Rasmusen hinted that.... (0.00 / 0)

...they changed the partisan ID's of their tracking poll today, which would explain such a severe jump in one day...  It would put them on par with gallup...  We'll see how things shake out tomorrow...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

---

by: lord_mike @ Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 03:45:11 AM UTC

does that mean their sample (0.00 / 0)

will be stacked to benefit McCain from here on out?

It concerns me that polls may be oversampling Republicans and therefore priming Americans to expect a McCain victory. If that happens, it will be harder to do effective GOTV on our side and easier for the other side to cheat and suppress the vote.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 04:37:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think they are oversampling.... (0.00 / 0)

...a lot of republicans are coming home... I think it only makes sense to account for them in polling...  otherwise, it will be WE who are surprised on election day!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

---

by: lord_mike @ Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 05:07:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Correct (0.00 / 0)

Please note that Republicans (and by that I mean voters who vote for R's, not only registered R's) always, ALWAYS come home before Dems. Typically in presidential years they come home starting in August and peaking (mostly coincidentally) around the time of the conventions. Dems start coming home in mid-September and peak (again coincidentally) around the time of the debates. Which leaves us in our current WTF mode in the first half of the month. Now, Republicans also are more reliable home-comers than Dems. Sometimes (see Kerry, John) they never quite make it in a complete block. But short of some bad bad gaffe by Obama, we should see a few point swing in his favor by Oct 1, leaving us with a true toss-up to maybe slight Obama lean going into the final month.  

---

by: ColoDem @ Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 15:33:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

can you provide links to what you just wrote (0.00 / 0)

If not , why? I m not trying to be difficult, but when people say things I tend to want to know the basis for their conclusions.

---

by: bruhrabbit @ Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 17:01:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

can you provide links to what you just wrote (0.00 / 0)

If not , why? I m not trying to be difficult, but when people say things I tend to want to know the basis for their conclusions.

---

by: bruhrabbit @ Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 17:01:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know (0.00 / 0)

if that would be the case.

I think a slight lead for McCain is good for GOTV.  If it is that close, especially as we close in on November, money and effort will be focused on turn out.

If the polls are showing a minor, but statistically significant lead for Obama in the last week all talk will be he's likely to win and complacency will inevitably set in.

---

by: alffy @ Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 05:12:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

maybe yes (0.00 / 0)

you ask a fair question. no one knows, but some data indicates gallup is wrong.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/77...

I think many of you like to take the numbers to fit into your own version of things. Did you do any research or just went with what you feel.

I don't even begin to pretend to know what will happen in Nov. I do however question the point of not knowing that the breakdown regarding party ID isn't simple.

Des- in answer to your question- there are competing theories about partisan id. A lot of this is guess work and based on assumptions. One of the things I will say that makes me leery of their shifts toward the GOP is the registration of new Democrats in the last 4 years, and especially this year:

general discussion
http://swingstateproject.com/s...

virginia
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

SD

mitchellrepublic.com/articles/index.cfmid=28985§ion=news

black registration

blackvoicenews.com/content/view/42597/4/\\

There is a lot more , but it gives you an idea. Gallup has been making such questionable assertions recently-including claiming the GOP has a chance to reclaim the Congress. if that's what there numbers are showing thehy should question their numbers because that would require a GOP wave year.

Therefore, to answer your greater question- my guess is as long as its close as it is- GOTV would be unaffected as it would prevent complacency.  

---

by: bruhrabbit @ Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 05:32:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

will the gop (0.00 / 0)

be able to suppress the vote, absolutely, the question is how much and how many voters will be affected by the gop dirty tricks game america is all too familiar with.  

---

by: pc @ Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 05:09:14 AM UTC