Thursday Evening Convention Round-up Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 19:30


Random thoughts for a Thursday evening, as the convention and vice-presidential season draw to a close:

  • Two focus groups of independents and undecideds did not like Palin's speech. The groups were conducted in Michigan and Nevada, respectively. So far, I haven't seen any reports of focus groups that liked Palin's speech.

  • There seems to be an absolute ceiling of about, or just over, 6% for Obama's national lead. No matter what has happened in this campaign, he has been unable to beat that number. There also seems to be a natural, absolute floor of about, or just less than, a 2% deficit. That a campaign with this many emotional highs and lows, twists and turns, comings and goings, has never wavered from this fairly narrow, 8% range, strikes me as important. I highly doubt that the campaign ever will move outside that range, and that the final results will be somewhere from a 6% Obama victory to a 2% McCain victory.

  • The amount of attention that Palin is attracting is, with the exception of Barack Obama himself, unlike anything I have ever seen before in politics (I only started paying attention to politics at the age of 10 in 1984, so that is my frame of reference). Not only did she nearly match Obama's viewers last night, but even blogosphere traffic went through the roof with her selection. The last three days have been the biggest days of traffic for Daily Kos ever, including Election Day 2004. At Open Left, our traffic is the equal of our best days ever, the ten day stretch from February 3rd through February 13th (Super Tuesday through Donna Edwards). Obama's news conference was entirely about Palin. Really, it seems that everyone is obsessed with Palin right now.

  • I had my doubts before, but now with Palin and the huge number of people watching both conventions, I am convinced this is going to be a very high turnout election. The Democratic base has also been massively energized by their opposition to Palin, as Obama is on track to raise $10M today alone.

  • McCain has been thoroughly overshadowed by his running mate. It is hard for me to see how that is good for him. I think he went way too far in the "balance" direction, and will come off as old, crusty, worn-out and uninspiring tonight. There is something very "Kerry-Edwards" about the Republican convention this year, from the flashy running mate to the constant harping on being a veteran. If McCain gets shown up by Palin, how will anyone end up voting for him? All Palin does is reinforce Obama.

Even though the tracking polls will be better for McCain tomorrow (and the new, weird, CBS tracking poll already is), that is mostly because Monday's great numbers for Obama will be removed. I'm not sold that this convention will help him. From focus groups not liking Palin, to downplaying issues and keeping a Kerry-like focus on being a war hero, to being shown up by his running mate, and to really everyone at this convention except Palin being a bad speaker, this entire affair might not age well for McCain over the coming several weeks.

This is an open thread on tonight's speeches.  

Chris Bowers :: Thursday Evening Convention Round-up Thread

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Thursday Evening Convention Round-up Thread | 53 comments
Debates. (4.00 / 2)
The debates will, I think, give us more concrete indicators of public opinion. For one thing, they're one-night affairs, which makes the polling fallout easy to track. And we'll finally see the two sides face to face. I think all the one-sided pageantry is making for a lot of sound and fury in the polling averages, signifying little. I sincerely hope that Obama will blow McCain away; I hope Biden doesn't overstep during the VP debate, which should be a big attraction if convention coverage is any indicator.
Also: (4.00 / 1)
Before everyone freaks out about the CBS poll, notice that McCain didn't really move up - just some Obama-leaning swing voters went back into the undecided column; they won't stay there for long. McCain isn't cracking any big leads so far, and that's worrisome for him. I think indies just aren't buying this Palin thing, as Matt noted.
[ Parent ]
I don't think its even that. They just undersampled Dems. (4.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
Here's hoping.... (0.00 / 0)
....the crazy old man drops a bomb tonight.
Great minds (0.00 / 0)
Can't argue with any of that. I've been saying all along the max is probably 53-47 (same as Clinton versus Bush minus Perot) and that if McCain were to win he won't do better than Bush did in 2004.

On Palinmania. I don't think it has quite reached the level of the Lewinsky scandal. Or OJ. Or even Chandra Levy to some extent. But perhaps being mentioned in the same breath says something about how remarkable the situation is.

