It's Worthwhile To Ask If We Can Do Anything To Accelerate The Process (0.00 / 0)

Off-hand it would appear that we can in at least three ways:

(1) Assisting in candidate recruitment.

(2) Building up oppositional infrastrcuture.  Starting blogs or contributing to existing ones. Starting up challenger funds to attract potential challengers, etc.

(3) Raising the costs of continuing on.  This can include work on documenting involvement in scandals, support for racist organizations, etc., as well as developing lists of questions for reporters to ask based on the research.  The more unpleasant a possibly unsuccessful re-election campaign looks to be, the more likely they are to withdraw.

The point of all this, of course, is that it's much easier to run against non-incumbents.  And the more easy pickup chances we have, the better we're likely to do.  But there's also a multiplier effect.  The more easy races we have, the more hard ones they have, and the more opportunity we have to spend resources to make new seats competetive.

This is a game where the earlier things happen, the more consequences they bring with them, so the earlier we act, the better.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Wed Aug 15, 2007 at 19:49:14 PM UTC

And as you glancingly said, (4.00 / 1)

the easiest way to open up seats is to dig into the details and expose individual corruption.  Unearthing corrupt activity singlehandedly gave us the seats of Bob Ney, Tom DeLay, Conrad Burns, Curt Weldon, and Charles Taylor.  Personal scandal (sexual or racist) gave us Mark Foley, John Sweeney, Don Sherwood, and George Allen.  Every one of those seats were completely unwinnable had the corruption not been exposed (save for John Sweeney's seat), and not only did we get them all, mostly in easy campaigns, but the extensive news coverage they received, and the contagion effect on some of their colleagues, helped us win other seats as well as theirs.  (Mike DeWine and Sue Kelly come to mind.)

In this cycle, we're already looking at Charlie Doolittle, Rick Renzi, Ted Stevens, Don Young, Gary Miller, Jerry Lewis, Heather Wilson, Pete Domenici, and I think someone in central PA as having corruption problems.  A good research effort would turn up a lot more than just that.  I must admit that most of those were unearthed by prosecutorial effort, I think, but I know Gary Miller and Lisa Murkowski were not, and Duke Cunningham was discovered by a journalist too (presumably without CIA tips).

Anyway, corruption makes for excellent national press AND lots of wounded incumbents and open seats we wouldn't otherwise get.  Obviously, it would be completely unethical to pull a Siegelman or a Biskupic -- to air and run on trumped up empty "corruption" charges -- but where there's real dirt, there is a massive payoff to finding and exposing it.

Not to mention, corrupt Congressmen wtf.

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by: texas dem @ Wed Aug 15, 2007 at 20:37:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

New Ethics rules will hasten retirements (0.00 / 0)

Assuming Bush signs the new ethics law when it is submitted  in September, that should be worth another 10+ seats.  Those fancy perks are going to be gone next year.  Who wants to be in the minority with fewer chances to enjoy the lavish life?

And, of course, things look dicey for Stevens and Young in AK, and several others already mentioned.  Age will take Ralph Regula and a few others. 

We do need candidate recruitment, especially of progressive and public-minded candidates, and especially in the districts of the aged and/or ethically challenged.

Generally, candidate recruitment depends on a party's prospects 12-15 months before the election.  Things look pretty good now, so some good Dems should step up. 

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

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by: Mimikatz @ Wed Aug 15, 2007 at 21:47:38 PM UTC

3 of 4 (0.00 / 0)

In about a year, Republicans in the House have lost three of the top four from their leadershio team: Tom DeLay, Denny Hastert and Deb Pryce.  Can John Boehner be far behind?

They've also lost Bob Ney, Sherwood Boehlert, Henry Hyde, Rick Santorum, George Allen, Jim Leach, Rick Nussle and a bunch of others.  Many of these were committee chairs or prominent in leadership.

If they are heading for the gravy train Joe barton would be next.  Looking to hide?  Probably Ted Stevens or Jerry Lewis.  Can't stand the pain?  John Warner.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Aug 16, 2007 at 01:18:03 AM UTC