The Obama Campaign Is Out of Our Hands

by: Matt Stoller

Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 00:07


Chris thinks 'we' should take McCain seriously versus Palin.  I agree, as McCain in at least one poll is leading by 10 points among likely voters (probably an outlier but not a happy one).  I think McCain's going to die fairly soon, (why else would they hide his medical records) and if McCain wins we'll be dealing with a President Palin and a soon-to-be thoroughly devastated country (picture a 7-2 majority of Alito-style judges on SCOTUS for starters).  My problem is the adjective 'we'.  What me, Jane Hamsher, Chris Bowers, or any aggregation of lots of grasstops says doesn't matter compared to Joe Biden's sickening praise of John McCain.
Matt Stoller :: The Obama Campaign Is Out of Our Hands
John McCain is my friend," said the loquacious Blue Hen. "I admire John McCain. I know of no man or woman I have ever met that has more personal courage than John McCain. We have been friends for over 33 years. We have traveled together. When John was Navy liaison he staffed me for three or four years everywhere I traveled in the world."

And it gets worse.  If you want to be further annoyed by Biden, check out this headline in the NYT: As a Matter of Faith, Biden Says Life Begins at Conception.  

I'd say Biden's off message, but maybe he's not.  It's hard to tell these days.  Incidentally, since Obama won the primary, I've pointed out that Obama said thanks but no thanks to any help except very specific type of voter registration work and field organizing.  That's fine.  But it's no use assigning blame or praising people for a lack of message or great messaging work unless you are looking to people who have control over that message.

I've rarely seen praise for anyone but the Obama campaign for what they are doing right.  And it wouldn't make sense either.  The convention had beautiful spectacle, but none of us had anything to do with it.  We are just outside observers who can volunteer and do GOTV work and occasionally push something into the mainstream (as the netroots did with McCain's housing gaffe).

But as with the housing gaffe, when the campaign decides to drop it, there is no going back.  It's all up to them.  

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The Obama Campaign Is Out of Our Hands | 83 comments
Well it's nice to know you are as powerless as the rest of us (4.00 / 1)
But I thought you were more well connected than that. I feel like Dorothy pulling back the curtin. Asking myself- What do I do next?
Well if you live in Virginia (4.00 / 1)
I think it's pretty clear what you do next. Don't you?
[ Parent ]
I don;t live in virginia anymore (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
well shoot (0.00 / 0)
you in a non-swing state now?
[ Parent ]
This is the problem... (4.00 / 9)
"We are just outside observers who can volunteer and do GOTV work and occasionally push something into the mainstream."

While the Republicans kowtow to their conservative base--which is why Palin was the VP pick--we, who are for all intents and purposes the base of the Democratic Party, are basically told to f--- off by our presidential nominee. And despite this kind of treatment, Obama and Co. know that we will still support him and work to get him elected. I realize that an election season is not the time to fix this, but until the Democrats treat their liberal base as something to be catered to--or, even better, something to be feared--the Republicans/Conservatives will continue to set the tone for the debate in this country.

[ Parent ]
Our chance to do this was during the primaries (4.00 / 8)
But rather than dare to make demands upon them, we instead decided to talk about how 'historically strong' our field was, and how much we loved all of the candidates.  
[ Parent ]
I hope they figure a way out of this mess... (4.00 / 1)
...They obviously were not prepared for McSame to pick a woman VP... which is ridiculous!  I knew they wanted to do that for weeks, if not months!  It was obvious, considering how they were playing for the disaffected Hillary vote...

When I first saw that a private plane was being tracked from Alaska to Ohio that fateful Thursday night, my jubilation at the greatest convention speech ever turned into morbid dread.  I feared we lost the election that night, and nothing, yet, has changed my mind...

Plouffe and Axelrod better figure out how to get things back on track fast, or this thing will start snowballing out of control...

I would like to hear from them to get their perspective on things... if they are still sounding positive, then I will be pleased... if they are not giving words of encouragement, then we may truly be sunk...

I hope they know what they are doing this time around... this is truly uncharted territory...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

let's see what the state polls have to say (4.00 / 10)
before we get too panicky.

Remember, they have their reasons for completely disregarding the tracking polls which we obsess about. They don't matter to them, and they shouldn't. Who knows where the 10 point lead in that gallup poll is coming from? If it's all southern white guys all of a sudden getting all excited about voting for McCain, well, then they are really adding much to the election anyway right? They were already going to vote for McCain. It's just that now they're enthusiastic about it (for the time being).

The way we get out of this is for each and every one of us to do our part. Matt seems to pooh-pooh that in his post. Like he's a little disappointed that all the Obama campaign wants us to do is field work and voter reg. But that's the most important thing we can do! Door-to-door canvassing results in a 12% increase in voter participation for the candidate. It's that simple. If you're worried about things, get out there and volunteer. If you don't live in a swing state, donate money or do virtual phone-banking. This shit ain't rocket science. It's what we have to do to win this thing.

The pollsters are still probably trying to get their likely voter screens right. They have no f*cking clue to what degree young people and infrequent voters are going to turn out in this election. It's up to us to work as hard as we can to turn out all our supporters and all the young people.

Organizing may be unglamorous, and we all may want to work on campaign messaging or push-back, but really, doing the unglamorous stuff is the most important and valuable thing we can do to get Obama elected.

[ Parent ]
Problem is... (4.00 / 1)
...if those infrequent voters think that the race isn't close anymore, they will just stay home and not bother...

These polls are important, since they establish a narrative.... if the numbers continue to look bad, the blowout on their side is going to be even worse, 'cos our team decided to stay home...

