I, as much as anyone, have been deeply distressed over the reactive nature of the Obama campaign, particularly of late. Yes, he's much better at punching back than Kerry was, but that's still being reactive. I was, therefore, chagrined to read the following front-paged comment from reader JA at TPM, and realize that it was right:
Josh, in dismissing the Gallup poll this morning, you describe the Obama campaign as reactive and "unwilling or unable to take the initiative." Huh? We just watched a GOP convention in which the nominee for the incumbent party agreed the election was about change. In the major speeches given by Republicans, speakers used the word "change" 30 times--more than any other theme, including "reform."
The McCain campaign wanted to frame this election on experience, but had to abandon that when the polls didn't move. The surge issue has likewise attracted no great interest. Although McCain continues to discuss it, as a theme, he has ditched it in favor of this murky "change/reform" theme. (By selecting Sarah Palin, the campaign has officially ceded the point.) This all works to Obama's advantage because if the discussion becomes one of change, it must necessarily shift to policy--the last place McCain wants to go. But he's backed himself into a corner.
Actually, I think both things are true. Obama has forced McCain to fight on his own territory at the macro level of strategy, but he has yet to sieze the advantage at the micro-strategic (story/meme-pushing) and tactical (news-cycle) levels. This may well change, but...
it hasn't so far. The push-back against the lying and the "maverick" meme are promising signs. These could well transition from reactive to proactive, if they are pushed hard, and pushed to the center of the campaign. With these themes at the center, economic issues--such as competing tax proposals--can be presented as examples illustrating the larger point of McCain's duplicity and his continuity with Bush/Cheney. But at this point, the ability of McCain Palin to get away with lying is the very heart and soul of their campaign, and it's what has to be attacked first and foremost.
There are promising signs on this front. Also from TPM:
Meme Taking Hold?
We've now had a week of blaring headlines and one-liners about Sarah Palin as the mavericky, pork-busting reformer from Alaska. But we seem to be witnessing the first stirrings of a backlash and a dawning realization that the 'Sarah Palin' we've heard so much about over the last few days is a fraud of truly comical dimensions.
The McCain camp has made her signature issue shutting down the Bridge to Nowhere. But as The New Republicput it today that's just "a naked lie." And pretty much the same thing has been written today in Newsweek, the Washington Post, the AP, the Wall Street Journal. Yesterday even Fox's Chris Wallacecalled out Rick Davis on it. (Do send more examples when you find them.)
On earmarks she's an even bigger crock. On the trail with McCain they're telling everyone that she's some kind of earmark slayer when actually, when she was mayor and governor, in both offices, she requested and got more earmarks than virtually any city or state in the country.
Think about that. On the stump, not a single word that comes out of her mouth -- or not a single word that the McCain folks put in her mouth -- is anything but a lie. I know that sounds like hyperbole. But just go down the list. None of them bear out.
When even Fox News feels the need to raise the issue, you know something's up. This could be a real turning point. The most significant questions--tightly connected--may well be (a) how to take advantage of this openning, and make sure that it continues to grow, rather than being spun away by the Reps, and (b) how to connect this promising possibility with the larger macro-strategic advantage JA pointed out above.
There are various ways this could be done, but I'd like to suggest one approach, by way of presenting two model ads, the first to broaden an existing line of Obama counter-attack, and the second as a potential followup to directly invoke the advantage JA highlights.
"You can't just make stuff up," Obama says, perhaps optimistically. "The American people aren't stupid."
In response to Daniel's diary, I suggested the following ad:
Voiceover:
"They think you're stupid. They think they can just lie with impunity."
Screen shows shots of McCain & Palin overlayed with series of
headlines and quotes about McCain/Palen lies from "mainstream" media.
"Just like the last team their party gave us."
Switch to shots of Bush/Cheney with lies--WMDs, Katrina (shots of flooding/devastation), "strong economy" (back to Bush/Cheney).
"They ran as reformers, too."
Headlines/guotes from Bush's "reformer with results" phase.
"They may be nice people to the people they like."
Back to McCain/Palin with puff piece headlines/quotes.
"Or the people like them."
More McCain/Palin pics, headlines/quotes all about McCain's "how many houses?" and his wife's $300,000 outfit.
"But the people they like aren't you."
Switch to pictures of ordinary Americans, headlines/quotes--maybe even a chart about how McCain's tax cuts benefit him, while Obama's benefit the vast majority.
To take the next step, I would let this ad run for about a week--maybe more, mayber less, depending on how things unfold--and the introduce this one:
Voiceover:
"Change. It's what everyone is talking about these days.
Shots of Obama w/ "Change we can believe in" imagery.
"After weeks and months of ridiculing Barack Obama for talking about it, and touting his years of experience instead,"
Continue w/ similar shots, but overlay with text reporting McCain attacks.
"even John McCain has jumped on the "change" bandwagon.
Continue w/ similar shots, but overlay with text reporting McCain's new "change" rhetoric, use of "change" repeatedly at RNC, etc.
In fact, he was so desperate to remake his campaign that he chose an unknown running-mate from the state of Alaska,
Picture of Palin with text about her as unknown, surprise choice, people like Romney upset, etc.
hoping her georgraphical distance from DC
Quick Google map shot, with arrow dynamically drawn from Alaska to DC, followed by shot of Palin and Steverns with text about their close relationship.
would make people forget that he's lived there, in one of his 4 to 10 homes, for a quater centiury-25 years.
Shots of McCain, text re Keating Five, quick shots of several houses, Google Map locations.
A running mate who supported the "bridge to nowhere" before she was against it-but kept the money anyway.
Shots of Palin, overlaid with quotes from papers criticizing her lies, citing that she kept the money.
A running mate whose pork-barrel projects appeared three times on his own list of disreputable earmarks.
More shots of Palin, overlain with quotes about her earmarks.
Now, at least, the choice is clear: phony, 'me-too' change,
Shot of Bush/McCain hug with text about supporting Bush 90% of the time.
or the real thing: change we can believe in."
Back to shots of Obama, crowds, w/ "Change we can believe in" signs.
Now, I'm not saying these ads are perfect, or that some tweaked version of them should be run. I'm just saying that these kinds of ads could very effectively be used as key elements in a two-step move to put Obama clearly on the offensive at every level, from the macro-strategic down to the tactical.
