What about InsiderAdvantage? (0.00 / 0)

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 21:36:34 PM UTC

I'll believe it (0.00 / 0)

when they release data on consecutive days and it's current.  

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by: tremayne @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 22:03:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah (0.00 / 0)

Odd they say "continuous" but seems the number is just for Monday.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 22:19:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen just jumped from a tie to McCain +3 (0.00 / 0)

So the rolling average would be a bit higher for McCain.

Most of McCain's bounce has been among Evangelicals, especially in the South, but some significant states are now tied within the margin of error, or McCain leading:

New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, (Michigan and PA which I would expect Obama to still win).

But, New Mexico is bad, since the easiest way for Obama to win, is to win all Kerry states, and then pick up Iowa, where he's comfortably ahead, then add Colorado and New Mexico for 273 EV.

If he can't even hold New Mexico, then there's no obvious path to 270 without Ohio or Virginia, and the polling is moving dramatically away from him in both states.

We may be seeing the end of the road for Obama unless he's able to change the dynamic of the race quickly and get a larger slice of his own base.

Too many Democratic defectors are costing him the race now that Republicans are 90% or more for McCain.

It looks like some conservative Democrats just won't vote for a black candidate, no matter who he is. The final tallies will tell. Kerry got 89% of Democrats to Bush's 94% of Republicans and won Independents by 1%. If Obama did that he'd win.

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by: Cugel @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 16:07:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hate to throw a little cold water on this... (0.00 / 0)

...but, if today's polling includes the DKos poll where the others do not, it really isn't a fair basis for "rolling" comparisons until all four polls are included in all samples.

And, if you take the brand-new Obama-leaning DKos poll out of the average, and concentrate on the other three polls which have been in the mix all four days, you'll find that McCain's lead, rather than dropping to +1, seems to have increased to +2 today, and seems to have stabilized at pretty close to that figure (past four days: +2, +2, +1.3, +2).

Don't shoot the messenger...

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by: regnaD kciN @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 00:15:43 AM UTC

If we start doing that then we would have to exclude other clear (0.00 / 0)

outliers such as Gallup, wouldn't we? This is my thing about how pessimism works. It's not that you are wrong to question Daily Kos, but why not Gallup considering how far out of whack it is?

Right now, Bowers has this poll up saying that its the latest result in a diary up thread on this site, this poll is clearly a little whacky, but he includes it. Why?

Or for that matter, why believe a 20 pt lead in NC when 2 other pollster show a race of 3 points difference?

I am all for realism. There should be a way to take out outliers, but that's not happening with the more negative polling, so why the positive polling?

For the record, I think all outliers should be taken out of the averages. I think its a cop out to average without taking out outliers because if the outlier is large enough in number it will skew the average. That's what I remember anyway from my basic course in stats.  

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by: bruhrabbit @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 00:37:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

New AP/McClatchy: McCain +1 (0.00 / 0)

http://www.kansascity.com/445/...

Nader 2, Barr 1

I was in their "nationally representative, randomly selected sample of 1,018 adults"

Among McCain supporters who are registered voters, 77 percent said they'd definitely vote for him; 13 percent said they'd probably vote for him; and 10 percent said they still could change their minds.

Among Obama supporters, 80 percent said they'd "definitely" vote for him; 12 percent said they'd "probably" vote for him; and 8 percent said they could still change their mind.

This is a Test of the Emergency Free Speech System. This is only a Test. In an actual Free Speech Emergency, I'll be locked up.

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by: Ben Masel @ Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 01:10:54 AM UTC