There are now 3 tracking polls: Rasmussen Gallup Diageo/Hotline (come on, choose one name) Each of these organization goes about their business differently. Different sample sizes, different screening procedures (likely voters vs. registered voters), etc. We are going to ignore that and, like the two popular "poll of polls" (Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics), provide a composite of the data. We are going to average the results. Each of these organization uses 3-day rolling average. They do this for two good reasons: 1. They are not comfortable with the results of their 1-day polls. By pooling the data over 3 days they increase the reliability of the result they report. 2. They might be embarassed if they had to release all the 1-day numbers. In a truly tied race, it would not be unusual, given the sample sizes involved as well as modern-day polling challenges, to have one candidate up 4 one day and the other candidate up 4 the next, even if there was no "event" to explain the movement. The swings could even be greater, just by random noise in the data. So, rather than try to deduce each day's individual number, I will use the released numbers which are based on the previous 3 days. Interestingly, Kos says he will make all the data public on his site including those invidual days' numbers. When that poll begins we can add it to the 3 existing trackers (using the 3-days rolling averages). Because the Diageo/Hotline poll doesn't publish on weekends (they poll on those days but apparently couldn't afford a few extra bucks to put out the numbers 7 times a week) we will assume linearity in poll movement from Friday to Monday and extrapolate accordingly. Without further ado, here are the recent results: TRACKING POLL AVERAGE Sept. 5: Obama 47.3, McCain 43.3 Sept. 6: Obama 47.1, McCain 44.1 Sept. 7: Obama 45.9, McCain 46.2 Sept. 8: Obama 45.0, McCain 47.0 McCain is ahead by 2 points according to the tracking polls. All the data released today was done in the 3 days after the RNC and should represent McCain's high point unless this marks a true turning point in which case McCain could edge even higher and stay there. That's possible, such things have occurred before (ask Mike Dukakis about it). It's also quite possibly a true bounce in that gravity returns McCain to his previous position in the low 40s. Now, what about all the non-daily polls? Looking at the "poll of polls" can usually help but as of now they diverge. RealClearPolitics.com's average shows Obama behind 45.4 to McCain's 48.6 while the trend estimator used at Pollster.com shows Obama still ahead. I think, in 2008, it may be time for another new yardstick: The Poll of Polls of Polls. According to my advanced computational skills, whereby I add two numbers together and divide by 2, the Open Left Poll of Polls of Polls shows: Obama: 45.85 McCain: 47.1 So McCain leads the Poll of Polls of Polls by 1.25 percent which is close to the tracking average showing a 2-point McCain lead. Summary: McCain holds a very narrow lead at the moment which may be the new normal or may represent his high water mark for the 2008 election. Tune in tomorrow for another edition of the Polling Big Picture. (PS...there are finally some new state polls in the Quick Hits so I suspect we'll get a new Presidential Forecast from Chris soon and it will probably show some tightening since the last edition). |
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