Barack Minus Palin Equals Michelle

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Aug 30, 2008 at 21:00


Both of today's tracking polls, Rasmussen (Obama 49%--45% McCain) and Gallup (Obama 49%--41% McCain) where identical to yesterday's three-day rolling average.  This means that Friday polling was virtually identical to Tuesday polling, since today's tracking polls replaced Tuesday's numbers. At most, the difference between Tuesday and Friday was 1-2%, which could be erased via rounding to the nearest integer. And there does appear to be some difference, as Gallup implies that Friday was slightly worse for Obama than Tuesday:

On this day -- with strong partisan forces pushing the public in both directions -- Obama still polled better than he had been prior to the convention, but not as well as he was polling on the individual nights of the convention.
Chris Bowers :: Barack Minus Palin Equals Michelle

Even with this slight difference in mind, in actual political events, this means that the bounce Barack Obama received from his acceptance speech, minus the bounce McCain received from Palin, is roughly equal to the bounce Barack received from Michelle's speech on Monday night.  Tuesday's polling reflected the aftermath of Michelle Obama's speech, while Friday's polling reflected the aftermath of Obama's acceptance speech and Palin's selection. So, this explains the title of the post: Barack minus Palin equals Michelle.

I'll take it. If the net effect of the two major events on Thursday and Friday is equal to the bounce Obama received from his wife's speech, that means on the whole yesterday--and indeed the events of the past week--have been a noticeable net positive for Obama.

Keep in mind, however, Clinton's speech was received very well, and thus led to a very strong night of polling for Democrats on Wednesday. As such, it will be difficult for Obama to stay this far ahead in tomorrow's tracking polls.

Then again, most people I have talked to said that their first reaction to Palin was "this will help McCain, seems like a good choice." However, a few hours later, everyone had decided it was a gimmicky, superficial and all around very poor pick. So, the second day of Palin could hurt McCain quite a bit, and thus allow Obama to maintain his current tracking poll lead.

Even if Obama's lead drops a bit tomorrow, keep in mind that Gallup and Rasmussen have consistently been about 3.5% more favorable to McCain than all other polling firms combined. So, a 6% lead in the tracking polls means a 9-10% lead in other polling firms. On average, that means Obama's national lead heading into today was about 8-9%.

Maybe I am spending too much time on these tracking polls. But hey, I spent way too much time on them in 2004 as well, and even in 2000 before I was a blogger. If I am going to be addicted, I figure I should at least go all the way, and try to discern as much as possible from the addiction.

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Barack Minus Palin Equals Michelle | 44 comments
I'm thinking... (0.00 / 0)
And this is TOTALLY TALKING OUT OF MY ASS, that Obama will have about a 5% lead after the GOP convention.  Palin polled better (or Obama polled worse) than I thought he would, but it still seems to me that Obama has a hell of a lot more hard support than McCain does.   I guess we shall see.    
Seriously? .. (4.00 / 3)
Then again, most people I have talked to said that their first reaction to Palin was "this will help McCain, seems like a good choice."

The first reaction I got was WTF?!?!?  No one except die hard political junkies knew who she was.  Later on it was WTF?!?!? for a different reason, once they found out more about her.

The State Polls Are Going To Be Very Telling (4.00 / 4)
My hunch is that this will help Obama greatly in the Midwest.  Put Michigan out of reach, bring Ohio into the fold, and possibly even put Indiana into the toss-up/lean Obama borderline, if things break right.

But the state to really watch is Virginia.  If he can nudge it into lean Obama status for a week or more before the debates, it could be just the begining of an avalanche.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

Florida (4.00 / 3)
I am very excited about Florida polling. It would be nice if the millions Obama has invested the state could actually pay off. The Biden-Palin combo may be just the thing to get some movement in our favor.

As for Virginia - I really have no clue what to expect at this point.

And then there is Alaska.... we really had a chance guys.. we really did...

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

[ Parent ]
As nice as it would have been to take the home of Deadliest Catch... (4.00 / 1)
I'd gladly sacrifice Alaska to win Ohio and/or Florida, virginia, etc.
[ Parent ]
Pallin isn't helping McCain- she's hurting with undecideds (4.00 / 11)
I m loath to use this , but Andrew Sullivan of all people mentions it here:

"Rasmussen poll on the matter is how those who are currently undecided in the election feel. They, after all, are the votes both campaigns are trying to win over with their veep picks. The key data is in the cross-tabs, which have been missed in some of the coverage so far.

