Afternoon Bounce / Palin Crash Update

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 16:56


The network in my apartment has been down all day. Also, my laptop is in D.C., and for some reason I can't log onto my neighbor's network. So, it might be light blogging for me until later this evening. I will try to actually watch, and live-blog, the Republican convention as punishment.

In the absence of new state polls for over a week now, take a look at the national polling average over at Pollster.com. Obama now leads 48.8%--43.6%, for a 5.2% lead with only 7.6% either undecided or in favor of third-parties. That gives him a nice upward spike, and a greater than 95% chance of winning the national popular vote.

I am convinced that the bounce has just was much to with Palin as it had to do with the convention.   Keep in mind that Obama's lead went up significantly today, when Monday replaced Friday in the tracking polls. That means that yesterday was a much better day of polling for Obama than the day after his convention speech. This can only be attributable to people turning hard against McCain because of Palin. That isn't surprising at all. the news only gets worse for McCain / Palin too, as it is now confirmed that Palin's husband was a secessionist as recently as 2002.

Hard for me to imagine that the first day of the convention will help McCain much. The country doesn't seem to be in a mood to listen to Republicans right now. It is possible that the polls will start to come back down to Earth on Friday or Saturday, but my gut says that Palin is a permanent game changer for this campaign. McCain won't catch up from this one.

Chris Bowers :: Afternoon Bounce / Palin Crash Update

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Afternoon Bounce / Palin Crash Update | 86 comments
I like the number... (0.00 / 0)
But just curious how you came up with 95%.  Not doubting, just wondering the metrics.
A guess: (0.00 / 0)
A margin of two standard deviations from the mean will encompass 96% of all possibilities.  I suspect that's where "greater than 95%" comes from, although I haven't taken the trouble to calculate the standard deviation of these polls.
[ Parent ]
Check to see that you are using automatic dhcp and not a static IP (0.00 / 0)
So Palin herself was not a member of that secessionist party? (0.00 / 0)
Is there a legitimate way of holding her accountable for the views of that party, not counting her husband's association?

I thought that she gave some speech recently, basically commending the party, but not very specifically.  

Is that it?

she was a member (4.00 / 1)
She was a member in 1994, but more recent activity on her part is more hazy.

It wasn't that uncommon or unusual in the early 90s.  Far from being a wingnut third-party, in 1991, Walter Hickel won the Governorship as a member of the Alaska Independence Party.

 -aip
(with zero relation to Alaska independence party! :) )

end the occupation of Iraq

[ Parent ]
hickel's membership (0.00 / 0)
More on Hickel's second governorship here

He left the republican party in 1990, joined AIP and won the governorship, though without advocating their secessionist agenda.  He returned to the republican party in 1994, when it was no longer convenient for him to be on their ticket.

It would have been better for Palin if he had formed an "Alaskans for Hickel" party ala Lieberman. :)

end the occupation of Iraq

[ Parent ]
it all depends on your perspective of what's normal (4.00 / 3)
Joining the Trinity United Church of Christ or listening to black liberation theology sermons wasn't that uncommon or unusual in Chicago's Southside, either. That didn't save Obama from being savaged. Just sayin'.
[ Parent ]
Who said she wasn't a member of the Alaska Independence Party? (0.00 / 0)
I think it may help to keep the controversy alive for a bit longer. Not via any comments from the Obama campaign, of course.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."
[ Parent ]
Here's my answer (4.00 / 4)
Here are some excerpts (without the links copied) of a post at the Jed Report (http://www.jedreport.com/2008/09/sarah-palin-and-the-alaskan-in.html):

So the McCain campaign is now denying assertions that Sarah Palin was ever involved with the secessionist Alaskan Independence Party.

Superficially, they seem to have a good case. As Jake Tapper writes, according to voter registration records, Palin first registered to vote in 1982. She registered as a Republican and hasn't changed her registration since. Case closed, right?

Not exactly.

Her partisan registration notwithstanding, nobody can dispute that she recorded a video welcome for the 2008 AIP convention in which she highlighted her view that Alaska could be "self-sufficient." Nor can they dispute that in October, 2007 -- long before she was considered a VP prospect -- AIP vice chairman Dexter Clark spoke of her past involvement.