Well, Chris did say 'in politics.' (0.00 / 0)
Otherwise Anna Nicole Smith still wins.
[ Parent ]
Oh, ok (4.00 / 1)
Two outta three ain't bad!
[ Parent ]
You gotta remember .. (4.00 / 1)
before last Friday ... only serious political junkies knew who Palin was ... Biden wasn't an out of left field type of choice .. so people are trying to find out about her
[ Parent ]
Obama's advantage is tempered (4.00 / 2)
by the GOTV challenges.  I'd like to know what innovative efforts are out there to make sure that high-risk elements of the Obama support actually show up.  High-risk include blacks, youth, and first time voters....

QT

Visit the Obama Project


WindOnWater.net



Haven't voting already begun in Ohio? (4.00 / 1)
That's a v. important question, but far more important in some states than others. I  believe, though could easily be wrong, that early voting started ... this week? In a few places?

Looking for a link.

[ Parent ]
Any Hackers among Us... (0.00 / 0)
It would be great to get into their computer and change the background on stage to green.  Now, that's change you can believe in.
Funny (0.00 / 0)
When McCain was stumbling over his words from the teleprompter, my wife and I joked that it would have been a better speech if someone had loaded Palin's speech into the computer instead.

Even with the low expectations the GOP was pitching for McCain's oratory skills, this speech was dull as processed white bread.

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

[ Parent ]
Survey USA (4.00 / 1)
tells a different story about the Palin effect. Make of this what you will, but given that people in these part were, as of 24 hours ago, giddy with the possibility that she'd bring down McCain, you have no choice but to consider the speech a success.

Palin Speech Moves Independents: Results of two nationwide polls conducted by SurveyUSA show Sarah Palin's speech at the Republican National Convention on the evening of 09/03/08 has helped the McCain campaign.

24 hours ago, independent voters nationwide were split on whether Palin was an asset or a liability to McCain's campaign. Today, by a 2:1 margin, independents say Palin is an asset. Overnight, the percentage calling the Alaska governor an asset to the campaign climbed 13 points; the percentage calling her a liability fell 17 points.

The numbers are similar among moderates, who 24 hours ago viewed Palin as a liability by an 11 point margin; today, Palin is seen as an asset by an 18 point margin.
Betting Line Changes: 24 hours ago, when asked if they would bet on Obama or McCain becoming president, Obama was a 16:15 favorite; today, it's flipped, and McCain is favored by the same ratio.

Grading The Speech: Of those who watched Palin speak last night, 60% give the speech a grade of "A." When those giving lower grades are factored in and a standard grade point average computed on a 4-point scale, Palin scores a "B," overall. Among Republicans, she gets an "A-;" among Independents, a solid "B;" among Democrats, a "C"

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...


What about actual support? (4.00 / 2)
The language you quote seems to be just an indication on the effect voters think Palin will have, which is not necessarily the same thing as a statement of personal support.
[ Parent ]
That's a good question. (4.00 / 2)
Many Democrats who'd never vote McCain/Palin now think she's an asset. Fortunately, many of them have been frightened into donating to Obama, too.
[ Parent ]
Well, right (4.00 / 1)
No too much should be made of these numbers, not least because VP candidates have limited ability to win the votes of people in the middle. I think we can say, though, that the base loves her and other people (independents gave the speech a B) aren't as turned off as they should be.
[ Parent ]
I will wait until next week to see what the fall out is (4.00 / 2)

[ Parent ]
Likewise with the viewership numbers (4.00 / 1)
The fact that she drew nearly as many viewers as Obama isn't necessarily reflective of support.  I know I watched her snidely attack (for as long as I could stand it, anyway).

On the other hand, the same can be said for Obama's acceptance - a big chunk of his viewers were no doubt engaged republiks.

[ Parent ]
I think she's an asset to him. And I hate her. (0.00 / 0)

 She's certainly gotten the wingnuts fired up. He needed that.