We have to do a better job of messaging right now... we just HAVE to!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
How do you think we keep those voters interested? (4.00 / 1)
You talk to them face-to-face!

I highly doubt you're going to have much of an impact on Obama's messaging. What you WILL have an impact on is those voters you meet and talk to and dispel any lies or false narratives that are out there.  

[ Parent ]
They better ... (4.00 / 2)
or else they'll be just like Bob Shrum & Mark Penn
[ Parent ]
Funny thing is.... (4.00 / 2)
....if Penn were running the Obama campaign, I'd say it'd be no-holds-barred attack-attack-attack.  It is what he advised HRC to do, but for whatever reason his advice was not followed.  They pulled their punches.

Ironic.

[ Parent ]
If Penn was running... (4.00 / 7)
...Obama's campaign, they would be focused on NYC, LA, San Fran, Park City, Chicago, etc etc...running up the score to win the popular vote.

Shortly after the election, someone would inform Mr. Penn that in the Presidential election, only Electoral votes matter, 3 million extra votes in California don't net any extra EV's...running up the score in Park City won't offset the rest of Utah (minus east/northeast SLC) voting 85% republican straight tickets...

Focus on the micro level, pick a Congressional District in a "swing state" and help that candidate net an extra 2000-20,000 votes for both him/herself and Obama/Biden.  Stop allowing people to convince you that the national polling matters, every time you/we/whoever reacts to it, you give it credibility.  THERE IS NONE.  We don't vote for the Presidency based on popular vote, it is completely irrelevant.  What matters is winning all the 04 Kerry states and as many non-kerry states as we possibly can.  MN, CO, NM, OH, FL, VA, WI, MO, NC, AZ...every one of these has House/Senate Campaigns working hard to take seats away from awful Republicans and in the process gaining votes for Obama/Biden.  Pick one or two, and help them out however you can.

If you are in Florida there are a handful of House races in the Southern Florida area, there is a great candidate in FL-8-Orlando (Alan Grayson), and a couple of great candidates working hard in the Jacksonville area.  These guys know they aren't likely to win, but they are working hard for every damn vote and any good political strategist will tell you that cutting the margin to nothing or winning Northeast Florida results in a win for Obama statewide 9 out of 10 times.

Grayson's campaign in central Florida has a phenomenal field operation running, they can make use of any volunteer time you have, and will put you $$ to good use if you have some to give. I have never seen such a thorough field operation from a candidate with no previous elective office experience.  Stoller previously interviewed Grayson and I have been volunteering a bit for them.

Interview by Matt Stoller:
http://www.openleft.com/showDi...

http://www.graysonforcongress....

Since no candidate I am willing to work for has come up with money to pay me thus far, I've been volunteering for the ones I do like however I can.  I am a liberal idealist with very high standards, I demand candidates be confident and proud Democrats, unwavering on civil liberties and defending the Constitutional Rights we cherish so dearly, and absolutely positively are intolerant of intolerance, and I demand they be willing to stand up and make an argument, not shy away from an issue because it is problematic or "dangerous".  That is how we lose, not just one election, but for decades on end, losing issue after issue until we have nothing left to stand up for.

If you know of a good candidate that needs work on strategy, messaging, policy, events, targeting, scripting, pretty much anything, have the campaign contact me and I'll do what I can to help out. (mpiscatellaATgmail.com)

Blue/Bush Dogs need not apply.  Why is it that only the moderate/blue dog candidates have been offering me jobs?  Maybe I need to make it clearer on my resume....PROUD LIBERAL, IF YOU ARE NOT, PLEASE DO NOT CALL!

[ Parent ]
Where are you located? n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Jacksonville, FL (0.00 / 0)
...but nothing says I can't be anywhere with some expense coverage and/or provided housing.

Technically, I'm in St. Johns.


[ Parent ]
What's your background? (0.00 / 0)
Besides Grayson, are you working on other Florida campaigns?  Just curious.
[ Parent ]
my other reply was both incomplete and mis aimed... (0.00 / 0)
I have worked on five federal campaigns prior to the 2008 General, including the Iowa Caucuses for Chris Dodd as Western Iowa Regional Director, Strategic Director (Communications/Expenditures) for Pete Ashdown's 06 Senate Campaign (Utah vs Hatch) and several other Congressional races doing everything from Campaign Manager to Fund raising/FEC to Communications...

I'd help out McGovern's campaign more, but I only seem to connect with them when we bump into each other at events.

[ Parent ]
but (0.00 / 0)
you are a Republican.  Why haven't you changed your party?
[ Parent ]
I am? When did this happen? (0.00 / 0)
I'm a Democrat...for reals.

I a strong liberal at that.

[ Parent ]
not according to your voter registration (0.00 / 0)
Call your SOE and check it out.  They say you've been registered since 2004 as a Republican and that you only voted in the Presidential and in the August primary.
[ Parent ]
Playing with the VAN is dangerous. (0.00 / 0)
That's not me, it's my father.

I registered last week, as a Democrat.  I have never voted in Florida.  In 2004, I was registered in California.

[ Parent ]
That's a relief. (0.00 / 0)
I thought we had a troll amongst us!  Take a look at the Tudor race in FL-12.  Doug's a great candidate.
[ Parent ]
Sarah Palin Is An Issue If (4.00 / 2)
we make her an issue.  As I have said before, she gives a fine speech but she is designed to be a distraction from the real issues of the campaign - the economy, Iraq, healthcare, etc.  Did you hear anyone mention the economy or healthcare at the RNC? And they doubled down on Iraq?  Is this really going to win them the election even if people like Palin?