On the critical question, "With Palin As Vice-Presidential Nominee, Are You More Or Less Likely To Vote For McCain," there's a striking result. Among those already for McCain, 68 percent say it makes them more likely to vote for him; only 6 percent say less; and 23 percent said no impact. Among those already for Obama, Palin made only 9 percent of them more likely to switch to McCain, 59 percent less likely, and 30 percent said it would make no difference.

But among the critical undecideds, the Palin pick made only 6 percent more likely to vote for McCain; and it made 31 percent less likely to vote for him. 49 percent said it would have no impact, and 15 percent remained unsure. More to the point: among undecideds, 59 percent said Palin was unready to be president. Only 6 percent said she was. If the first criterion for any job is whether you're ready for it, this is a pretty major indictment of the first act of McCain's presidential leadership.

One other striking finding. If McCain thought he could present Palin as a moderate, he was wrong. A whopping 69 percent view her as conservative (37 percent as very conservative), and only 13 percent see her as moderate.
From this first snap-shot (and unsettled) impression, Palin has helped McCain among Republicans, left Democrats unfazed, but moved the undecideds against him quite sharply."

I actually am begining to think that not only is the cw wrong, but it is actually a net negative for McCain to have done this. It's like the cw reading of Schiavo. Most DC'ers were reading it as a good issue for the GOP, and yet, for the American people, they read it exactly the opposite. As one independent friends, a woman, said to me- "does he really think nominating a beauty queen who I never heard of is going to win my vote?"  

She's not just a beauty queen (4.00 / 3)

 She's an extreme wingnut, grossly out of the mainstream of American politics. The Dems' job is to make sure the public understands that.

 John McCain made a snap decision to risk his appeal to independents in order to court the wingnuts.

 I don't see how that math works out for him. But stranger things have happened...

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
Don't judge the CW just yet (4.00 / 3)
The media could easily turn on Palin. Parts of it already have.

As for portraying Palin as a moderate - she hunts freaking moose! And more seriously, she is against abortion in the case of incest and rape, and I imagine the combination of both. Makes me wonder what McCain was thinking - either he has a secret plan or he really is just that desperate.

Does anyone know where she stands on abortion in cases involving the health/life of the mother?  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

[ Parent ]
He probably was sitting there with his brood... (4.00 / 1)
Mulling over Pawlenty and Romney after they talked him out of Joementum.... As he is thinking Obama comes on the screen in his huge theatre in one of his many houses.... he chuckles thinking, look at this little pansy debutante with his fancy stadium and roman columns.  I'll crucify him next week and then destroy the lightweight in the debates and put him in his place and go to my corona... I mean inaguration.   But all of a sudden he starts paying attention.  Obama is good.  Really good.  He isn't defensive... he's pushing back... oh god he's punching.  FUCK FUCK FUCK... NO NO NO... I don't have a platform to run on... if they don't think he is a wimp, I'm fucked...  Oh god what do I do.... um... um... I know I didn't watch earlier in the week but there is no way the Clintons would ever unify the party, not those selfish SOBs.  So If I pick a woman, I can get all their votes... C**Ts vote for C**ts... and if she's hot... then maybe I can get more of the younger and older men and if she is a bat shit crazy conservative, then the base will love me... this can't backfire...I'm gonna be President.... and nuke Vietnam... hell if Bush can do a revenge job, so can I.    
[ Parent ]
she opposes abortion IN ALL cases (4.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
hmmm (0.00 / 0)
If Palin practices what she preaches (opposition to contraception), what happens if she gets pregnant again, either before or after the election?  Pretty sure we've never had a veep go out on maternity leave ... and if she were to forego such, how would that play with the fundies, a number of whom already have problems with her usurping roles Biblically reserved for menfolk?  Is she forcing her husband into celibacy to avoid taking any chances?  I think some version of these questions legitimately need to be raised ...
[ Parent ]
Explain this please (4.00 / 1)
If the numbers are about the same as they were pre-Obama speech and pre-Palin, then don't we have to assume one of the following is true:

-both the Obama speech and Palin announcement were neutral events
-both events helped their respective candidates
-both events hurt their respective candidates

Since it's hard to believe that the Obama speech actually hurt him, doesn't it follow that the Palin announcement helped McCain?