 The problem, for us, is that the media has granted her absolution from her scandals and controversies, which were the basis for figuring that she was a drag on the ticket.

 If we had an honest media, McCain would be toast.

 That said, if the election re-orients to a presidential battle and the focus rolls off Palin once the buzz wears off, Obama should be able to regain his footing.

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
My first time watching O'Reilly for more than 10 seconds (0.00 / 0)
I admit it; I'm going to watch Obama on O'Reilly tonight.

But I plan to take a shower afterwards.

Are you ready for some football? (4.00 / 2)
It didn't occur to me until earlier today, but I find it incredibly... what's the word?... silly for the Republicans to put their final day up against the NFL opening night. McCain's audience will not only be smaller, but the people that he's likely to be losing are precisely those low information Republican-leaning men that so much of his campaign seems to have been targeting.

So which came first, the convention or the opening night? Will it matter? If it does I can't see how it could possibly be for the better.

My hope is for an overtime game... (4.00 / 1)
...going well into McCain's speech.

Self-refuting Christine O'Donnell is proof monkeys are still evolving into humans
[ Parent ]
So what happens now? (0.00 / 0)

 The media narrative around Palin has now (surprise) switched to a positive one -- despite the fact that her scandals, her irregularities, her lies, and her wingnuttery are every bit as real and relevant today as they were two days ago. You knew the media wouldn't let its masters down.

 How does this affect the race from this point on? Does the initial buzz fade and we're back to a presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain, with Palin receding into a Geraldine Ferraro-like curiosity? Or does the rest of the election season become a Daily Palin, with doting media coverage of her sucking all of the oxygen from the real contest?

 I don't know how long novelties tend to last, but if September and October are all about Palin, we could be in some real trouble. The Dems could attack her continuously and effectively, and nobody would care because it's no longer about issues.

 If any Dem politician could overcome this kind of paradigm shift, it would be Barack Obama. But it would be MUCH better if we just re-focused on the matchup that counts. If we had an honest media, I wouldn't be worried.

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

Isn't the conventional wisdom (4.00 / 3)
that if the McCain campaign can make this election all about Obama, they might win?

Seems to me that even if Pailin is portrayed glowingly (which I think isn't the case), this attention prevents the sorta sustained viciousness against Obama that the Rs need to win.

[ Parent ]
Think: Oliver North (4.00 / 4)

 The guy funneled WMD's to an enemy of the US, and he became a folk hero to conservatives.

 Palin is that, on a different level. She's an absolutely odious person, but she comes across as something she isn't. And the wingers lap it up.

 My one solace is that North lost his election. But that was a couple of years after the buzz around him faded. We might not have any such luck with Palin.

  I'm extremely concerned. A LOT depends on the Dems' messaging from this point on.

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
Palin is the new new (4.00 / 1)
This is a phenom. I don't know what it does to actual vote tallies, especially with the DOW tanking today, but Palin is never going to go away. We will spend the next 20 years with this woman!

Seriously I don't know if she moves undecideds or soft support. Will people be more likely to vote for McCain because of her? The bases are revved up, no doubt, and that is a net gain for the Republicans, because our base was already excited.

I think we will get a clear picture of where the race is in Monday tracking polls. Both sides will have had their conventions and we will see what the natural lay of the land  for the battle to come. If McCain is ahead on Monday, this is going to be a real fight. After all the re-alignment talk in the Spring, it just seems like wishful pie-in0the-sky talk now.  

[ Parent ]
Methinks she will not age well (0.00 / 0)
The better the public knows her actual record (as opposed to  hard and fast positions, which she apparently lacks, a la Mittens) the less attractive she will become.
[ Parent ]
McCain has been thoroughly overshadowed by his running mate. (4.00 / 1)
"McCain has been thoroughly overshadowed by his running mate. It is hard for me to see how that is good for him."

I don't see how that could be bad for him. McCain has no pizzazz. Palin does. Just like you may invite a couple over to dinner because one - and only one - of them is great company, you will get voters showing up to vote for Palin and that white haired dude. What was his name, again?