Only if we get off message which is exactly what the McCain campaign wants.

This is the new ad the DNC released a few days ago in Michigan.  It has Bush and McCain repeating "the fundamentals of the economy are strong in unison."  

http://tpmelectioncentral.talk...

Its great.  Its exactly how we win this election.

[ Parent ]
Triangle . . . (4.00 / 6)
 . . . not yet complete, eh?

Thanks for writing my (would be) comment to Chris's post before I could complete it.

"We" have an audience of partisans and ideologues.

What "we" can do is motivate them to work on letters to editor, fund raising, volunteering and volunteer recruitment, GOTV, voter registration, etc.

Sixty days is too little time to close the triangle completely, but time enough to work hard enough to be able to say we left it all on the field.

"We" need to have a number of "blog black out days" when visitors to the blogs on our side find a front page that says, "Closed for work on the campaigns -- get out there!"



Visit DebateScoop for political candidate debate news and analysis.

"Closed for work on the campaigns -- get out there!" (4.00 / 4)
That is the best idea I've heard in a long time.
[ Parent ]
I second that (0.00 / 0)
I'd be willing to shutter my non-read blogs if others would join in.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power
[ Parent ]
I was thinking it'd be good (4.00 / 1)
if we had some sort of "volunteer-raiser" instead of a fundraiser.

You know how we have that thermometer up whenever the blog is trying to raise money?

Well, what if we could do something similar, but instead of money, it's pledged volunteer hours per week until the election. For example I know i'll be doing at least 10 hours per week until election day so I'd pledge to do that. We could have a goal or raising say 1,500 or 2,000 hours of pledged weekly volunteer hours. For those that are absolute recluses or can't volunteer, they could pledge money. Say $25/week until the last week of October counts as 1 volunteer hour per week ($50/week counts as 2 hours per week etc.).

Maybe I'll do a diary on this. I'd set it up myself but I don't know if it's possible to do the thermometer thing if you're not actually raising money.  

[ Parent ]
I agree they've been knocked off their game by this move. (4.00 / 2)
I'm not sure they could have foreseen it even if you said you did, but that's beside the point.  It's taken far too long to adjust to this.

The Obama and Biden appearances today were both needlessly defensive.  It's clear they're not sure right now what they're doing.  This needs to stop now.    

sTiVo's rule: Just because YOU "wouldn't put it past 'em" doesn't prove that THEY did it.

Will You People Grow The Hell UP, Already?! (4.00 / 7)
Jesus Christ I'm fed up with you and Firedoglake and digby always being unhappy that every single Democrat isn't going nose to nose with every Republican and screaming at them "MCAIN AND PALIN ARE GOING TO KILL US AND YOU'RE TO BLAME, A-HOLES - VOTE FOR OBAMA OR DIE!!!!" and insisting that because Obama and Biden aren't doing that the election is already over.

The guy is WINNING, and he's winning where it counts -- in the state-by-state tabulations of the Electoral Congress. PLUS, we haven't had any debates, PLUS, we haven't had any of the ad buys staring en masse, PLUS, and I know this is going to come to a big shock to so many of you, but YOU CAN'T WIN BY SCREAMING AT PEOPLE EVERY MINUTE OF A CAMPAIGN. We kind of tried that in 2004, and how'd that work out for us?

We have the superior candidate. We have the issues. We even have the money. The last thing we need are hyperventilating bloggers who scream about not doing enough after every Republican tactic you see. What we need to do is work our asses off and NOT to "leave it out of Obama's hands."

If that's the way you feel, I hear Canada's pretty nice this time of year. Just don't get a wi-fi connection. The last thing we need are more WATB liberal bloggers.

We must have been in parallel universes in 2004 (4.00 / 5)

We kind of tried that in 2004, and how'd that work out for us?

I seem to recall a Massachusetts Brahmin who wouldn't lower himself to respond to the uncouth allegations of Rove's hired hitmen, and then saw the election slip away from him.

As I recall, his good friend and colleague John McCain reined him when he tried to take on the swiftboaters forcefully.

I seem to recall that, in my universe, that guy lost.

BTW in the debates, Kerry benefited from his experience as a prosecutor, while Bush was clearly on the verge of flipping out.  This time, Obama has been unsteady in debates, his inexperience shows, if anything the debates may hurt.

[ Parent ]
Unsteady?? (0.00 / 0)
I agree Kerry was a very strong debater but he didn't connect with people which was his problem throughout the campaign.  I don't think Obama is unsteady at all in debates and he does connect with people.  In fact, I thought he did fine against Hillary and that was clearly a forum in which she excelled.

What forum does McCain excell in other than holding court with reporters in the back of his bus?

[ Parent ]
No (0.00 / 0)
I always thought Obama was a great debater, until I saw the responses of the people around me.

Hell I thought McCain's acceptance speech sucked...no one else did apparently.

How we see it may not be how everyone else sees it.  

[ Parent ]
I Agree Except for Canada and 2004 (0.00 / 0)
I think people need to take a big chill pill and relax.  It is the beginning of Sept and we have 60 days to the election.  In 1992, do you realize that Ross Perot had not jumped back in at this point?  There are going to be a lot of ups and downs b/w now and the election but the fundamentals of the campaign favor Obama.
[ Parent ]
Dude (4.00 / 2)
We've had the superior candidate and issues and been more than amply financed since '68, and yet, for some weird reason, we usually lost. How DARE the public not grasp how much superior our candidates and positions were! The audacity of audaciousness!

