A look at the 2008 Senate races, September edition

by: BruinKid

Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:48

Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous August diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

Tier I

1. Virginia: Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising.  Since July, the polls show unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) cannot get above 35%, and Warner cannot get below 55%.  Even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Fraternal Order of Police, two traditionally Republican groups, see the writing on the wall and have endorsed Warner.  Move along.  Nothing to see here.  This is about as lopsided as you're gonna get, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R).  Outside groups like the Club for Growth have been pouring money into this state attacking Udall recently, and the polling has now shown the race getting closer.  Udall, though, is still over the 50% mark with a statistically significant lead, and the NRSC recently cancelled their TV advertising in this state.  Udall also still has a massive cash on hand advantage over Pearce.

3. New Hampshire: Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002 along with some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in every single poll taken in 2008.  General rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble.  Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.  The only thing keeping this race from being tied at number 2 is that while Shaheen outraised Sununu in the first two quarters this year, Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage.  That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I'm not sure how much that money advantage is really going to help Sununu.

4. Colorado: Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall's son, and Tom Udall's cousin.  He'll face off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors.  Schaffer has been known for his close ties to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands.  At the end of July, Udall still had about $700,000 more cash on hand than Schaffer did.  Recently, though, some right-wing front groups have been running TV and radio ads filled with falsehoods attacking Udall.  In fact, 9News in Colorado went through one of those attack ads and found every single statement the ad made was misleading, false, or conflating opinion with fact.  But that may explain why the polls show the race getting narrower, though Udall still leads.  Still, even Schaffer's own internal poll showed Udall leading by 3 points, while Udall's own internal shows him up by 11.  So the truth is probably somewhere in between.  Then just this week, it turns out the latest Schaffer ad was made without his image in the ad, which turns out to be a violation of campaign communications law, and could cost Schaffer's campaign a million dollars.

5. North Carolina: The polls are showing two very different stories here.  Some polls show Kay Hagan (D) with a slim lead over incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R).  Other polls show Dole with a modest lead over Hagan.  But it's not just this race, the governor's race and the presidential race also seem to be showing conflicting numbers, depending on which poll you look at.  But something to note about these polls, a lot of them seem to be underestimating the black turnout.  In 2004, blacks made up 26% of the electorate, while these polls have a sample that's 22% or less black.  Conventional wisdom says black turnout will be significantly higher than in 2004, so keep that in mind.  The other thing is that these polls were conducted in the midst of McCain's convention bounce.  One would think that when they settle back down, the numbers will be more favorable to Hagan (and Obama).  Hagan's been keeping pace in fundraising, pulling in 91% as much as Dole did in Q2, though Hagan still trails by a little over a 2:1 margin in cash on hand.  Interesting fact, Hagan is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

6. Alaska: 84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but he has been indicted on 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp.  Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race.  His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972.  Now while the polls had already shown Begich leading Stevens before the indictment, Stevens was still able to easily win his primary at the end of August, and combined with McCain's Sarah Palin pick, the polls have suddenly gotten much friendlier to Stevens, and I don't think it was from his primary win over some no-name challengers.  Non-partisan polling now shows Begich only up by 2 or 3 points.  Still, the incumbent Stevens is under the 50% mark.  But the trial will go on, and jury selection will begin on September 24.  On the fundraising side, Begich pulled in over $1 million in Q2, over a quarter million more than Stevens brought in, though Stevens still has over $1 million more cash on hand as Begich.

7. Oregon: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) won a close primary over lawyer/activist Steve Novick to take on Gordon Smith (R).  The two quickly joined forces in a unity event to take on Smith.  Smith seems worried, as his commercials have him embracing Barack Obama and John Kerry and fighting Bush!  Then, he turned from trying to prop up his own record to smearing Merkley with a misleading ad implying that Merkley is pro-rapist.  Stay classy, Gordon.  It of course misrepresents what actually happened, and when it was introduced as a stand-alone bill, Merkley of course voted for the tougher penalties.  Merkley raised over half a million more than Smith did in Q2, but much of that was spent on the primary, and Smith had almost $4 million more in his campaign war chest at the end of Q2.  The DSCC has stepped in with a hard-hitting ad hitting Smith over his support for the Iraq War.  Most polls show Smith with a slim lead.  In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

8. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The recent polling presents a mixed bag, some with Coleman leading, some with Franken leading.  What is noticeable is that in every single poll since late July, Coleman is under the 50% mark in all of them.  For an incumbent, that's not a good place to be at.  Plus, Franken did outraise Coleman for three straight quarters until Q2, when they both raised over $2.3 million, with Coleman getting $50,000 more.  Through mid-August, Coleman still had more than twice as much cash on hand as Franken had.  Coleman also just violated the law about using his image in his campaign ads.  Last month, there was also the story about Coleman's sweetheart apartment deal with a Republican operative.  It remains to be seen how much the Franken campaign will highlight this, but his recent ads have definitely become much more hard-hitting.

9. Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year's Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01.  That's the seat that Travis Childers (D) won in May.  That has to be a shot in the arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D).  However, Wicker showed himself to be a prolific fundraiser, bringing in over $2.5 million in Q1.  But in Q2, the two were almost even in fundraising, each raising a little over $800K.  The latest polls still show this to be a tight race, with Wicker slightly up.  It may all come down to the African-American turnout in this state.  The 2004 exit polls showed they made up 34% of the electorate.  So if black turnout increases, that should benefit Musgrove.  And because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott's term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November.  That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi.  Even with Wicker ahead, it looks like the GOP is worried about this race, as Governor Haley Barbour (R) has buried the race at the bottom of the ballot, even after the local county district races.  The problem is that Mississippi election law clearly states that races for national office are supposed to be at the top of the list.  Would Barbour go to all this trouble if he didn't think the GOP had this race in the bag?  Fortunately, a circuit judge has ruled that all those ballots must be recalled and reprinted.  Expect Barbour and the GOP to appeal this all the way to the Mississippi Supreme Court, which unfortunately was the group that ruled earlier to distribute those ballots in the first place, striking down an earlier court order blocking them.

10. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008.  But how endangered that really is remains to be seen.  She was still able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP.  Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Neely Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he quickly announced he was running for the Senate.  (Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana.)  Kennedy has been fundraising quite a bit this summer, and cut a $3 million cash advantage at the end of Q2 to just a $1.6 million advantage for Landrieu by mid-August.  As for how endangered Landrieu really is, well, there's been a dearth of polls for some reason, but the latest Rasmussen poll shows Landrieu with a sizable 17-point lead.

11. Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats.  And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) won the primary, and Kentucky Democrats quickly unified behind him and pledged to do their part to defeat McConnell.  McConnell has a HUGE warchest of over $9 million, but Lunsford can afford to self-fund.  All the recent polls show Lunsford trailing by double digits.  Hard-hitting comments like this from Lunsford will be necessary if he is to make a dent in those numbers.  Lunsford actually brought in more money in Q2, but that was due to him loaning himself $2.5 million to keep pace; McConnell still had almost 7 times as much cash on hand.  But by keeping pace, if Lunsford can force McConnell (and his campaign coffers) to stay in Kentucky instead of going to help other Senators, at least that will help the other Democrats running for Senate.

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races.  These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Georgia: A crowded field of relatively unknown Democratic challengers to Saxby Chambliss (R) didn't seem to go anywhere, until former state representative Jim Martin entered the race in March.  Martin was the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, so he's run a statewide race before.  And thankfully, Martin easily won the Democratic primary over DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, who voted for Bush... twice, still doesn't know what to think about Iraq, and likes calling Democrats "losers".  Polling had also shown that Jones would've been DOA against Chambliss, while Martin at least stood an outside chance.  After winning the primary, Rasmussen showed Martin was only behind Chambliss by 6 points, though he's still seriously behind Chambliss in cash on hand.  Remember, Chambliss ousted triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland's face, earning him the nickname "Shameless Saxby".

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R), known for covering up issues related to intelligence and domestic spying for Bush, looked to be coasting to an easy re-election until former Congressman Jim Slattery entered the racein mid-March.  Given that late start, he still managed to raise over $250,000 in just the first two weeks, and brought in a decent haul in Q2 also.  Still, the polls have not been kind to Slattery.  There are signs, however, that Roberts is nervous, as his people lashed out, attacking Slattery for criticizing the Iraq War, considering he voted for going to war with Iraq.  Except... the war he voted for was the FIRST Gulf War in 1991.  And then, they attacked Slattery for missing a lot of votes in his last year in Congress.  Why only that year?  Because that was the year Slattery was back in Kansas running for Governor.  At their recent debate, the audience actually laughed at Roberts when he tried to justify the Iraq War by claiming the whole word got the intelligence wrong on Iraq.

Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R).  But even though Maine is a blue state, he has an uphill climb.  Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials.  The most recent polls have shown Collins' numbers going up and up, which has landed this race down in Tier II status now.  Allen's fundraising was pretty strong in Q2, with both him and Collins netting a little over $1 million each, though he trails in cash on hand by $2 million.  The DSCC has reserved $5 million for ad buys in the state.  And it will be needed, as the Maine newspapers suck at telling the truth about Collins.  I mean, really suck.  When they consistently let Maine GOP officials shill for Collins in letters to the editor without letting the readers know that fact, you know something's up.  Of course, Allen kow-towing to Collins' demands doesn't help his cause any, either.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA's polling.  State senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, could not be farther apart from Inhofe when it comes to energy and environmental issues.  Rice pulled in decent fundraising numbers in Q2, but still trailed Inhofe by over $1.7 million.  And while the DSCC's own polling shows it to be a 9-point race, the latest SurveyUSA poll showed Rice down by 22 points.  Those factors should normally make this a Tier III race, but veteran political operatives Geri Prado and Phil Singer joined Rice's staff, and curiously, Inhofe has just released an attack ad on Rice, something not usually done if you're really up by 22 points.  Because of Inhofe's actions, I'll keep this at Tier II.

Texas: Netroots Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R).  State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina.  The biggest news this summer so far is probably the Big Bad John ad Cornyn's people released, which drew mockery and laughter from just about everywhere.  Then the Texas Medical Association rescinded their endorsement of Cornyn after he and other GOP Senators blocked the Medicare bill that would have prevented 10% cuts in Medicare payments to doctors, and the American Medical Association said they were going to run ads against Senators like Cornyn who voted against it.  But that doesn't seem to have made an impact, and the few polls on this race actually show Cornyn gaining ground and going back over the 50% mark.  And the fundraising numbers are especially troubling for Noriega, with Cornyn finishing Q2 with over 10 times as much cash on hand as Noriega had.  And in a huge state like Texas, money will most definitely matter.

Tier III

Idaho: With Larry Craig (R) retiring after his airport bathroom... ah... incident, it's looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin.  While LaRocco finished 2007 with more cash on hand than Risch, he was absolutely blitzkrieged in Q1, with Risch raising over 4 ½ times as much money as LaRocco raised, and again outraised in Q2, leaving Risch with over 4 times as much cash on hand as LaRocco.  While a recent Research 2000 poll showed LaRocco down by 10 points, 42%-32%, Rasmussen painted a very different picture, with LaRocco trailing by almost 30 points.  A wild card in this race may be independent rancher Rex Rammell, who despises Risch, and may be able to pull away some of Risch's support.  Though it's not exactly encouraging that Rammell actually outraised LaRocco as well, even if that money will be going towards attacking Risch.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush's Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat.  The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring.  While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote.  That's had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race.  Of course, that doesn't take into account how he'd be running against the former governor of the state.  The last two Rasmussen polls show Kleeb down by over 25 points to Johanns.  The one bright spot was that Kleeb outraised Johanns in Q2, though he still trailed in cash on hand by almost $800K.

Tennessee: Former Tennessee Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke entered the race in late February.  It remains to be seen if Tuke can make this a real race against Lamar Alexander (R), who was also a two-term governor of Tennessee and the Secretary of Education under George H.W. Bush.  Tuke has a little over a quarter million on hand, while Alexander has over three million.

Democratic safe seats
Arkansas (Mark Pryor)
Delaware (Joe Biden)
Illinois (Dick Durbin)
Iowa (Tom Harkin)
Massachusetts (John Kerry)
Michigan (Carl Levin)
Montana (Max Baucus)
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
South Dakota (Tim Johnson)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats
Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Mississippi (Thad Cochran)
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
Wyoming (Michael Enzi)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand after the national conventions.  Things can still change, people who only pay attention after Labor Day may still shake things up, and we won't know exactly what the national mood will be 7 weeks from now.  Still, given that, these are my picks, and I'm sticking with them... until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it's so obviously a top tier race, why I'm being too optimistic in some seat, etc.  Have at it.  :-)