Clark, the AIP vice chairman, addressed Palin's involvement with the party in October, 2007, speaking before The Second North American Secessionist Convention. Keep in mind that this was before McCain had won the nomination, let alone selected Palin as his VP.

Clark talked about Palin at The First North American Secessionist Convention, held in 2006 before Palin was elected governor.

   Our current governor, we mentioned at the last conference, the one we were hoping would get elected, Sarah Palin, did get elected. ... She was an AIP member before she got the job as a mayor of a small town - that was a non-partisan job. But you get along to go along - she eventually joined the Republican Party.

Given the timing of Clark's comments -- before any VP speculation and before she even become governor -- he doesn't seem to have a political motivation to lie.

And now the AIP is sticking to its assertions that Palin attended their convention in 1994 and has been supportive of their party.

Meanwhile, the McCain campaign does have an obvious political motivation to lie, and in fact has a track record of lying about Palin's record. And when you factor in Palin's 2008 video greeting to the AIP's convention, which included obvious secessionist codewords like "self-sufficient," the McCain campaign's denials seem even less credible.

The exact nature of Sarah Palin's relationship and involvement with the AIP certainly does require more research and vetting

[ Parent ]
self-sufficient is code for controlling oil revenues (4.00 / 3)
i get the sense they could care less about this secession stuff, what they really want is control of the national park lands and underlying oil fields so they can sell it off for their own profit, not for the general profit of the US.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
You're Beginning To Catch On To The Criminal Core Of Their Mentality (4.00 / 1)
Care to revise that 40% agreement downward again?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
NO (2.00 / 2)
because unlike most hand wringing leftists I completely disagree with efforts to strictly control gun access. I for one am very glad the DC law was slammed.

Further I would also like to see greater constraints on the ability of the govt to barrow money. If you haven't noticed they've double leveraged social security, and quintuple leveraged ever US dollar out there.

The Kelo Eminent Domain decision was complete ca-ca. Stevens is an idiot.

I could go on, but why bother, we have over simplified rants to publish.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

[ Parent ]
My My! I Suddenly See Why You're Defending Palin! (2.67 / 3)
Your free-associating way of thinking is strikingly similar to whiffs I've caught from her.

Who brought gun control into this, anyway?

You like your criminal conspiracies armed to the teeth, eh?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
I suspect your right about their use of secession rhetoric (0.00 / 0)
But that's not to say that we should ignore this altogether either.

If linking Palin too secession seems silly, it's at worst on part with the "Obama is not patriotic" claim.  And if secession can somehow be used to counter the anti-patriotism canard, then I'm happy to invoke it.

On the other hand, we can't even go there without pretty good evidence that Palin actually endorses the party.

[ Parent ]
It's Not A Question of Endorsement (4.00 / 2)
That totally buys into their framing. It's much more basic than that.  It's a matter of who she's hung with, who she's relied upon, and who relies on her.

If you let them get away with "plausible deniability" when they're still on the campaign trail, you don't stand a chance if they ever get elected, and have every federal agency under the sun to run interference for them.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
I agree in principle (0.00 / 0)
But tactically, I don't know whether it's effective to make use of this whole secessionist party angle without a more direct hook.
[ Parent ]
holding her accountable for the views of that party (0.00 / 0)
you mean like preferential voting initiative (instant run off voting)?

http://www.akip.org/resol00.ht...

or how about dissolving the federal govt should the president decide to suspend the constitution and declare martial law?

http://www.akip.org/resol00.ht...

"That when or if the President of the United States, the Congress of the United States or any other federal agent or agency declares the Constitution of the United States to be suspended or abolished, if the President or any other federal entity attempts to institute martial law or its equivalent without an official declaration in one or more of the states without the consent of that state or if any federal order attempts to make it unlawful for individual Americans to own firearms or to confiscate firearms, the State of Alaska, when joined by thirty-four of the other fifty states, declares as follows: that the states resume all state powers delegated by the Constitution of the United States and assume total sovereignty;"

its a libertarian group, good gracious, they have some good ideas and some not so good ideas. stop pretending their anti-american, its silly. as lefty/libertarian type myself I agree with about 65% of the stuff outlined on their site. if anything AIP membership means Palin is an improvement on McManiac.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