And while I agree that there's be an excessive amount of hand-wringing (of which I'm just as guilty as others), considering how soundly we've been trounced when our candidates refused to fight back or do so properly, I think that excessive caution is warranted in the instance.

We just want to win this, pretty or ugly. And he's not "winning". Only once or twice has he broken 50%, and he needs more than a plurality to win and be able to govern effectively (you do remember Clinton, no?). We won't actually be "winning" until he's actually won.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
since 68 (0.00 / 0)
not counting Carter, Dukakis, and Mondale of course.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
Who were ALL superior candidates (0.00 / 0)
in the substantive, policy sense, as opposed to the purely electoral sense. Ford, Reagan and Bush I were inferior leaders, from a progressive pov.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton
[ Parent ]
nice people (0.00 / 0)
lousy candidates.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
No Obama is not WINNING (4.00 / 3)
State polls are lagging indicators because they're taken less often than national polls. I guarantee you that if you polled all the swing states today, Obama would be losing most of them. It only looks like he's winning because the state polls are weeks out of date.

For all the flap about the electoral college, the fact is that it's almost impossible to lose the popular vote by more than 1% and still win the electoral college. Therefore, national polls (inasmuch as we can trust their accuracy) DO tell us who's winning the race. And right now, that's McCain.

[ Parent ]
For Chrissakes, buck up (4.00 / 6)
Did you think this was going to be easy?

And, btw, if you saw the Biden interview, you know that the NYT article does not come close to making Biden's point that he thinks conception begins at birth as a matter of religious faith but that his or anyone else's personal beliefs should not be imposed on others. If you want to be angry at anyone, email the NYT's reporter.

Biden isn't as smooth as the good looking liar you are smitten with but he would actually make a good vice president.  

John McCain doesn't care about Vets.


Praise? (4.00 / 5)
"I've rarely seen praise for anyone but the Obama campaign for what they are doing right..."

I didn't realize that by becoming a part of this campaign that I should be looking for praise.  I don't want praise, I want to engage people when I canvass and the ultimate is when they say "I'm voting for Barack."  

"We are just outside observers who can volunteer and do GOTV work and occasionally push something into the mainstream (as the netroots did with McCain's housing gaffe)."

Why say this with what appears to be disdain? [I thought the GOP has spoken for that attitude already].  As if volunteering and GOTV and calling out the MSM are small potatoes.  I must say that living in Iowa, I was invited to become part of an incredible organization very early on and not once was I made to feel like an "outsider." I was made to feel like an insider, given responsibilities, talked to about strategies, and even asked my opinion about my precinct.

I'm sorry, I'm just not feeling this post.  If you feel powerless then take back the power and do what YOU think needs to be done in your own way.

calm down (4.00 / 3)
I didn't realize that by becoming a part of this campaign that I should be looking for praise.  I don't want praise, I want to engage people when I canvass and the ultimate is when they say "I'm voting for Barack."  

Seeking praise is not the point, the point is that people assigning responsibility for this election are doing it inconsistently.

As if volunteering and GOTV and calling out the MSM are small potatoes.

They aren't irrelevant and it's good that it's happening.  I do GOTV work.  

[ Parent ]
people assigning responsibility (0.00 / 0)
who is that? I don't even have the foggiest clue who you are talking about, and i read this site every day. seems like you have in mind some grand responsibility score card keeper whom you are frustrated with. who is that?

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
Yes (4.00 / 3)
And this post does nothing.  And my comment on this post does nothing.  And there is nothing anyone can ever do about anything.

Woe.

Is.

Me.


dude (4.00 / 3)
I made it pretty clear that my point was restricted to messaging.  If you think you have control over message or any influence over the Obama campaign's message you are delusional.  You can help with GOTV and field and it's worth doing.

If you want to help someone with message try a Congressional campaign or state legislative campaign.  You do not have any influence over Obama.  Deal with it.

[ Parent ]
Of course we have little influence over Obama's messaging (4.00 / 8)
I wouldn't say it is exactly zero, as ideas can be generated from anywhere, but pretty damn close.

I wasn't trying to say your post was wrong, but that it was freak'n obvious and somewhat besides the point.  It is easy to think nothing we do has any impact, and basically it is true -- at least individually.

The whole emo feel of the post deserves a bit a pushback, I think.

Besides, from where do you get the impression you should have control over Obama's messaging?  They get somewhere between a gadgillion and quadbillion suggestions a day.  I'm not saying they are doing the best of all possible choices, nor am I saying they don't suck sometimes.  

So yea, we can't control Obama or his messaging.  But we can influence other things.  We can add impact to the overall narrative, push back against the press and so on.

But whatever, dude.  Sometimes I feel down and need to vent as well.

[ Parent ]
Also, (4.00 / 1)
We most certainly are in control of messaging because when we go out and talk to voters WE are the ones delivering the message!

Those receptive to listening are going to pay a lot more attention to us than to whatever they hear on TV.

[ Parent ]
We can still vent, no? Or has the Obama campaign requested that we not do that too? (4.00 / 1)
When the Biden selection was announced, my immediate, gut-level reaction was "Oh, shit, there goes the election". But, being a gut-level reaction, I tried to convince myself that it wasn't such a bad choice (experienced DC insider who knows how the senate works and where the bodies are buried, foreign policy and judiciary expertise--both essential for the next administration--liked by both sides, blah blah blah). As did we all (or most of us at least).