Yet, I thought that the cross-tabs on polling was showing that Palin had NOT been a positive for McCain.

Somewhere along the line my information or assumptions are wrong.

Oh, one more thing: Is it definitely the case that the last tracking polls took into account the Palin announcement? Could some of those polled not yet received that news?

In context, here's my guess (4.00 / 2)
Obama's speech didn't increase his numbers because the hold out voters were Democrats waiting for other Democrats (the Clintons to approve of Obama). The speech helped reaffirm the thesis that was driven home throughout the week. It also resulted in free publicity to over 40 million people. Most of which was overwhelming positive. McCain can't make the same boast.  It only follows that Pallin helped McCain if one limits one's perspetive to saying the speech for Obama's numbers were make or break rather than reinforcing.

You are right about the cross tabs, as I mention above, on Pallin. The basic point is that what this tells me isn't so much that Obama's speech did it for him but the entire convention in its entirety,a nd the speech reaffirmed what they, the voters were already deciding by Wednesday. Again, just a guess.

I think what this means for the race is that Obama is definitely a head by several points,a nd that Pallin won't matter. indeed, if anything, she's a ticking time bomb that will harm Mccain , especially with her ethics investigation and his picking her without much vetting. Again just my guess.

[ Parent ]
Distraction (4.00 / 1)
I think that main impact the Palin announcement had was that it prevented a further growth in Obama support by distracting attention from him.

This is not a trivial impact, but it doesn't show up in polling data, because it's like Sherlock Holmes's dog that didn't bark in the middle of the night.

There is, of course, no way to prove this thesis, but it does seem like a reasonable conjecture.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Well but that was McCain's goal so your theory (4.00 / 1)
isn't that far off from what probably happened. the problem for him is the long term of the next 60 days. They will be sweating bullets regarding troopergate.

I had this conversation with this Democrat on Friday morning. We overestimate the Republicans at time. He was going on and on about how this nomination was a master stroke and that he was terrified that the GOP would win once again. What does he do to confirm this- he goes to Fox News.

My point is just because of the press the GOP is receiving doesn't mean its a good thing or will be interpreted as such. Sometimes the cultural dynamics are out of their hands.

If they were truly as smart as they thought , McCain's camp would have choosen someone a little less offensive to women who will in all likelihood see this as th young pretty no nothing replacing the smart capable older woman. That's the cultural imagery or as we were saying (an indie woman friend of mine) any boobs will do.

so yeah, McCain cock blocked Obama. Good for him. I happen to like the gift McCain gave Obama better. The ticking time bomb that will keep on giving. Someone is sweating bullets in the GOp.

[ Parent ]
I Think They Were Trying To Do Much More Than This (4.00 / 3)
I think they only got the bare minimum of what they were hoping for.  What's more, given how the press is totally in the tank for them, it was virtually assured that they'd get this much.

The problem is, their own convention could very well bring them a negative bounce, which would mean, in effect, that they didn't really stop the Obama bounce at all, they merely delayed it somewhat.

This would be almost impossible to prove, but my overall sense is that if people come away feeling that the GOP is lost and directionless, and that Palin was a failed attempt to hide this, then favorable impressions of Obama and the Dems may have a delayed effect of bringing undecideds around.

Usually, I think that this sort of speculation is far-fetched.  But this time, I think it's rather transparent how all of this is interconnected, so I think that this may well be the exception that proves the rule.  Certainly, the cross-tabs cited at 538 this morning point in this direction.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Hoping for much more (4.00 / 3)
Yeah, the Palin pick strikes me as made by someone who believed all the hype about PUMA's. If I'm right, it's ironic that the media failed John McCain when they were doing their best to help him - or, rather, that the media helped Obama when they were doing their best not to.
[ Parent ]
I liked that last little paragraph ;-) (0.00 / 0)
.. cracked me up
[ Parent ]
Maybe, maybe not (4.00 / 4)

 The longer the media had talked about Obama's speech, the more they would have spun it into a failure.

 Palin cut that process short. So the image most voters have of the Obama speech is the original, unfiltered one. And I think that's a good thing.

