(Dark Blue (133): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (96): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (68): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (78): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (163): McCain +7.6% or more)
Here is the swing state chart:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%. If a state isn't listed, it isn't that close right now.)
* = Reflects polling from before the Republican convention
Just as he falls behind in national polls, McCain has just moved into the lead in the electoral college. This odd development is due to the information lag between new national polls and new state polls. Much the same happened last week, as McCain moved clearly into the lead in national polls, but never lead by more than 270-268 in the electoral college (and sometimes didn't lead at all). McCain's lead in today's chart probably reflects where the campaign was five or six days ago, just as Obama's swing state lead last week represented the state of the campaign a few days before that.
Hopefully, at some point, there will be tracking polls in the closest states, thereby giving us up to date information on the actual state of the campaign. For now, what state by state information we have can be found in the extended entry.
* Maine's four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls conducted entirely or partially within the last 15 days are included in the averages. There are two exceptions to this rule.
The first exception are states where no polls were conducted entirely or partially in the last 15 days. Every state has at least one poll.
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last 15 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
During the final two weeks of the election, only polls taken entirely within the past seven days will be included in the averages (with the same exceptions listed above, of course).
STATE BLOGS