But I couldn't help but still feel that it was a mistake, that it made him look weak on the issues that Biden was supposedly strong, and in general, like he needed a father figure to give him establishment cred. Still better than Bayh, I think--Mr. Rah Rah Iraq War, DLC hack and uber-Clintonite--but Biden, while perhaps smart and knowledgable, is an insecure fool who talks tough but backs down from real fights (he could have blocked Thomas, and should have, but did not--that was, perhaps, the moment when the Dems revealed themselves to be weak at the core and utterly beatable). And he CANNOT shut up!

Eh, the audacity of caution.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

mostly (4.00 / 2)
It's just important to be on the record about this stuff as it happens.  We have to have an institutional memory of what's going on.
[ Parent ]
Agreed (0.00 / 0)
As a former community organizer, I have zero doubt that Obama realizes the importance of this, and that his people read progressive blogs, even if he's formally shut off most channels of interaction. I don't think that it's an ego thing. He's probably calculated that the potential downside of working with progressives and blogs outweighs the upside--for now.

Agree with it or not, a convincing argument can be made that that's a smart calculation, if you're a black man with what is to most Americans an exotic background trying to get elected president in today's political climate (see Wright, Reverend). But that doesn't and shouldn't stop the rest of us from plugging away. And I assume that he expects and wants us to.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
I meant that Obama was a former community organizer (0.00 / 0)
I have never been one myself.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton
[ Parent ]
I'm starting to think (4.00 / 2)
it would be a good idea to demand McCain release his medical records.

Obviously it would highlight his age and the fact that he's not going to be around that much longer. But more importantly it brings up the fact that his campaign thought letting a handful of reporters look at 400+ pages for three hours, take notes, and photocopy nothing, is somehow appropriate for the guy who wants to become leader of the free world.

I mean christ, McCain had malignant melanoma in 2000, and cancer surgery in February of this year, and he tried to hide it from us.

Just the sort of thinking we need (4.00 / 1)
I think this is a great idea and just the sort of work we should be concentrating on.

Matt---as rough as things look for our potential impact on messaging looks right now, even you discussed how inserting the housing issue into the debate worked. That was a big deal, and the democratic party ran with it. I think the best thing we can do right now is use that as a model for how we really can affect the conventional wisdom of what is worthy of discussion within the DC establishment.

That establishment includes the media but also the democratic party itself. The way those fools cater to the beltway consensus is an absolute joke, and that is why they are all falling all over themselves with praise of McCain before they make the most minor of attacks against him. They are afraid of the repurcussions from insulting the high school quarter back like hero of the chattering class.

What is slowly happening though is that the media is slowly realizing that McCain isn't really the hero they remembered. McCain's housing gaffe was so bad that the MSM realized something must really be wrong. This might be where inserting the health quaestion could come into play, as he has made so many other gaffes (especially on foreign policy issues) that it definitely is a possibility. I know Chris Matthews discussed McCain's mental capacity as a potential reason for why he couldn't remember how many houses he had. Plus, the Palin nonsense only reinforces the risk of McCain's bad health, and even Peggy Noonan was caught complaining aobut the craveneness of that decision.

It's time for the blogosphere to work to shift the debate--like we managed to do only a week ago! We didn't need the Obama campaign's help to insert the housing question, and we have to assume we won't have their help for any future endeavors either (especially if we go after something as backlash potential as McCain's health).

Beyond Iraq: A Time to Break Silence

[ Parent ]
SUSA Poll (0.00 / 0)
I nearly croaked when I saw this poll tonight.  How could there be such a swing in two or three days?  I just read a  comment on one of the blogs that the sample used for this poll was 40% Republicans, 28% Democrats, and the rest independents.  Well no wonder McCain is ahead.  Skew the sample in favor of the Republicans and they will win every time.  Can you believe the duplicity of such a poll?  I guess they an Rasmussen are determined to deflate Obama's chances by fixing the polls.  
Give it a few more days, preferably a week or two (0.00 / 0)
Palin stoked the base and stole Obama and the DNC's thunder, and the media have been 24/7 about Palin. She's gotten some initial favorable impressions among low-information swing voters, many of whom probably felt pity for her over what they perceived to be unfair LW attacks. Over time, as the RNC bounce and Palin euphoria comes back down to earth, and reality (or what passes for it) takes over, I'm sure that McCain's numbers will go down, and Obama's will rise. Palin might be "exciting", but she's unqualified and has lots of liabilities, and is not the one at the top of the ticket. Voters will realize this fairly soon. Polls will show it.

It's going to be Obama-McCain, with Palin and Biden a sideshow. And Obama has consistently beaten McCain, however slimly. Unless something big happens, I doubt that that will change.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
Yeah, it was a campaign bounce (4.00 / 1)
it'll go back down. We just need to keep plugging away, grinding down McCain's favorability rating and with it the myth of the independent Republican.

Take that "oh shit" feeling you had today and bottle it up, because even though an Obama lead will return, the numbers will surely tighten as we approach November and the McCain campaign rolls out dirty tricks, and work toward the day when this anxiety is a distant memory.

[ Parent ]
I get an "oh, shit" feeling many times a day (0.00 / 0)
Impossible to bottle up. If it wasn't I'd sell it and make a killing. ;-)

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton
[ Parent ]
Really? (0.00 / 0)
Over time as reality takes over

Really???  You expect the American public to embrace reality?  The public that half of whom believe to this day that Saddam Hussein was involved in 9/11?  Those people?

[ Parent ]
the likely voter screens are problematic (0.00 / 0)
When we discussed the last weird poll, 538 had a link to a study of how Gallup's likely voter screen affected the polls last time.  They showed wild swings from week-to-week, which did have any correlation to the final outcome.  

