Tuesday Afternoon Election News

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Aug 14, 2007 at 15:37

Here are some items of note on the electoral scene today:

In the first six months of 2006, Democratic Party Committees outraised Republican Party Committees $111.5 million to $108.8 million. That is a 98% increase for Democrats from 2003, and a 22% decline for Republicans from 2003. Overall, Democratic Committees now have "$50.9 million cash on hand and debts of $11.7 million, and Republican party committees had $31.8 million in cash on hand and debts of $6.4 million."
In IL-14, former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert is retiring, making this lean Republican district (PVI of R +5) a serious pickup opportunity in 2008. There are currently three Democrats in the campaign, "Bill Foster, a scientist and businessman; Jonathan Laesch, who took 40 percent of the vote as the 2006 Democratic nominee against Hastert; and Jotham Stein, a lawyer." Three Republicans are expected to join them:

The Republican field in the Feb. 5 primary election almost certainly will include state Sen. Chris Lauzen; dairy executive Jim Oberweis, who lost Republican primaries for senator in 2002 and 2004 and for governor in 2006; and Geneva mayor Kevin Burns.
Prairie State Blue will be a key local blog for this campaign.
The Oregon Democratic establishment has apparently decided that Jeff Merkley is their man against Gordon Smith, and they are lining up behind him:

Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) and former Governor Barbara Roberts announced yesterday that they would serve as co-chairs for the Senate campaign of state House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who is hoping to unseat two-term Republican incumbent Gordon Smith. Steve Novick, a Democratic activist from the Portland area, is also in the race. However, party officials continued to look for a candidate after Novick had declared, and now the party establishment appears to be lining up solidly behind Merkley.
Mitt Romney spent between $500 and $1,000 per vote on the Ames straw poll. However, as free spending has he has been so far, money is not a real problem for someone worth $200M, and who made $15M last year alone.
A new national poll from ARG shows Clinton still ahead of the rest of the Democratic field (July numbers in parenthesis):

Clinton: 36 (38)
Obama: 21 (25)
Edwards: 16 (16)
Richardson: 7 (3)
Biden: 4 (2)
Others: 4 (4)
Unsure: 12 (12)

So, upward movement for Richardson, especially among men, among whom he scored 11%. On the Republican side, Romney is gaining:

Giuliani: 27 (30)
Romney: 16 (10)
Thompson: 16 (17)
McCain: 13 (14)
Gingrich: 7 (8)
Others: 8 (6)
Unsure: 14 (11)

Interestingly, there is also a massive gender gap on the Republican side. Among, Romney and Giuliani are tied for first. Among women, Giuliani holds a crushing 34-19-11-10 lead over McCain, Romney and Thompson respectively.

This is an open thread on elections.

Chris Bowers :: Tuesday Afternoon Election News

Tags: Fundraising, IL-14, President 2008, OR-Sen, open threads, (All Tags)

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Tuesday Afternoon Election News | 5 comments

It is so hard for me to understand (0.00 / 0)

the national Richardson boom that is currently happening. It is also interesting that those moving to him seem to be coming from Obama which is odd because they are like night and day. Richardson comes off as awful during the debates and it seems like he has nothing to say that warrants him being in the top tier. Can anyone explain this boom - I just can't see why it is happening.

by: scanman1722 @ Tue Aug 14, 2007 at 20:40:38 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

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Hastert (0.00 / 0)

Chris -

While we all hope and expect Hastert to retire (the GOP also expects him to retire though some may hope he stays on), nothing is any more official than it was yesterday. All of the sources Congressional Quarterly sources quoted over at MyDD are people (GOPers) who expect Hastert to retire. Well they've expected him to retire for months. That's why two of them have exploratory committees and one is in the race already.

As much as they (Congressional Quarterly/MyDD) might want the scoop there is nothing new there. (That's why none of the local television stations or newspapers have anything on "Hastert's retirement" which will surely be a big deal locally.*) Hastert is supposed to announce on the 17th. We all expect him to retire, but there is nothing to confirm that he will yet.

*To be clear CBS2's Mike Flannery has a piece out purportedly breaking Hastert's retirement, but it is based on his own reporting. It also only mentions sources who expect Hastert to retire this year.

by: EricV @ Tue Aug 14, 2007 at 21:20:04 PM UTC

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OK, Confirmed (0.00 / 0)

Reuters:

Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Dennis Hastert is expected to announce on Friday his retirement from Congress, a House Republican aide said on Tuesday.
"He is going to announce a retirement ... that's definitive," said the aide, who asked not to be identified.
But the aide added that it was not yet clear whether Hastert, the longest-serving Republican speaker before stepping down after the 2006 elections, would leave his Illinois congressional seat immediately or would serve out his term, which runs through next year.

Associated Press:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Rep. Dennis Hastert of Illinois, who served as speaker of the House longer than any Republican in history, intends to retire next year at the end of his current term, party officials said Tuesday.
A formal announcement is planned for Friday.

by: EricV @ Tue Aug 14, 2007 at 21:55:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ARG POLL (0.00 / 0)

I don't put a lot of stock in ARG poll's. They produce a lot of poll's more tHan anybody else, but seem all over the place and appear to be outlier's with respect to other polls. Especially in IA

by: BDM @ Tue Aug 14, 2007 at 23:07:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]