I saw her acceptance speech today, and from a purely political point of view, it seemed marvelous. Certainly, her timing and poise were impeccable. She also communicates a certain enthusiam, even if it's a bit affected, like a cheerleader or airline stewardess. We all know that political affiliations are a lot like falling in love. If you have any tendency to resonate with her "message", at all, then I can see you falling in love, and overlooking whatever lies and obfuscations that she will resort to.

She's also a big plus in terms of neutralizing Obama's "change" message. (Not that she didn't have help from Obama, himself. Oh, but why talk about his string of mistakes since he clinched the nomination?) She's certainly not your standard, Washington insider!

IMO, she is a big enough positive to the McCain campaign that her lies and obfuscations should be vigorously debunked, along with McCain's.

It's a shame that the Democrats didn't focus on running against the Republican Party, as a whole, as much as they did running against McCain, the individual. She has some of the same ruinous tendencies to borrow money shamelessly as Washington Republicans do, but only to blabber about cutting taxes. (In other words, she's a fraud who will be happy to transfer taxes from you to your children.) Thus, had the Democrats done the sort of spadework that they should have done, they now could have more easily framed her as yet another "borrow and spend Republican".

I suppose it's not too late to go down that road, now, even if it won't be as effective. However, I don't have much faith in the Democratic Party, not even as politicians, and so expect them either to make the Presidential race much closer than it ever should have been, or else even lose.

Of course, if Obama and his Democratic buddies should decide to run against the entire Republican party, they need to also frame them as the incompetents who couldn't even prepare for a hurricane that you could see from outer space. Nor prepare for a war properly. Nor for the war's aftermath. Etc., etc.

Not sure how Palin's record on the state and local level ties in via this angle, but I doubt that McCain's is anything to brag about.  

435 Dem Primaries 2012
Coffee Party Usa
TheRealNews.Com

The Height of Palin (4.00 / 2)
I think that TODAY was the height of Palinamia. She was chosen out of the blue on Friday, which made her an immediate source of great attention to the media, which initially jumped on her scandals, painting her as the "bad girl." Then, when the chips were down, she comes through with the speech of a lifetime, according to the media, thus becoming the underdog triumphing against all odds, which is the narrative the media loves to manufacture. (Of course her speech was good--did people think she was going to show up drunk and fall off the podium?) However, tonight McCain will give his speech, which will put Palin on the back burner.

Going forward, one of two things happen: either she assumes the traditional VP role, which means, outside of the one VP debate and some attack stuff, she will become mostly a non-story. Or, she continues to be a story, which means she is generating scandal, ala Ferraro in 1984.

Don't forget--even if McCain had picked a traditional VP, this was still going to be the Republican's week no matter what. Typically, each party gets a bounce from their convention, and then the real election season starts.  

[ Parent ]
I hope you're right (4.00 / 2)

 A couple of "buts":

 1. Palin's more charismatic than Ferraro was/is.

 2. When a person becomes an instant celebrity, he or she often goes through a period in which everything is spun positively. Palin's scandals? She's a barracuda! Palin's lies? She's rough-and-tumble! Palin's family issues? She's just like us!

 It only needs to last two months. I hope the Dems are ready.

 Oh, a strong Hillary presence would not be unwelcome. My hope is that the Obama campaign has a narrative-changer lined up for tomorrow. They've done that before.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
I hope I'm right too... (4.00 / 2)
I just think that things can't get any better for her than they are right at this moment. Other than the debate with Biden, she will never again have an audience of nearly 40 million watching her, and I can't see how she is going to do anything during the campaign that is going to get her more positive attention than the speech did last night.

She either becomes neutral or a drag on the Republican ticket.