In fact, it's easy to see how this would happen.  Democrats don't watch the convention, say they aren't watching coverage of the campaign, and then would get demoted in their likelihood of voting.  Meanwhile, it's the other way around for Republicans.



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

[ Parent ]
Matt (4.00 / 1)
I showed my cousin the YouTube video of Obama responding to McCain saying "They think you're stupid"

My cousin is a lean Obama voter who wanted to know how he was responding to the RNC.

Her response was "Well that sounded arrogant. He's not going to win the election sounding like this"

Fighting back may cause a backlash in the form of "Why is mean old Obama attacking your grandpa and your mommy"

I don't think so (4.00 / 2)
All evidence shows that the Republican party has nothing but contempt for the American voter.  They do think we're stupid.  And after this ridiculous convention bounce, maybe they're right.
[ Parent ]
Because we are stupid (0.00 / 0)
that's my point. Much like the bitter comments, Obama spoke the truth and got slapped for it.  
[ Parent ]
Well, I read some recent articles.... (0.00 / 0)
...on the tubes that are coming out in print tomorrow... Bloomberg has one... anyways, lots of recent quotes from Plouffe and Axelrod saying exuding confidence and giving good reasons why.  I realize that they are paid to be confident, whether that is really the case or not.... however, I'm going to trust them enough that if they feel OK about things, I can at least relax enough to get some sleep...

I may even take a break from politics for a few days, 'cos everything seems pretty bad right about now, and I need a baek until things hopefully get better...

I do hope they get better...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

Yeah, thanks for this (4.00 / 4)
But as with the housing gaffe, when the campaign decides to drop it, there is no going back.  It's all up to them.  

I've been astounded and pissed off that Obama hasn't turned this into a household joke. Republicans have won presidential elections will less significant symbolic gaffes.  

Things are finely balanced now .... (0.00 / 0)
Well, I suppose after the long effort over the nomination and the conventions, we are all a bit exhausted.

No harm in taking a few days out to recharge the batteries. But be careful about the feelings of weary resignation to another Dem defeat. There's still a long ways to go, including four debates.

All this seems to be at time when the opposition is returning fresh and charged up for a fight.

Personally, I think the polls will swing back to Obama. when McCain's election bounce works through.

A phrase from George Dangerfield's "The Strange Death of Liberal England" rings in my mind. He described a landslide election victory for the Liberal Party (once Britain's largest party, now its third largest) as

"The last, desperate uphill charge of a beaten army."

And I think that's what we're seeing from the GOP right now.

McSame and the Walmart Mom (0.00 / 0)
I think more needs to be done to link McSame to the hardships facing Walmart Moms. There have been some good TV spots, including on lib blogs but they need to end with something like this: A woman appearing who says: "I am a Walmart Mom and McSame is not the change that I want."

Or "I am a Walmart Mom and I am tired of paying more for milk" -- show her passing over money.

Or "I am a Walmart Dad and I not want to send my son off to fight more wars."

Actually it isn't (4.00 / 2)
The last time Obama was really losing (NH in my opinion).  It was precisely because the narrative was wrested out of his hands and it looked like him and Edwards ganging up in Hillary.

Likewise I think a similar dynamic could be occurring now.  Not to say that I think that is necessarily a bad thing.  I look at it like a good cop bad cop routine.  Obama may be down in the polls while the attacks are going on, but I bet they have a lasting effect over time and that he goes back up.

In economics there are two rules.  Rules for long term and rules for short term.  Likewise the same applies to elections.  The short term still matters, but not right now.

The liberal wiki
Send an email to terra@liberalwiki.com

What other explanation can there be except that hubris is playing some part in ignoring (4.00 / 2)
all the work that has been done by researchers about how to avoid another defeat against the Republicans by the Democrats during a Presidential election.

Let's face it: the Obama campaign is running the type of campaign they want to all evidence to the contrary that playing nice at this level is a losing strategy.

Isn't it possible for them to STOP SAYING ANYTHING THAT CAN BE CONSTRUED AS A COMPLIMENT ABOUT EITHER MCSAME OR PALIN?

Yes,I'm yelling.

I'm pissed.

This race is too important for them to be allowed to 'win nice': it is a losing strategy.

DEFINE MCSAME AND PALIN NEGATIVELY

God knows there is plenty in their background to back up any statements made in that regard.


Probably not (0.00 / 0)
What me, Jane Hamsher, Chris Bowers, or any aggregation of lots of grasstops says doesn't matter compared to Joe Biden's sickening praise of John McCain.

But most of the electorate has never heard of any of you and even if they have, they have no face to put with the name. We all know in a perfect world with real objective journalists doing their jobs the majority of the electorate would probably agree with most of us. This country is quite a bit less conservative than the politicians who get elected would indicate and the news media would seem to suggest. But in this game, the presidential game, where popular votes don't decide the winner, the distortions created by our winner take all, two party electoral system tend to be even more magnified. I think they are doing a damn good job so far. Cautiously optimistic. All politics is local, right? That's exactly where you have control over the message and that seems to be by design in this campaign.

Biden's statement on life is not new (0.00 / 0)
this has always been his position. if he said something different he would have been labeled a flip flopper.

also I thought he gave a good interview in general yesterday morning. spun why the 'success' of the serge doesn't make a difference. and did a good job of calling bullshit on mcCain's 'change' claims. was it perfect? no, not in my opinion, but its pretty darn good.

so you isolate a few items and you act like their the worst campaign ever, and that you would be doing it so much better. maybe you would or not. but you do have to keep in mind that you just write a blog, and that if you were a successful campaign manager you would be that and not a blog writer.

what would the Obama campaign listening to you more look like? taking regular phone calls to check in on what the strategy should be? polling your site's readers? I bet you they read the site. That's definitely worth a lot more than you you assume here.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

What's your point (4.00 / 1)
Yesterday you went out of your way to rip open old primary wounds. Now today its about how much Obama has dissed the base.