[ Parent ]
ok maybe 40% (0.00 / 0)
their site is really slow right now. I liked a lot of the stuff on the 2000 resolutions page, their other resolutions page is less juicy. there they appear to spend a lot of time with getting their land back. there are lots of problems with govt seizure of land, its a complex issue, but I doubt they are addressing it well. but all their guns, education, govt debt, and unease about fed authority positions I am mostly down with. being a protector of constitutional rights doesn't mean excluding amendment 2. I find this secession issue silly and not likely to move people in the middle - independents who tend to be more libertarian if anything.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
THEIR Land? (4.00 / 5)
You mean the public land they want to claim as their own just by shitting and pissing on it.

They're nothing but a would-be gang of thieves.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
is there some other way to claim land? (0.00 / 0)
certainly YOU of all people don't buy into the idea that the current land trade market was set up fairly.

but none of that matters, your focus on a random adjective misses the larger point.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

[ Parent ]
So, You're Fine With Rightwing Nutcases Stealing Public Land? (4.00 / 1)
Good to know.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
I'll keep that in mind (4.00 / 3)
When I decide I want your front yard.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.
[ Parent ]
Good Point (4.00 / 5)
The state of Alaska got friggin PRUDHOE BAY as a result of their statehood lands settlement. Neither the state nor the secessionist crazies ever owned the rest of the public land in Alaska. The Arctic NATIONAL Wildlife Refuge, Denali NATIONAL Park and the rest of OUR public lands in the state belong to all Americans, not to a few nutcases.
[ Parent ]
Sarah "emininent domain" Palin (4.00 / 2)
Mayor Palin confiscated land by eminent domain for a city recreation building, botched the acquisition and landed the city in court.

Hypocritical cronyism, that's why Keating Five McCain found his "soul-mate" in Palin.

[ Parent ]
IOKIYAR ("Even If You're Not All The Time" Edition) (4.00 / 1)
Our eminent domain is good.

Their eminent domain is of the Devil!


"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Secession will indeed move some people in the middle (0.00 / 0)
Folks with military experience, for one.
[ Parent ]
So? Hitler Was A Vegetarian. Your Point? (4.00 / 1)
Really, dude.

Wanna buy a bridge?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
whats you point? (0.00 / 0)
you take the bad with the good. the AIP makes her a libertarian at worst, who do you expect to win over with this criticism? not likely independents.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
If she has to denounce her "libertarian" views to be VP nominee (4.00 / 1)
how will that play out back home in Alaska after McCain loses this election and she has to face re-election?



"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

[ Parent ]
I'm Trying To Win Over Anyone Who'd Buy YOUR Argument (4.00 / 6)
I'm quite willing to take them on directly, should any of them show up here.  But for now I'm challenging you.

They aren't libertarians.  They are propertarians.  All about their own private property, and--oh!--liberating as much as they can from the rest of us... and, of course, future generations.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
I think "opportunist" is the operative word (4.00 / 4)
Not Libertarian or secessionist, from what I've read.

She is really good at scoping out avenues for her own advancement, using people and dumping them when they are no longer useful.  Her right-wing social views may be genuine, but even there there is evidence of her just using them as wedge issues.   She truly is McCain's soul-mate.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
I Think You're Right (0.00 / 0)
She even left the Pentecostal Church she was raised in for "non-denominational" digs, even though she goes back to it fairly often, apparently.

From HuffPo:

It is impossible to determine how much Wasilla Assembly of God has shaped Palin's thinking. She was baptized there at the age of 12 and attended the church for most of her adult life. When Palin was inaugurated as governor, the founding pastor of the church delivered the invocation. In 2002, Palin moved her family to a nondenominational church, but she continues to worship at a related Assembly of God church in Juneau.

Is there anything about her that's not for sale?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Even so (4.00 / 5)
The "Alaska First" concept directly conflicts with the "Country First" slogan. I see no real down-side to asking her to clarify her position on the issue in a public forum.

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."
[ Parent ]
Right (4.00 / 3)
The point isn't really that the Independence Party is bad, but that Palin's association - provided there is a real association - may help blunt the patriotic (or xenophobic) rhetoric used against Obama.
[ Parent ]
Country First! Alaska First! Me First! God First! First First! (4.00 / 2)
It's PoMo conservatism, what with the fluid concepts of identity and the floating tobogganing signifier.