 It's just a guess, really. But given the way the media "covered" the DNC, ANY bounce for Obama is remarkable.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
Could Be (0.00 / 0)
But I sort of think it was going to take them longer to get their tear-down talking points in order, and by then the bus tour was under way, and, well, from there it can just get farther and farther off track.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
Nate at 538 (0.00 / 0)
Nate made a good point - Convention bounces are temporary, so McCain gains little in the long term by minimizing that bounce.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
I agree 100% (0.00 / 0)
The speech shared time with McShame's VP spec and then was over shadowed by the sheer idiocy of the pick.   The only way to have further blast it out would have been to announce Gore, Clinton, Powell, or some other big namer.   He probably got a bounce from those who didn't pay attention and just saw that he picked a woman and this ate into Obama's lead (plus I'm not sure how much more Obama could have grown)... as more press comes out (and mostly negative so far) I think we will see Obama solidify... AS I said, I think he goes into the final stretch after the RNCC up 5% in the tracking polls....  
[ Parent ]
Huh? (4.00 / 2)
"Then again, most people I have talked to said that their first reaction to Palin was "this will help McCain, seems like a good choice." Sounds like somethinfg Sirota would say!

NO ONE I know said that, and after a day and after her same speech given in the same area of Penn, where Hillary beat Obama by 69% when she mentioned Hillary they booed, I would say she isn't getting Hillary voters at all.

Palin smiling as the crowd boos Clinton is useful, get that tape (4.00 / 2)
And make sure its available, needs to be shared.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky
[ Parent ]
Palin Seems to be a Dud (4.00 / 4)
Thus far.  I think now the next pending issue is the spin of Gustav, and whether the GOP attempts to opportunistically use the hurricane to boost their own image.  
That would also be a mistkae on their part (4.00 / 1)
the smrtest political move would be to postpone, but they seem deadset against that
[ Parent ]
Worse Than A Dud? (4.00 / 4)
What also remains to be seen is if she's worse than a dud.  There seems to be a great deal about her that's quite questionable, and unlike GW Bush, she doesn't have a unified state party, press and political culture in lock-step behind her, so she could very easily crumble.

Of course the Reps are aware of this, and ready to pounce on any Dem efforts to help this along.  But Palin herself is so vulnerable, and the local Alaska media seems to have at least a sprinkling of folks who take their jobs seriously.  So it could get very dicey for the GOP, particularly if the Dems wisely use any and all of Palin's woes as a reflection on McCain's judgment--or lack thereof.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
yeah the state gop of Alaska isn't all that happy with the Pallin choice (4.00 / 2)
they may want to quiet them down first
[ Parent ]
Good luck to them (0.00 / 0)
This isn't 2000 or 2004, the Republican party is far, far from being the unified force it was then.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
I was gonna say the same thing... (4.00 / 1)
Hell the state GOP leader came out and said she isn't ready.   She FUCKED them royally and they want payback.   What better than national embarassment or indictment.
[ Parent ]
Frankly, I'd be happy if everyone ignored Palin (4.00 / 4)
entirely, and simply repeated: "He picked a VP nominee who he'd only met for fifteen minutes? That's who he picked to be a heartbeat away from the presidency? Someone he'd only met once, for fifteen minutes?"

Then plug in the unstable/half-cocked/'impulse control disorder' wrap-up of your choice.

[ Parent ]
Is the bar being set too low, though? (0.00 / 0)

 Suppose Palin delivers a competent speech at the RNC, which she will probably do. Then the media narrative becomes "Gee, maybe she's not that bad after all!"

 And that frame is going to be a pain to undo.

 That's why the best path to hit her on is her extreme wingnuttery. That's not going to change.

  She's Marilyn Musgrave all over again.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
i agree we should focus on the wingnuttery... (4.00 / 2)
but i don't really agree with your argument about the convention and expectations.

of course she is going to give a competent speech.  giving a good speech is not the same thing as being a competent national politician.  

the expectations game is most relevant for the vp debate.  but really, palin will make or break herself through interviews with the press.  

[ Parent ]
Let the press hit her. They're actually (4.00 / 9)
gonna do a little digging. They don't know her yet, she's not in the Village. They'll sniff around.

We should just hit McCain. He chose a VP candidate he doesn't even know. He'd only met her once, for fifteen minutes. What kind of hothead chooses for a Vice President--a heartbeat away from the leader of the free world--someone he'd only met once? What kind of person does that? It's just bizarre behavior.

Yeah, the fact Palin has zero foreign policy experience seems to undermine every single thing about McCain's narrative, but let's go to temperament. This is abnormal, unserious, unstable behavior, choosing a complete stranger to become the President of the United States should anything happen to you.