[ Parent ]
They're playing footloose (4.00 / 2)
Do they have no sense of irony about dancing to the theme song of a movie which entails a city slicker coming to a small town and overthrowing the preacher's prohibition on dancing with his moxie and pluck?
Ugh, O'Reilly (0.00 / 0)
Alright,

I just watched Obama on O'Reilly.  This was literally the first time I've ever seen O'Reilly interview anyone.

It was pretty revolting.  The guy refused to allow Obama a chance to explain his answers.  

Oh, well.  Nothing of moment really happened.

And he's spreading it out over 4 days (0.00 / 0)
Pretty lame...showing 5-10 minutes at a time?
[ Parent ]
Obama moves right - again. (0.00 / 0)
Here he is on O'Reilly:

"I think that the surge has succeeded in ways that nobody anticipated," Obama told O'Reilly of President Bush's decision last year to increase troop levels. "It's succeeded beyond our wildest dreams."

and - back to this again:

He said he would "never take military action off the table" in the case of Iran. "It is unacceptable for Iran to possess a nuclear weapon; it would be a game changer," Obama said.

Add to that his reference to confronting "Russian aggression", and his brave suggestion to women who are looking for someone to champion abortion rights that they avoid unwanted pregnancies, and we have a real winner.

Inspiring, ain't it?

I'm at the point... (4.00 / 2)

 ...where I just want Obama in there, whatever his rhetoric, if only to keep Palin safely in Alaska. No politician has ever frightened me as much. Bush, maybe -- and we saw how that worked out.

  That said, I fail to see what he gains with this kind of talk. Or by appearing on O'Reilly to begin with.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
That kind of talk... (0.00 / 0)
What Obama is trying to gain by that type of talk is the votes of people who think differently than progressives. They think like Bush.
That is whom he is courting with this aggressive b.s.

He has two faces.

Sorry, but it's true.

Think about the fact that this guy could actually go and campaign for Lieberman. The reason he did that is the same reason he spouts jingoistic garbage to right-wingers. He is ambitious.

[ Parent ]
The surge I don't know about (4.00 / 2)
but no American President can ever say " I am taking the possibility of military action off the table." It was be a diplomatic mistake.  
[ Parent ]
Not fair (0.00 / 0)
What I saw was O'Reilly continually cutting off Obama before he could put any context into his answers.  The comment about "success" was clearly meant to refer to a limited, military result, and even that was linked to other circumstances.  I don't think it's fair to suggest that Obama was really moving his position here.

The stuff about abortion was not aired tonight, so I don't know what happened there.

[ Parent ]
Actually yes (0.00 / 0)
he knows where the public is. Face it, they see the surge as a success and that's why McCain wins on the issue and now it's up to Obama to use that to make the case that the war needs to end

and no President can ever EVER take military action off the table. You're ridiculous if you think they should. What happens if Iran sinks our naval fleet in the Persian Gulf or something? you think Obama should just go to Tehran and ask Admadinijad to nicely apologize?  

[ Parent ]
Military action. (0.00 / 0)
Nobody is asking Obama to take military action off any table.
It is a straw man.
He is using the phrase with respect to Iran.
We don't need this flag waving Bush-like bull.
[ Parent ]
So why are you criticizing it? (0.00 / 0)
He was asked if he would ever pursue military action against Iran and he said yes. What's the big deal? There might be a situation in which he has to use military action against Iran. I thought of one. Doesn't mean he's going to make it a first option or threaten it every chance he gets like McCain will.

[ Parent ]
Overheated (4.00 / 2)
This race is a marathon, not a sprint. Even though McCain closed the gap in the CBS poll, he's still at 42%.  
Wow, Lindsey Graham explicitly playing the traitor card (0.00 / 0)
It's really pretty disgusting.
i think this is good for mccain (4.00 / 1)
he wasn't going to win an election against obama in this climate.  So they're going to run palin against obama and see if she can do better.  She's the bizarro Clinton.

It probably won't work, but I do think she's adding to his ticket, at least in terms of his base.  And in four years?  Wouldn't be shocking.