Jefferson Davis, freedom fighter! Don'tcha know!

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
akthough I'd love more in this vien, exploring the floating signifier of my property, over your ability to retain it in court, should that become necessary. (0.00 / 0)
I have rec'ed this, because it points to the "philosophy follows money" lushness of it. Republicans don't have a philosophy they have bank accounts and excuses.

Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.
[ Parent ]
Of course (4.00 / 1)
"Country First" is no longer the theme of the convention. I wonder why?

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.
[ Parent ]
LOL! (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
Funny, that's the signs I'm seeing on TV right now. (0.00 / 0)


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."
[ Parent ]
"Serving a Cause Greater Than Self" (0.00 / 0)
Convention site

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.
[ Parent ]
McCain camp playing sexism card... (4.00 / 1)
http://blogs.abcnews.com/polit...

They are burning up ALL their ammo now, aren't they?  I expected the whining to occur in a few weeks, not now!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

So, is it a racist attack to call Obama inexperienced? (4.00 / 3)


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."
[ Parent ]
Aha!!!! (4.00 / 1)
Very good! :-)

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
Ah. (4.00 / 5)
The woman who trashed Hewlett-Packard is defending the woman who trashed Wasilla, Alaska.
[ Parent ]
agreed, it's hard to see McCain recovering from this one (4.00 / 1)
With less than 60 days to go, re-defining Failin' Palin is a losing proposition, esp. without the traditional advertising advantage for the republicans.


end the occupation of Iraq
Intrade (4.00 / 3)
The betting on whether Sarah Palin will withdraw has vacillated wildly on this first day of trading, but the consensus, so far, seems to be that there's a 12-15% chance of withdrawal.  That sounds about right: McCain's stubbornness has an 85+ percent chance of trumping his common sense.
[ Parent ]
It's Not Just His Decision (0.00 / 0)
If she decides that she's on a sinking ship, she may flee.
[ Parent ]
Either Way, I'm Eager To See Alaska Polled (4.00 / 3)
Somehow, I don't think McCain has quite sewed up those three mammoth EVs like he'd planned on.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
maybe not (0.00 / 0)
although if she has 60% popularity in Alaska, I can't see how he wouldn't wrap up that state. He probably has a better chance there than Arizona.

Although I agree that Palin is a disaster, I wouldn't be surprised if her horrible start lowers the bar so much that she becomes a sort of underdog, low-expectation candidate.

Think of her as a female George W. Bush. Let's not misunderestimate her.

Just like Paris Hilton was able to sound smart on energy policy by reading a teleprompter in that fake ad, so too can Sarah Palin sound smart tomorrow while reading her speech. We need to get her in front of real reporters pronto to play "stump the chump", because if she has time to brush up on foreign and domestic policy she may have the charisma to b.s. her way through.

[ Parent ]
She Was At 80% Popularity Just A Few Eye-Blinks Ago (4.00 / 1)
She was already sinking fast when McCain picked her.

And now she's making Alaska look like a laughingstock.  

Folks could either rally round her (she may be an idiot, but she's our idiot) or run like the wind.

Hence, my desire to see polls.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Strongly agree. This is now Obama's sate to loose. (4.00 / 1)
Proud defiant Alaskans are not angry at the 'rest of us' for attacking Palin they are angry at Palin for making them look foolish.

Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.
[ Parent ]
Reap What You Sew (0.00 / 0)
Eh, they're the ones who picked her.
[ Parent ]
While I agree, but America chose a Bush three times. (0.00 / 0)
And Americans are loath to hear non-Americans noticing just how venal and incompetent this club of 'leaders' is. So if you ask an Alaskan thety might tell you butt the hell out, but give them a chance to toss'em and out they go.

Now if they vote for McCain, Palin becomes Americas problem. So... the only to pay her back for all the joy she has brought them, is to bring forward more crimes and weirdness.


Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.

[ Parent ]
Hardly (4.00 / 5)
It's quite easy to see McCain recovering from this one. I'm not saying he will, but if Palin survives and turns into a not-awful to pretty good candidate, then it's all tied up again. And the low expectations being set for her play right into her hands.

