CBS has a new poll out, entirely post-Palin and post-Democratic national convention, that shows Obama ahead 50%-42%, with leaners. The previous CBS poll, conducted in the middle of August, showed Obama only ahead 47%-45% with leaners, so this is a significant jump.
Overall, with leaners includeds, the four polls conducted entirely post-convention and post-Palin show Obama ahead 49.3%--44.8%, versus 46.0%--46.0% in those same four polls conducted before the convention. So far, the combined effect of the Democratic convention and the two Vice-Presidential choices is a 4.5% net gain for Obama. Just as importantly, Obama is now knocking on the door of 50%, and the number of undecideds in the electorate has dropped.
Palin has failed to make a dent in Obama's lead. And now, if anything, McCain is poised to slip back even further. There will be no free media tonight for the McCain campaign, as the prime time speeches at the Republican convention have been cancelled. And, as I explain in the extended entry, it only gets worse for Republicans from there.
While Republicans have canceled tonight's speeches in order to avoid comparisons to the Bush administration around Katrina, every single story on why the speeches are being canceled includes an allusion to the massive Bush administration failure around Hurricane Katrina. Something like this:
Republicans shifted from politics to storm relief when they opened their nominating convention on Monday, shelving the usual glitter and celebration in deference to Hurricane Gustav.
Fearing televised images of Republican festivities would be inappropriate as the storm slammed the Gulf Coast, McCain and his party began a curtailed session focused on formal convention business and appeals for hurricane aid.
So, while Republicans canceled tonight's prime time speeches to avoid looking like the Bush administration around Katrina, there are thousands of stories today reminding everyone of the Bush administration around Katrina, and laying bare the political nature of McCain's motivations for canceling tonight's speeches. As such, the McCain campaign is actually facing more and worse comparisons then they otherwise would have, not less.
Further, in the absence of news on the Republican convention, political news is instead dominated by news of Sarah Palin's pregnant daughter. I am going out on a limb when I say that this probably won't help Republicans as much as one night of uninterrupted free media would have. Even Obama's statement about how Bristol Palin should be "off-limits" actually keeps the story going for a while. People will talk about this story all the way between now and Election Day, which also will be the time when the ethics inquiry on Palin makes its proclamation.
In short, this feels like a bonus convention night for Democrats, when we are already ahead. Our lead is growing, and Republicans face a night of very bad media instead of a convention night. At this rate, Obama should have no difficulty maintaining his lead entering next week.
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