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There's a new poll by CNN showing a 47-47 tie between Barack Obama and John McCain. A month ago there was that odd USA Today/Gallup poll showing McCain with a 4-point lead. As Democrats we naturally worry that, well, maybe Obama will join Al Gore and John Kerry in the ranks of "almost" Presidents. So the refrain, Obama please don't suck (catchy tune). But here's the big picture on the Obama-McCain polling. Pollster.com lists 112 polls between the two since Obama captured the Democratic nomination in early June. It breaks down like this: Obama ahead: 101 McCain ahead: 6 Ties: 5 Now you might think all those polls showing McCain ahead or tied are very recent but you'd be wrong. The rare non-leading Obama polls go back all the way to mid-June when an ABC poll showed McCain leading by 1 and a Gallup poll later that month showed a tie. There were several in July like that and a few in August. Folks, when a 101 out of 112 polls show you with a lead, even a narrow "within the margin of error" type lead, you are ahead. We are at the precipice of potential change in the race with the two conventions going back-to-back over the next 11 days but so far, the situation is a major improvement for Democrats compared to 2004 or 2000. Update: An anti-Obama polling theory has been offered that suggests weekend polling hurts him because younger voters are underpolled then. I checked this. There are 16 polls taken mostly on the weekend (2 out of 2 or 2 out of 3 days) and in these Obama averages a 3.3 lead. In 44 polls that include no weekend days he leads by an average of 3.0 points. I don't think weekend polling is the answer but rather the occasional outlying poll you would expect by chance.
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