The giddiness of the blogs over a small Obama bounce-bad few days for McCain is making me uneasy.

I felt more confident when the focus was on McCain's houses.

Don't get me wrong: if this brings him down, Hallelujah, but I doubt it will, especially with the foreign policy crisis likely to intervene between now and the election.

[ Parent ]
I don't disagree... (4.00 / 5)

 ...but I don't hear too many people saying she's dumb and inarticulate, which is where the "low expectations" would come in. The focus has been more on her corruption, her lying, and her hypocrisy. None of that can be washed away by one competent speech.

 That said, there's no time to get complacent.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
"The focus has been more on her corruption, her lying, and her hypocrisy." (4.00 / 1)
I think that's part of the problem. All that would be fine if it was ALWAYS couched in terms of McCain. But it's been too easy to get wrapped up in Palin. And that is decidedly off-message for us as well as for McCain.

Need to keep the focus on McCain. Just like the Obama campaign is with their new ads.  

[ Parent ]
The message should be... (4.00 / 2)

 "If McCain is this sloppy and impulsive in picking his running mate, how can we trust him to make the right decision in a time of national crisis?"

  Or, something like, "Can we leave our national security in the hands of a man who won't even vet his VP pick?"

   

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
Toast (4.00 / 6)
If Palin can't win the checkout aisle, she can't win.  Yes, she'll do better in the debates than expected, but it is already too late.

I also don't suggest getting complacent, but the reality is McCain seriously, seriously screwed up.  Everybody is getting that.

[ Parent ]
She'll Do Better In The Debates Than Expected (4.00 / 1)
if she shows up.

Beyond that, it's anybody's guess.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
She'll offer a bunch of vague bromides: (0.00 / 0)
overly broad, grand and unclear ideological mumbo jumbo.  

Ordinarily it would fly, hell it does fly for McCain, but, with a little pressure from people who demand to know more (organized petition to the various MSM news outlets?), it may yet be different for Palin.

I do tend to think McCain is now toast.

[ Parent ]
One other thing to consider... (4.00 / 6)

  This was supposed to be a puff week for the Republicans. They were going to get their convention, McCain was going to get his coronation, the media was going to make up for the "mistakes" of their Dem convention coverage by airing wall-to-wall unfiltered Republican hate rants against Obama.

   But instead, the Palin affair is sucking all of the air from their big party. The media isn't talking about the Republicans' message and McCain's greatness; the media is talking about Sarah Palin. And not in a good way.

   And this was going to be Hype Week for the GOP.

  So while I agree with you that the worst thing we can do is get complacent, it IS true that this is a pretty big hole for McCain. Let's hope Obama has it in him to shovel some dirt into it.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
Rec'ed not because but in spite of (0.00 / 0)
Let's hope Obama has it in him to shovel some dirt into it.  

Not because I think you are 'wrong wrong wrong' but because if we have seen anything, it is that Obama, more than most often, has something excellent to do and say that will cause, me at least, to say, "damn that was smart."

(I know I use a lot of commas. Its a habit I can't break. Here take some some so I don't abuse them.  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,)

Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.

[ Parent ]
Indeed (4.00 / 2)
It almost seems like the Republican VP pick is sucking more oxygen from the Republican convention than the hurricane did. How'd that happen?
[ Parent ]
Plus its losing him the media (4.00 / 8)
Not only were they caught off guard because they had no idea she was even in the running, they are truly having a hard time not trashing her.  Watch Campbell Brown savage Tucker Bounds.  They know they have been coopted into McCain's attempt to snow the American people, and many of them are just not having any of it.  Especially the women.  Campbell Brown is one,  Erin Burnett, the perky economic conservative on CNBC was just trashing Larry Kudlow the moring about her qualifications,  these are women who had to work their way up and have to fight to be taken seriously, and they see her charm her way on to the GOP ticket by tockling the old amn.  it really galls them, I think.  

McCain has lost his base.  That's the real gamechanger.  As Nietzsche one said, when we have to change our minds about someone, we charge it heavily to his account.  it happened to Bush in 2005 and it is happening to McCain now.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
Campbell Brown... (4.00 / 1)

 ...does NOT savage Tucker Bounds --or ANY McCainite -- without permission.

 So maybe there HAS been a sea change in the media.