Blog Traffic (0.00 / 0)
Firedoglake has been down all day for me. I don't know if that has been the the case all over, but if it has I think that would be one reason why Kos and Open Left and others have experienced some of the high traffic that they've experienced.
FDL is having problems .. (0.00 / 0)
have been since last night ... I don't know what the problem is ... but I've been told they are working on it .. I was asked to be patient
[ Parent ]
self serving biography film (0.00 / 0)
Did they just highlight the fact that when John met Cindy, they both lied to each other about their ages.

Ok, so they're liars.  Good bio guys.

And oh yeah, John was married when he met her but that was conveniently omitted.

Cindy: "Our Heritage" (0.00 / 0)
Racist dogwhistle?
Point Two (0.00 / 0)
Chris, point two hits on one of my favorite themes in your writings - the view of understanding elections through the prism of how various demographics vote.  In general, white Christians being heavily and consistently R - everyone else being heavily and consistently D.  We see closer elections in recent years, compared to past decades, solely because there is now a greater percentage of others.  In your recent article in The Nation you predict this will not be a realignment election and Obama will win because others now make up a greater percentage than white Christians.  Given your analysis, which seems very sound to me, shouldn't we expect a relatively close election.  In fact, shouldn't we expect something much closer than 6%.  If Obama does actually win by 6%, that would constitute a 9% swing from four years ago.  I'm not sure what the percentage-swing definition is for a change election, but a 9% swing would fit my definition of realignment.  Based on your analysis in The Nation, we should be expecting a relative tie, perhaps a meager 1-2 point Obama win at the most.  The current 2 to 6 point ObamaMcCain spread seems to indicate this will be the most likely outcome.   I guess I only point this out because lots of people seem to be worried we're not walking away with this, but as I said - I like your analysis in The Nation and I think we're seeing it play out in this election.  The large win we all want this time around will come eventually.
ick (0.00 / 0)
others are going to win not white christians?

geepers sorry do you mean a poarticular set of "white christians?" do you mean like Maine? where all the white christians support Obama, or do you mean the white christians of Washington, or the white christians of North Dakoda?

Or do you mean the white christians of Iowa?

Because Obama is well ahead in them all.

McCain is going to loose not because Americans are others, or white christians or not, they are removing Republicans because no one believes that the party who created this crisis is the one to get us out.

The Republicans are done because they serve something other than the country, greed. It's not only others that recognized that.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky

[ Parent ]
Do really believe that... (0.00 / 0)
"...no one believes that the party who created this crisis is the one to get us out."  I certainly agree with you that the Rs are not the ones to get us out of this mess, but I'm willing to bet that come election day somewhere around 48-50% of the country will disagree with you and vote McCain, although I hope I'm wrong.  Perhaps the view I detailed is icky and cynical, but I generally buy into it.  As I said, Chris has been writing about this for a while.  His article in The Nation doesn't exactly say white Christians versus others, but he does say that elections since 1968 have been decided by swing voters who are "overwhelmingly white, not very urban, heavily blue-collar, generally Southern and always socially conservative."  Sounds very white Christian to me.  Chris also states in that article "Obama will receive pretty much the same percentage of support from virtually all demographic groups that previous, defeated Democratic nominees such as Michael Dukakis and John Kerry received. The difference will be that, in 2008, those groups will be large enough to win a national election."  He explicitly says that, unlike Carter and Clinton, Obama is not going to win significantly higher percentages of these conservative Christian white voters.  Instead, Obama will probably do as well among these groups as all the failed Dem nominees from the past 40 years, yet he will still win.  Again, I can see how this causes you revulsion, but I don't see any evidence for you analysis that everyone is going to flee the R party and vote for Obama based on reason.  I think Chris' analysis in The Nation is probably going to play out, and this will be a close election with Obama winning.  
[ Parent ]
Obama needs 6-8 point lead to overcome Bradley effect (0.00 / 0)
Unlike the primary there will be one in the general election. He can't just lead a little before election day...he neeeds a lot.

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller
Thursday Evening Convention Round-up Thread | 53 comments
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