweat in the back, wonder why the base is afraid barack, it seems your focus is right not left.

i still think the choice will be hilary for a number of reasons, but my days as a dem are numbered, i need left politics to survive and this party has gop nonsense written all over it, good bye america it was nice knowing ya!

Vice-President: Bayh Re-emerges (Updated) | 65 comments
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