[ Parent ]
well obama is clearly following your suggestion (0.00 / 0)
and i agree by the way that right now its unnecessary for the Dems to do a thing. a) because VPs aren't going to determine elections and b) because the press is doing it for us (sadly precisely because as you explan).
[ Parent ]
No one is voting for Palin despite McCain. (0.00 / 0)
McCain gets the vote or Obama does. This doesn't help anyone vote for McCain.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky
[ Parent ]
Agreed... (4.00 / 5)
I think Biden DOES help undecideds with Obama.... Those unsure of his experience feel a lot better with Biden as an advisor.  

My dad is an example of this.  Mind you, Obama is our senator.     He liked Bill Clinton (voted for him both elections) and HATES Bush with a passion casting ABB votes in 2000 and 2004.  Before 1992, he had cast NOTHING but GOP votes.   He LOVED McCain in 2000.   He was a Ron Paul supporter for the primaries (god knows why) and even thought there was a small chance of validity with the muslim smear (despite my loud vocal offerings of facts on that one.)  He wasn't sure how he was gonna vote in the GE... He doesn't trust McCain anymore because he thinks McCain sold out to Bush (who he would literally not break in traffic for) but was not comfortable with Obama due to the experience factor and probably a few other less flattering reasons.    When Obama picked Biden, he started to feel more comfortable with Obama and started leaning that way.

I talked with him after the speech on Thursday.  He said it was one of the most amazing things he had seen.  He is not only fully on board for Obama, he wants to go out and volunteer for his campaign.   His comments were "I don't know if he can do all the things he wants to do... but I know he will work his ass off to try to do them."    

So just a little anecdotal evidence for everyone.

[ Parent ]
I like the "complete stranger angle." (4.00 / 1)
It makes me think, one way to put this into perspective for people is to ask, "would ask someone you had only met once or twice to be godmother to your child?"

Because on an emotional level, that's sort of what VP is, the person who steps in to do the job should something happen to you.

It really shows how cavalier he is about this whole thing, he doesn't take his responsibilities seriously at all.

Montani semper liberi

[ Parent ]
We are hitting like this... (4.00 / 1)
Obama though is hitting McCain.  Check out the QuickHits to see the video of their latest Ad.  It is FANTASTIC!
[ Parent ]
They are.... (4.00 / 1)
...McCain will deliver his address via satellite from the "devastation zone"... I kid you not!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
THAT I think would backfire on him.... (4.00 / 1)
Pandering to the crowd.  Once you get desperation stink on you, your motives get question.
[ Parent ]
Umm… (0.00 / 0)
...obsessing over polls kinda loses me after awhile. Can we just give it up to Michelle Obama? Most of us watching her speech didn't need polls to tell us that it was among the first signs that the convention would go well. Also, big-up to Jesse Jackson, Jr., who's part of the braintrust behind Barack Obama's campaign and also gave a fine speech on Night One. These folks help chart Barack's course while John McCain increasingly throws haymakers at his own shadow.

"This ain't for the underground. This here is for the sun." -Saul Williams
The awfulness of this pick is somewhat time-delayed but (4.00 / 2)
so is one of the main benefits to McCain -- it increases fundie enthusiasm and turnout. Evidence for this is everywhere -- from Rush Limbaugh's enthusiastic support, to the 7 million McCain raked in.

One interesting, unremarked aspect of this 3rd-and-long desperation move by McCain: it provides evidence for the theory that Obama was decidedly ahead in terms of the fundamentals. There were a lot of folks around here who weren't quite sure about that.

Now let's sit back, take a chill pill and watch her unravel on the TV and in the Tubes.

And I wish people would stop saying this is the worst pick since Quayle -- she is far, far worse than Quayle was and that is saying something.

A 4 and 8 point lead is all that should be expected to happen (0.00 / 0)
Palin brings back disaffected hardcore conservatives to McCain, but you can't expect that the remaining 40% of the population is going to watch obama's nomination speech.  

They heard the greek temple quote and moved on.

The real question is "How accurate are the polls?  Are they missing 5 points of Obama's lead in Iowa or 17 points in South Carolina?  If they are its because they aren't accurately gauging enthusiasm.

The speech was all about firing up the base and making that 49% solid and enthusiastic.

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