I've been critical of the Obama campaign many times on DKos (not that anyone cares) and I too wish he had voted no on FISA and would take off the gloves. Fair enough.

I think it's important for us to keep on pushing how we can to get the Obama campaign to take some things more seriously.

But your diary seems to be about how bad the Obama campaign is.

Some of us are doing both-volunteering for those phone calls and canvassing and trying to what we can where we can to move the terms of debate.

Save the circular firing squad for November 6.

McCain's Longevity (0.00 / 0)
I think McCain's going to die fairly soon,

My scenario is this:  President McCain rapidly demonstrates that he cannot deal with the nation's problems, public anger rises as it dawns on them that they have been duped, and his popularity ratings fall to Bushian levels.  The media, angry at being singled out as a target by his campaign, has turned against him.  The old sod, already notably disintegrating mentally and physically, dies of the additional stress.

The Presidency is inherited by a woman who describes the Iraq War, with its destruction of hundreds of thousands of innocent victims, as a "mission from God".

my $.02 (0.00 / 0)
rather than taking the easy way out and attacking the Obama campaign when you are feeling overwhelmed by bad polling numbers, why not participate as the campaign is asking and use your smarts, know-how and bully pulpit to organize voter registration efforts between now and oct. 5.

your effort on behalf of edwards was remarkable.

just miles from your apartment is ground zero: virginia. help obama win viginia and you help obama win the white house.

there is a war to be won right in your own backyard.

thank you (0.00 / 0)
For praising the Donna Edwards race, which all of us did have some effect on.  The difference is that Donna wanted the help and made room for it, and the scale of the race was small enough that we could make a difference.

While volunteering will help in tiny ways, Obama is very clear that he isn't tapping his supporters for anything except money and canvassing time.  It's not that these skills aren't important, just that the big game changing stuff is in his hands and the hands of his small circle of advisors.  That's by design.

[ Parent ]
Writing about Obama's experience strengthens the image that he's an insider. (0.00 / 0)
Here's a nice overview of what's happening right now. The Republicans are provoking Democrats to make us talk about Obama's experience. That way he seems more like an insider.

http://obamav.com/rebuilding-a...

/Gary

But there's more at stake (0.00 / 0)
I think you're probably right about the influence of progressives on the campaign. This isn't that surprising since in general elections we generally find a race to the center. However, there's way more at stake than the general election. Looking ahead, there'll be a census in 2010. District lines will be redrawn. I think it's incredibly important that more non-Republicans are holding seats in state legislatures (particularly in southern states). And I think that the Obama campaign will help ensure this. Second, the GOP is facing Demographic Death! Its demographic base is becoming a smaller and smaller portion of the population. But this only matters if the increasingly large non-white base gets in the practice of voting. Obama can begin this.  
We are on the outside, but (0.00 / 0)
I don't think all is lost.  In fact, I think if the Obama/Biden campaign stays on message, continues to talk about the economy, health care, education, and a future with opportunities for all then things will begin to settle down and normalcy will come back to the normally unnormal ways and methods of campaigning.  In short, in my view, I thing things are looking pretty good.  The only thing McCain has going for him is Palin.  The only thing Palin has going for her is that she brought some energy to what was a lackluster, low energy republican campaign.  She has no real policy experience; she has never had to deal with a real diverse electorate; her fiscal background is dismal.

We simply need to keep talking--talking here doesn't help much, but talking to locals and folks we know does.  Obama and Biden will have to keep hitting [Paul's metaphorical] ball back into the McCain/Palin court and win some points.  The first debate is coming up...look for a honing of messages then.

frustration (0.00 / 0)
Guys, everyone is freaking out because of the latest poll numbers. Face it, if Obama was up 10%, Matt would not have written what he did. With that said, wait a couple weeks to see if we are in real trouble.  
what i would have written (0.00 / 0)
I would have written something slightly different.  I would have said instead that Obama is winning this but that you should not expect him to reward progressives.  He did this on his own very explicitly.

That's my general take.  It's on his shoulders, he wants it that way.

[ Parent ]
Out of our hands? (4.00 / 2)
Did you expect any presidential campaign to be in our hands? And, what the hell does that mean anyhow? Should Axelrod call you every day to check in? Should David be posting here asking for direction? Are you bothered that the campaign assumes we (progressives) will support Obama even if he runs a campaign we don't like? (Maybe because they assume we are smart enough to know what will happen if McCain wins.) With 60 days to go, McCain had to make a pick for VP so he could get his base; what does that say about his campaign?

Here's for the 'institutional memory' book: On September 8, 2008 progressives were whining that they couldn't control the message of the Obama campaign and the campaign wasn't treating them properly. And, besides that, the sky is falling.

Changing the "change" message (0.00 / 0)
If I recall correctly, in 2006, about 1/3 of evangelicals voted for Democrats, apparently just as sick of Bush and many of his Republican Congressional buddies as the rest of us. Somehow, I can't even imagine an evangelical NOT voting for Palin/McCain.