 I'll believe it when I see a little more of it. It could be that McCain's tantrum today might bring them back to heel.

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
play the video (4.00 / 2)
Stories about voting registration are important but the video sealed the deal for me. It's an official video from the Governor's office funded by taxpayers, remember.

I'm governor Sarah Palin and I am delighted to welcome you to the 2008 Alaskan Independence Party convention in the golden heart city, Fairbanks. Your party plays an important role in our state's politics. I've always said that competition is so good and that applies to political parties as well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

"McCain won't catch up from this one" (0.00 / 0)
I'm a bit concerned about the debates actually. I know people have been saying they will be the moment that Obama finally starts to pull away a la Reagan in 1980 but I think we are underestimating McCain in that arena. I'd certainly like a bigger lead going in than the 3% or so I think is likely. I'm not sure if the visual advantage will be enough.
the more people find out about McCain's (4.00 / 2)
policies the better.  He has no issues to run on.  All he's god is "Obama is a scary black man."  I can't wait until people find out more about McCain's desire to privatize social security, appoint conservative judges, etc.
[ Parent ]
Don't get all overconfident on us, Chris (4.00 / 8)

  The Palin thing is unfolding very well for the Democrats -- maybe a little too well. I say enjoy the ride, but the main problem is that most of it is focused on the pregnancy -- which is the least relevant part of the case against Palin, and the one most likely to backfire.

  The Obama camp needs to have a few anvils handy -- NONE of them related to Bristol.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

haha (4.00 / 4)
The life of a prominent blogger. Optimistic post and you get "don't get overconfident." Pessimistic post and you get "shut up and support the candidate."

I do think that it's early to have any conclusions but all these stories take the focus directly to the GOP ticket's ability to govern. Specifically, nobody is talking about whether they're able to govern because there's too much scandal. It's the late 90s all over again except voters have a chance to preempt it at the ballot box.

If all this plays out so that McCain can't get back on message, that IS the ballgame.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.

[ Parent ]
Palin looks like a bad pick (4.00 / 5)
McCain refused CNN tonight, claiming Campbell Brown crossed the line when questioning Tucker Bounds about Palin.  Obama needs to pressure the MSM over their campaign coverage, although not in the public way pursued by Team McCain.  

Obama has been the subject of intense media scrutiny since Iowa, ostensibly because people need to get acquainted with his policies, past record, personality and family history.  Even though coverage has skewed heavily towards sensationalist pulp - flag pins, Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, "race card" questions - Obama himself has conceded that since he's unknown the extra, albeit largely negative, coverage is legitimate.

Here comes Sarah Palin, chosen not after a grueling 16 month primary in which nearly well over 30 million citizens cast their vote, but to buoy the sinking campaign of 72 year old, 4 time cancer survivor, and, lest we forget, former POW John McCain by reestablishing his credentials as a maverick.  Yet McCain won't let the MSM so much as ask a spokesman for his campaign to defend his characterization of her credentials by supplying a piece of simple data.

Not even the MSM will stand for this, folks.  McCain's trying to tell them the tabloid political story of the year is off limits.   I'd be surprised if team Obama wasn't working the refs, in its own respectful, behind the scenes way.  With all the soap this story will sell, I don't think the MSM will cave and softball Palin's personal and political scandals.  Brown defended her questions well when Bounds grew petulant and cried foul.

All this leads me to think that no amount of public empathy will outweigh the vexing questions surrounding her elevation to potential VP.  There are too many veins in this mine that have yet to be tapped, and two months is a very short time in which to do it.  I do think she'll stay in, if only to mobilize the evangelical vote for downticket races.

I wonder... (4.00 / 8)

 The aristocrats never really liked the fundies. They just liked their votes.

 But now there's someone on the ticket who's 100% fundie -- and that might be scaring even the oligarchs. Having a complete incompetent in the White House is NOT good for business.

  So this might be why the media's finally showing a few teeth with McCain. On convention week, no less. The oligarchs might have reconciled themselves to the idea of an Obama presidency as actually preferable to a McCain one.

  If there's anything the investing class hates, it's instability. And McCain's been showing way too much of that.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
That's an even more fundamental reason (0.00 / 0)
why picking Palin was a horrible move.  

How much can FOX news and David Gregory really do to expand the appeal of a candidate like Palin beyond fundies?

[ Parent ]
Dead on (4.00 / 5)
He's losing the media, this wasn't a pick to reassure the business types either.  It suggests that McCain wouldn't be as easy to control as they may have thought. Obama and especially Biden, a known quantity who by all accounts is getting along well with Obama, must look more and more reassuring.  unfortunately, while thatmight appear to create a mandate, it wouldn't necessarily be for progressive policies.  Unless we get a Nixon-goes-to-China on healthcare reform.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
How can business types depend (0.00 / 0)
on a woman like Palin to sell their legislative products?
[ Parent ]
heh, the thing about that (4.00 / 5)
McCain refused CNN tonight, claiming Campbell Brown crossed the line when questioning Tucker Bounds about Palin.

We DFHs were already watching that clip and praising how Brown pressed Bounds to actually cite a decision Palin made as Alaska CinC, and he couldn't.  

Now that McCain has made a hissy about it, waaay more people will watch that clip and see the air taken out of Palin's sails and McCain look like a whiner.

I can only think it was either his temper or that he simply can't take any questions right now because he has no earthly idea what to do - keep or ditch Palin?  So this is a play for time away from the press.

[ Parent ]
McCain's only chance to win (4.00 / 5)
was to make this election a reforendum on Barack Obama.  Now it's all about Sarah Palin and whether we are comfortable with her as next in line to a 72 year-old cancer survivor.  McCain has undercut his message big time.  I don't see how he can recover from this.
4 (0.00 / 0)
I think that's the most insightful thing I've read all day. (And I have the day off.)
[ Parent ]
The AP does it again (4.00 / 1)
The stated goal of the AIP is to have a vote on succession.  See http://www.akip.org/

"The Alaskan Independence Party's goal is the vote we were entitled to in 1958, one choice from among the following four alternatives: 1) Remain a Territory. 2) Become a separate and Independent Nation. 3) Accept Commonwealth status. 4) Become a State."

The AP's latest article essentially denies that is one of AIP's goals.  See http://news.yahoo.com/story/ap...

The AP article also states that Palin supported Forbes in 2000, not Buchanan.  They offer no proof or sources, and fail to mention the report that she was seen wearing a Buchanan button.

The AP has gone beyond favorable coverage; now they are simply parroting false McCain talking points without any fact checking or statements from other sources.

AP Is Dying (4.00 / 2)
The writing has been on the wall for a while now.  (More and more papers are dropping them, though it takes 2 years advance notice.)

But, just like McCain, they seem to be in a hurry toward self-destruction.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Buchanan button added to story (0.00 / 0)
Since I first posted, the AP added an explanation of the Buchanan button.
[ Parent ]
I don't want to get too sanguine (0.00 / 0)
Palin will almost certainly come across well tomorrow night, which will offset at least some of the bad press from this past week. That should tighten things up somewhat.

But over the course of the campaign, is she going to be able to speak extemporaneously with poise and demonstrate a breadth and depth of knowledge in policy matters? I'd bet not. And a media that's jumped all over her to this extent already is a cinch to jump all over her again if she starts making gaffes. A short-term McCain/Palin recovery is probable, but I don't see one in the long term. This was the worst pick he could have made even assuming they considered a woman on the ticket to be necessary.

Palin only obtained a passport last year (0.00 / 0)
How can Sen. McCain ever again make the case against Obama on experience/foreign policy grounds when his own running mate didn't have a passport until July 2007? This Palin pick is the gift to Democrats that just keeps on giving.
Anyone hear Palin's speech to the 2008 AK Independence Party Convention? (0.00 / 0)
I think it speaks for itself
http://www.akip.org/conv08.html

She shares their values.

Don't know if she could be prosecuted for sedition or treason for a speech like that -

but if it were a Democratic VP, we'd sure be hearing those types of calls from the Rethugs.

I knew it! (0.00 / 0)
I was cheering when I heard McCain picked Palin. I knew that all my undecided friends would run to Obama. And they have. Nothing like an inexperienced extremist in Palin to help give us the boost.  
The Manchurian Conception (0.00 / 0)
So Palin seems particularly fecund. Just sayin.
Afternoon Bounce / Palin Crash Update | 86 comments





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