Obama had the opportunity to take populist positions that would have guaranteed both far more dramatic change than he, in fact, really represents, while also getting not just progressives, but independents who have some strong progressive beliefs excited. I can't help but wonder if he is not, in large part, a victim of his own success in selling a "change" message, even if the underlying substance of such a message was deficient. I get the feeling that he milked the "change" and "hope" message so successfully, for so long, that he felt confident he could throw progressives and independents with some strong progressive beliefs under the bus.

I'm just guessing, but the only area where he might still be able to strongly differentiate himself from Palin/McCain, in a populist sort of way, is on the economy. We already know he doesn't really care about the 4th amendment, but can he come up with any dramatic plan for economic revival, at this late date, that Americans believe would constitute real change?

I think so, but I doubt he'll go there. Instead of "drill here, drill now", he could, instead, call for a 'man on the moon in 10 years' level of commitment to cut our per capita consumption of oil for non-farming purposes by 90% in 10 years. He could also call for the nationalization of energy saving technologies, which are selfishly being kept on the shelf by, e.g., car companies. (I know this by virtue of a second hand account from my college residency advisor, who had a friend who was an engineer for an American auto company. )

I don't really want to get into this too much right now, but as one example: I bought stock in a company, back in the 80's, that sought to develop solar technology for market, being researched by one Alvin Marks of Athol, MA. You probably never heard of him, but he has over 100 patents to his name, which was a record for an American inventor, which he probably still holds. (Just checked; he died in May, with 122 patents). Unlike silicon solar cells, the polymer devices with micro antenna etched therein, that he was working on, were said to have around 80% efficiency (vs. about 22% efficiency for silicon).

I chatted with his ex-wife, Mrs. Aitken, at a stockholder meeting, who told me about how Dr. Marks' brother's chauffeur had been killed, how her current husband (who was the CEO) had been beaten to a pulp while in Europe on business purposes (IIRC, he died a youngish man the following year), a research building had been burnt down, and how, at a party given by the Kennedy's, one Armand Hammer seemed to have intimate knowledge of these events, and found them mysteriously amusing.

If you think some people involved with the oil business are only too happy to see 1 million Iraqis die, and the Iraqi government still getting it's arm twisted until the oil deals that suit them get put into place, Iraqis' rights to their patrimony be damned, AND they wouldn't beat up, threaten or kill Americans, also, well, guess what? You're wrong.

I don't think Obama will go there - he's certainly not impressed me as courageous. But if he did, he could impart new meaning to a "change" message, and in a way that is superior to any "change" in the energy area that Palin/McCain are offering. He might also help prevent a regional war in the Middle East, which could adversely affect the whole world far worse than anything we've ever seen; or even worse.

He'd also have a plan for massive conversion to air cars in urban areas, as well as any number of other, DRAMATIC "changes". You know, at least as dramatically different from mainstream politicians' positions as Palin. :-)

Obviously, he would tie this in to an economic rejuvenation - hopefully one where he uses the "P" word - protectionism. Do we really have to buy air cars from India? How hard could it be to manufacture 100% US made air cars?

As for explaining to a (rightfully) suspicious public why he's coming up with an 11'th hour energy/green economy plan, he can give the reasonable excuse that deteriorating relations with Russia threatens global energy security in a way that wasn't the case 1 year ago (which is true). Russia + Iran produce some huge percentage of the world's natural gas.

Of course, you and I will know that he's really doing this mostly to get elected, but hopefully once he does, he'll put principle before politics, be his own man, and a real leader.

435 Dem Primaries 2012
Coffee Party Usa
TheRealNews.Com

Obama is blowing this (0.00 / 0)
I am livid.  

All the weaknesses that many of us warned of during the primaries are coming home to roost.   Obama isn't being tough, he isn't playing well among working class voters, he is getting lost in his speeches.

All the promises that Obama's camp and their supporters made are not coming true.   There is not major map change.  Not one southern state has risen into play on the strength of the African American vote.  Red staters are not flocking to a "new kind of politics."

So we are left with the politics we have known for the last 10 year ... just as many of us predicted with would be.   Obama isn't playing these politics any better than Kerry or Gore.   He is trying to explain his way through a campaign with long winded laundry list appeals to voters instead of going after his opponent.   Just like Kerry and just like Gore.  

We lead in the generic race.   Obama leads in the money race.  Obama has a favorable press (imagine if Kerry had half of Obama's support in the press).  McCain is a WEAK and FLAWED candidate.  Obama should be up by 5 to 10%.  Instead he trails.

I think I am going to puke.

Correction (0.00 / 0)
McCain is NOT a weak and flawed candidate. That's wrong. He's the strongest candidate the Republicans have nominated since Reagan. Believe it or not, many Democrats and Independents LIKE John McCain, he's always been "their favorite Republican." He could go to sleep for the rest of the campaign and still win a significant number of voters Obama should win.

This isn't Obama's fault, this is the fault of the voters. You said it perfectly; People are NOT flocking to this new kind of politics, because they don't want it. Obama was played as a fool by the voters in this country. He was left thinking people wanted changed, and it turns out they don't.

Democrats ALWAYS lead in the generic lace and then do worse once their candidate is named.

As far the press, I'd say Kerry had MORE favorable press in the GE than Obama does right now. Obama had favorable press in the primaries. Once the GE rolled around, he lost it. Many of us predicted that would happen...no one listened.

And BTW, he was up 5%-10% a week ago.  

[ Parent ]
I try to help out McGovern when they ask me to... (0.00 / 0)
...which isn't that often.

I've been attending Jacksonville Young Dems and other Democratic events as I learn about them and can attend.

The Obama Campaign Is Out of Our Hands | 83 comments
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